UFC on ESPN 16 is this Saturday (ET Time) in Abu Dhabi.
Last week, I ended up going 3-1 on my UFC 253 picks. I hit Royval as a big underdog and my plus money parlay hit. I ended up profiting +3.03 units on the event.
I’m now on a 15-3 run (+15.47 units) in the last five UFC events.
Let’s keep things rolling with this ESPN fight card.
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Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana Predictions
Fight Odds: Holm (-125) vs. Aldana (-105)
I feel like we’re getting a good price on Holm (13-5) to defeat Aldana (12-5).
The big thing for me is experience and stylistically, Holm matches up well here. Sure, she’s 38, but she’s coming off a decision win in January against Pennington.
Aldana is 5-1 in her last six fights and is coming off her best win yet – knocking out Vieira in R1. She did lose to Pennington last year, though, and she’s taking another jump up in competition here.
Holm has experience fighting five rounds as well. She has gone five rounds four times, albeit losing each time. However, in 2017, even Cyborg couldn’t finish off Holm after five rounds.
This fight should remain on the feet and Holm will pick Aldana apart slowly. Aldana averages 6.16 SLpM, but she also eats 5.92 SApM. Holm averages 2.75 SLpM and 2.80 SApM.
Holm has a slight reach advantage (1’’), but she’s normally undersized in her fights against the top women. This one goes the distance and Holm picks up a win.
Best Bet: Holly Holm ML (-125) at America’s Bookie
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Carlos Felipe vs. Yorgan De Castro Predictions
Fight Odds: Felipe (+200) vs. De Castro (-250)
These heavyweight fights can crush you if you’re not careful.
De Castro (6-1) is 1-1 in the UFC with a KO against Tafa and a decision loss to Hardy. Felipe lost his UFC debut to Spivak by decision. Both guys have power and this fight should end in the first round.
Felipe has 6 TKO/KO wins and De Castro has 5 TKO/KO wins. Neither fighter has ever been stopped in their career, but that’s going to change on Saturday. Now, how should we bet this fight?
I’m not betting on De Castro at –250 odds. You can bet De Castro by TKO/KO (+110), but I don’t trust him yet. Both guys are relatively new and will want to put on a show in the co-main event.
My best bet is on this fight not starting the third round (-165).
Best Bet: Fight Not to Start Round 3 (-165)
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Charles Jourdain vs. Josh Culibao Predictions
Fight Odds: Jourdain (-462) vs. Culibao (+352)
This fight card is tough and I have to go all the way down to the Jourdain (10-3) vs. Culibao (8-1) fight for my next UFC on ESPN 16 pick. I’m going with Jourdain inside of the distance (-140).
Jourdain is only 1-2 in the UFC. He lost to Green and Fili by decision and knocked out Choi. Culibao lost his UFC debut in February against Turner – suffering a second-round knockout.
When Jourdain wins, he finishes his opponents. All of his wins have been by stoppage (7 TKO/KO and 3 submissions). You can bet Jourdain to win by TKO/KO (+110), but I’m playing it safer.
Jourdain averages 4.58 SLpM and 4.15 SApM, while Culibao averages 1.50 SLpM and 6.86 SApM. He looked bad against Turner. Jourdain needs this win and I expect him to dominate.
Best Bet: Charles Jourdain ITD (-140)
UFC on ESPN 16 Parlay Picks
I really don’t trust some of these big favorites on Saturday and I recommend avoiding betting them all on parlays this weekend. I’m going to focus on just two favorites I expect to dominate.
Here’s my UFC on ESPN 16 parlay:
Jourdain ITD + Phillips ITD (+172 Odds)
Kyler Phillips (7-1) is fighting Cameron Else (10-4). Else is making his UFC debut on short notice. He has solid striking (6 TKO/KO wins), but Phillips will have a considerable grappling edge.
Else has been knocked out twice and submitted once in his pro career. Phillips should be able to win this fight by stoppage, but he does need to be careful about Else’s power.
UFC on ESPN 16 Betting Lines
Holly Holm (-125) vs. Irene Aldana (-105)
Yorgan De Castro (-250) vs. Carlos Felipe (+200)
Germaine De Randamie (-150) vs. Julianna Pena (+120)
Dusko Todorovic (-325) vs. Dequan Townsend (+255)
Kyler Phillips (-462) vs. Cameron Else (+352)
Court Mcgee (-140) vs. Carlos Condit (+110)
Charles Jourdain (-462) vs. Josh Culibao (+352)
Jordan Williams (-145) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+115)
Loma Lookboonmee (-150) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+120)
Casey Kenney (-325) vs. Heili Alateng (+255)
Jessin Ayari (-120) vs. Luigi Vendramini (-110)
