UFC on ESPN 23 (UFC Vegas 25) is on Saturday at the APEX Facility in Las Vegas.
What a day of sports on the schedule tomorrow. There’s a full day of horse racing, concluding with the Kentucky Derby and then we have a UFC fight card with a few intriguing fights.
UFC 261 didn’t go great. Usman won, but we had him by decision. Zhang lost. Shevchenko ended up winning ITD for us and we also split the two underdog picks. We went 2-4 (-1.85 units).
We’re now 6-4 (+3.44 units) this year and will look to bounce back this week.
Reyes vs. Prochazka Odds and Predictions
Fight Odds: Reyes (+110) vs. Prochazka (-130)
In the main event, Dominick Reyes (12-2) will fight Jiri Prochazka (27-3-1).
Prochazka won his UFC debut by knockout against Oezdemir. It was his 24th TKO/KO win. He has tons of power, but the main concern coming into this fight is his poor defense.
Oezdemir was outstriking Prochazka (41-33) before the Czech fighter landed the KO.
Reyes has lost his last two fights. The loss to Jones was expected, but then he was knocked out by Blachowicz. With a 3’’ reach advantage, Prochazka will find a way to win by TKO/KO.
With the money line odds being so close, there’s no reason not to simply bet on the ML.
Best Bet: Prochazka ML (-130)
Swanson vs. Chikadze Odds and Predictions
Fight Odds: Swanson (+150) vs. Chikadze (-170)
The co-main event features Cub Swanson (27-11) fighting Giga Chikadze (12-2).
This is going to be a close fight. Swanson had a four-fight losing streak between 2017-19, but he has bounced back with wins against Gracie (Decision) and Pineda (KO).
Chikadze is 5-0 in the UFC with four decisions. He won his last fight by TKO against Krause-Simmons in the first round. Chikadze likes to pressure his opponents with a fast pace.
That’ll likely work here against Swanson. Swanson lacks KO power and if this goes the distance, it’s likely the favorite will outpoint the underdog. Chikadze also has a 4” reach advantage.
If Swanson can land a takedown or two, he could have a chance to win a decision, but he has only landed one takedown in his last six fights. Hop on Chikadze ML before the odds get any worse.
Best Bet: Chikadze ML (-170)
Jacoby vs. Cutelaba Odds and Predictions
Fight Odds: Jacoby (+120) vs. Cutelaba (-140)
I’m siding with Ion Cutelaba (15-6-0-1) as a small favorite against Dustin Jacoby (14-5).
Jacoby is 2-0 in the UFC with wins against Ledet (TKO) and Grishin (Decision). Cutelaba is only 4-5 in the UFC and he’s coming off two TKO/KO losses against Ankalaev in 2020.
Cutelaba needs a win here to start building some momentum. He’s the more active striker (5.10 SLpM vs. 3.68 SLpM) and he has power, but the problem has been his poor cardio.
Cutelaba has shown he can have success when landing takedowns and he should look to take this fight down to the mat, as Jacoby has struggled when fighting from his back.
Best Bet: Cutelaba ML (-140)
Jotko vs. Strickland Odds and Predictions
Fight Odds: Jotko (+230) vs. Strickland (-270)
Sean Strickland (22-3) is a big favorite in his fight against Krzysztof Jotko (22-4).
Jotko is no slouch and he has reeled off three consecutive wins, but they’ve come against weaker competition. Prior to the win streak, Jotko was knocked out by Hall and Tavares.
Strickland is on a three fight win streak as well with two of those wins by TKO. His recent win against Allen was impressive and I expect him to build off that with another knockout win.
We can bet on Strickland to win inside the distance (ITD) at +190 odds. Strickland averages 5.09 SLpM (Jotko averages 2.98 SLpM) and he has better striking defense.
Best Bet: Strickland ITD (+190)
UFC Vegas 25 Parlay Picks
Here’s my best moneyline parlay for UFC on ESPN 23 tomorrow night:
Dvalishvili ML + Strickland ML + Chikadze ML (+203 Odds)
Merab Dvalishvili (12-4) lost his first two UFC fights, but is now on a 5-0 run. He just defeated Dodson, so I don’t see him having a problem with Cody Stamann (19-3-1) who just lost to Rivera.
Dvalishvili is a better grappler with a better motor. He just has to avoid Stamann’s power.
UFC Vegas 25 Betting Odds
Jiri Prochazka (-130) vs. Dominick Reyes (+110)
Giga Chikadze (-170) vs. Cub Swanson (+150)
Ion Cutelaba (-140) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+120)
Sean Strickland (-270) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (+230)
Merab Dvalishvili (-255) vs. Cody Stamann (+215)
Poliana Botelho (-260) vs. Luana Carolina (+220)
Kuana Pinheiro (-160) vs. Randa Markos (+140)
Gabriel Benitez (-190) vs. Jonathan Pearce (+165)
Kai Kamaka (-145) vs. Tj Brown (+125)
Loma Lookboonmee (-390) vs. Sam Hughes (+320)
Andreas Michailidis (-230) vs. K.B. Bhullar (+190)
Luke Sanders (-140) vs. Felipe Colares (+120)