UFC 278 is on Saturday and will be hosted at the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.
This is only the second time the UFC has had an event in Utah. The first event was back in 2016.
The fight card will feature a UFC Welterweight Championship fight in the main event. Kamaru Usman will put his title on the line against Leon Edwards. This is the second fight between these two fighters.
There are some other big names on the card, including Paulo Costa and Jose Aldo.
Usman vs. Edwards Predictions
Fight Odds: Usman (-380) vs. Edwards (+310)
Usman (20-1) is 15-0 in the UFC and is the pound-for-pound top-ranked fighter. Edwards (19-3-0-1) is 9-0-0-1 in his last ten UFC fights and is deserving of a title fight this weekend.
The last time Edwards lost was back in 2015 and that was against Usman (Decision).
However, does Edwards stand a chance on Saturday night? It’s unlikely, which means we need to pick between Usman winning inside of the distance or winning by decision to find some value.
Usman averages 4.66 SLpM and 2.59 SApM, while Edwards averages 2.62 SLpM and 2.15 SapM. The champ will have a 2” reach advantage, plus a big edge in the takedown department.
Usman averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and he has never been taken down. He has manhandled a lot of his opponents and it’s tough to see Edwards changing that trend.
Since 2020, Usman is 4-0 with two TKO/KO wins and two decision wins. Edwards has never lost a fight by stoppage. I’m betting on Usman to win this fight by decision.
Best Bet: Usman By Decision (-110)
Costa vs. Rockhold Predictions
Fight Odds: Costa (-345) vs. Rockhold (+285)
This fight would be a lot more interesting if it took place several years ago. Rockhold (16-5) hasn’t fought in the octagon since July 2019 and he’s only 1-3 dating back to 2016.
Rockhold lost those three fights via TKO/KO against Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero and Jan Blachowicz.
Costa (13-2) started his UFC career 5-0, but he has lost his last two fights. He last won against Romero in 2019 (Decision). He has since lost to Israel Adesanya (TKO) and Marvin Vettori (Decision).
He didn’t make weight against Vettori, so let’s hope he does this week. Costa has 11 TKO/KO wins and his fighting style is simple. He walks down his opponents looking to land power punches.
Rockhold has a 5” reach advantage and can utilize kicks to keep Costa at bay, but for how long? If Costa closes the distance and lands a clean shot, it’s likely lights out for the veteran who is 37-years-old.
Costa averages 6.85 SLpM and he’s deadly accurate (59%). Rockhold averages 4.18 SLpM. Costa also eats a lot of shots (7.02 SapM), but Rockhold doesn’t have a lot of power (6 TKO/KO wins).
Rockhold may survive a round, but I’m betting on Costa to win by TKO/KO.
Best Bet: Costa By TKO/KO (-160)
Aldo vs. Dvalishvili Predictions
Fight Odds: Aldo (+115) vs. Dvalishvili (-135)
This is a tough fight to call. Aldo (31-7) has looked good recently, winning three fights in a row against Marlon Vera, Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font. All three wins were by decision.
Merab Dvalishvili (14-4) lost his first two UFC fights, but since then he has gone 7-0. Last year, he picked up wins against Cody Stamann (Decision) and Marlon Moraes (TKO).
Aldo has a 2” reach advantage, but Dvalishvili averages more strikes (4.26 SLpM vs. 3.61 SLpM). Aldo also eats more shots (3.74 SapM vs. 2.28 SApM). Plus, Dvalishvili has an incredible ground game.
He averages 7.30 takedowns per 15 minutes. His ground and pound is ferocious. Aldo has 90% TDD, but if Dvalishvili gets this fight to the mat, it’s going to be a tough night for Aldo.
Neither fighter has finished many fights recently, so my best bet is for the fight to go the distance.
Best Bet: Fight Goes to Decision (-188)
UFC 278 Prelims Best Bet
Fight Odds: Tybura (+295) vs. Romanov (-360)
Marcin Tybura (22-7) is coming off a loss against Alexander Volkov (Decision), but he was on a 5-fight win streak before that. Alexander Romanov (16-0) is undefeated and is 5-0 in the UFC.
This will be the biggest test yet for Romanov, but it’s tough to look past him against an aging veteran.
Romanov has landed 16 takedowns in his 5 UFC fights. He has landed multiple takedowns in every fight. He can utilize his power on the mat and he has also tapped out three of his UFC opponents.
He has multiple ways to end this fight, which is rare for a heavyweight. My money will be on Romanov winning the fight by stoppage and it’s my best bet for the UFC 278 prelims.
Best Bet: Romanov Inside the Distance (-120)
UFC 278 Parlay Predictions
Here’s my best parlay for UFC 278 on Saturday:
Usman ML + Costa ML + Romanov ML (+108 Payout Odds)
If you wanted to increase the payout odds on this parlay, you could also look to other favorites at UFC 278 that should win, including Tyson Pedro, Sean Woodson, Miranda Maverick and Amir Albazi.
You could also gamble a bit and bet on the following parlay:
Usman By Decision + Costa By TKO/KO + Romanov ITD (+469 Payout Odds)
There are some great favorites that should win on Saturday, making parlays intriguing. Usman will likely end up on the majority of my parlays, as I can’t see him losing the title to Edwards in the main event.
UFC 278 Betting Lines
Kamaru Usman (-380) vs. Leon Edwards (+310)
Paulo Costa (-345) vs. Luke Rockhold (+285)
Jose Aldo (+115) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-135)
Yanan Wu (+110) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-130)
Tyson Pedro (-740) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+540)
Marcin Tybura (+295) vs. Alexander Romanov (-360)
Leonardo Santos (+225) vs. Jared Gordon (-265)
Sean Woodson (-325) vs. Luis Saldana (+270)
Miranda Maverick (-560) vs. Shanna Young (+430)
AJ Fletcher (-155) vs. Ange Loosa (+135)
Amir Albazi (-410) vs. Francisco Figueiredo (+330)
Aori Qileng (-150) vs. Jay Perrin (+130)
Daniel da Silva (+155) vs. Victor Altamirano (-180)
