I’m extremely excited to watch UFC 254 this weekend, especially the main event.
To quickly recap last week, it wasn’t good. I went 0-3 (two bets included the Korean Zombie winning), but I’m going to get that back and more with this weekend’s pay-per-view (PPV) fight card.
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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Predictions
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov (-345) vs. Gaethje (+275)
I’m a fan of both of these guys, which doesn’t happen often.
Nurmagomedov (28-0) is undefeated, while Gaethje (22-2) has looked different since suffering his two losses against Alvarez and Poirier. Since then, he has reeled off four TKO/KO victories.
He just knocked out Ferguson in May, which was the first time Ferguson was knocked out.
I can’t see the Russian losing here. It’d be a big upset. If someone can right now, it’s Gaethje, as has the power and an NCAA wrestling background, which may allow him to stop some takedowns.
However, we haven’t seen Nurmagomedov rocked before.
Gaethje averages 7.74 SLpM (59% accuracy), which is incredible. However, Nurmagomedov has even better defense. Somehow he only averages 1.65 SApM (67% defense).
So, can Gaethje break the Russian’s defense? I doubt it. Nurmagomedov is fast. He’s very fast and he can wrap up his opponents and throw them to the mat before they know what’s going on.
Since Gaethje has such great power, I don’t think Nurmagomedov is going to mess around here. I like him to finish this fight, which he has done in his last two fights against McGregor and Poirier.
Best Bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov ITD (-120)
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Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier Predictions
Fight Odds: Whittaker (-110) vs. Cannonier (-110)
The co-main event is an extremely tight match-up between Whittaker (21-5) and Cannonier (13-4).
Cannonier has won three fights in a row by TKO since moving down to middleweight. However, this is a big step up in competition. Whittaker is on a 10-1 run dating back to 2014.
He recently lost to Adesanya by KO, but he bounced back by beating Till.
Whittaker hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2017, but he has some power still. Cannonier has been knocked out twice in his career. Whittaker has the speed and movement to win this fight.
He’ll have to overcome a 4’’ reach disadvantage, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Cannonier is slow in the cage, but he has power (9 TKO/KO wins). If he catches Whittaker, it could be all over.
However, I’m going with the fighter who will have the speed advantage again, not the edge in power.
Best Bet: Robert Whittaker ML (-110) at America’s Bookie
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Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun Predictions
Fight Odds: Hawes (-260) vs. Malkoun (+210)
Hawes (8-2) is making his UFC debut after knocking out Bestaev on Dana’s Contender Series.
Malkoun (4-0) is also making his UFC debut, but he has less experience against weaker competition, which is why I’ll be betting on Hawes to win this fight inside the distance.
The odds on him winning ITD are -130. You can get him to win by TKO/KO at +150, which is the most likely outcome, but he does have two submission wins on his resume.
I’m playing it safer and will pay the juice to get him ITD to cover me if he taps Malkoun.
Hawes has been moving around promotions knocking people out recently. In his last four fights, he has fought with Dana’s Contender Series, WFC, Brave and Bellator.
He has won all four of those fights by first-round stoppage.
Best Bet: Phil Hawes ITD (-130)
UFC 254 Parlay Predictions
Here’s my UFC 254 parlay:
Nurmagomedov ML + Hawes ML + Murphy ML + Ankalaev ML (+237 Odds)
There are some nice big favorites that should win at UFC 254, making parlays a great option.
Lauren Murphy (13-4) is 3-0 in the UFC since 2019 and has lots of experience. Liliya Shakirova (8-1) is making her UFC debut and will likely find herself in above her head in this fight.
Magomed Ankalaev (13-1) is fighting Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0-1) in a rematch. They fought earlier this year and Ankalaev won by TKO in 38 seconds. He should have little problem winning again.
UFC 254 Betting Lines
Here are the odds for every fight on the UFC 254 card:
Khabib Nurmagomedov (-345) vs. Justin Gaethje (+275)
Jared Cannonier (-120) vs. Robert Whittaker (-110)
Alexander Volkov (-180) vs. Walt Harris (+150)
Phil Hawes (-260) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+210)
Lauren Murphy (-230) vs. Liliya Shakirova (+180)
Magomed Ankalaev (-315) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+255)
Stefan Struve (-115) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-115)
Casey Kenney (-180) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+150)
Alex Oliveira (-115) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-115)
Da Un Jung (-345) vs. Sam Alvey (+275)
Miranda Maverick (-445) vs. Liana Jojua (+345)
Joel Alvarez (-168) vs. Alexander Yakolev (+138)
