UFC 254 Odds | Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje Picks

I’m extremely excited to watch UFC 254 this weekend, especially the main event.

To quickly recap last week, it wasn’t good. I went 0-3 (two bets included the Korean Zombie winning), but I’m going to get that back and more with this weekend’s pay-per-view (PPV) fight card.

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Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Predictions

Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov (-345) vs. Gaethje (+275)

I’m a fan of both of these guys, which doesn’t happen often.

Nurmagomedov (28-0) is undefeated, while Gaethje (22-2) has looked different since suffering his two losses against Alvarez and Poirier. Since then, he has reeled off four TKO/KO victories.

He just knocked out Ferguson in May, which was the first time Ferguson was knocked out.

I can’t see the Russian losing here. It’d be a big upset. If someone can right now, it’s Gaethje, as has the power and an NCAA wrestling background, which may allow him to stop some takedowns.

However, we haven’t seen Nurmagomedov rocked before.

Gaethje averages 7.74 SLpM (59% accuracy), which is incredible. However, Nurmagomedov has even better defense. Somehow he only averages 1.65 SApM (67% defense).

So, can Gaethje break the Russian’s defense? I doubt it. Nurmagomedov is fast. He’s very fast and he can wrap up his opponents and throw them to the mat before they know what’s going on.

Since Gaethje has such great power, I don’t think Nurmagomedov is going to mess around here. I like him to finish this fight, which he has done in his last two fights against McGregor and Poirier.

Best Bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov ITD (-120)

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Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier Predictions

Fight Odds: Whittaker (-110) vs. Cannonier (-110)

The co-main event is an extremely tight match-up between Whittaker (21-5) and Cannonier (13-4).

Cannonier has won three fights in a row by TKO since moving down to middleweight. However, this is a big step up in competition. Whittaker is on a 10-1 run dating back to 2014.

He recently lost to Adesanya by KO, but he bounced back by beating Till.

Whittaker hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2017, but he has some power still. Cannonier has been knocked out twice in his career. Whittaker has the speed and movement to win this fight.

He’ll have to overcome a 4’’ reach disadvantage, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Cannonier is slow in the cage, but he has power (9 TKO/KO wins). If he catches Whittaker, it could be all over.

However, I’m going with the fighter who will have the speed advantage again, not the edge in power.

Best Bet: Robert Whittaker ML (-110) at America’s Bookie

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Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun Predictions

Fight Odds: Hawes (-260) vs. Malkoun (+210)

Hawes (8-2) is making his UFC debut after knocking out Bestaev on Dana’s Contender Series.

Malkoun (4-0) is also making his UFC debut, but he has less experience against weaker competition, which is why I’ll be betting on Hawes to win this fight inside the distance.

The odds on him winning ITD are -130. You can get him to win by TKO/KO at +150, which is the most likely outcome, but he does have two submission wins on his resume.

I’m playing it safer and will pay the juice to get him ITD to cover me if he taps Malkoun.

Hawes has been moving around promotions knocking people out recently. In his last four fights, he has fought with Dana’s Contender Series, WFC, Brave and Bellator.

He has won all four of those fights by first-round stoppage.

Best Bet: Phil Hawes ITD (-130)

UFC 254 Parlay Predictions

Here’s my UFC 254 parlay:

Nurmagomedov ML + Hawes ML + Murphy ML + Ankalaev ML (+237 Odds)

There are some nice big favorites that should win at UFC 254, making parlays a great option.

Lauren Murphy (13-4) is 3-0 in the UFC since 2019 and has lots of experience. Liliya Shakirova (8-1) is making her UFC debut and will likely find herself in above her head in this fight.

Magomed Ankalaev (13-1) is fighting Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0-1) in a rematch. They fought earlier this year and Ankalaev won by TKO in 38 seconds. He should have little problem winning again.

UFC 254 Betting Lines

Here are the odds for every fight on the UFC 254 card:

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-345) vs. Justin Gaethje (+275)

Jared Cannonier (-120) vs. Robert Whittaker (-110)

Alexander Volkov (-180) vs. Walt Harris (+150)

Phil Hawes (-260) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+210)

Lauren Murphy (-230) vs. Liliya Shakirova (+180)

Magomed Ankalaev (-315) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+255)

Stefan Struve (-115) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-115)

Casey Kenney (-180) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+150)

Alex Oliveira (-115) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-115)

Da Un Jung (-345) vs. Sam Alvey (+275)

Miranda Maverick (-445) vs. Liana Jojua (+345)

Joel Alvarez (-168) vs. Alexander Yakolev (+138)

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at ScoresAndStats.com, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.


Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.


Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.


He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.


His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.


Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.


Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.


When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.