UFC on ESPN+ 38 is this Saturday and will take place at Fight Island (Abu Dhabi).
I ended up going 1-3 on my UFC picks last week. My parlay hit, but my straight bets all lost. I ended up losing –2.41 units. I’ve given back about 5 units of profit from this year the last two events.
I’m going to take it a bit easier this week, as I don’t feel too strongly about many of the fights. Plus, we have the highly anticipated UFC 254 (Khabib vs. Gaethje!) next weekend.
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Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung Picks
Fight Odds: Ortega (+160) vs. Jung (-190)
Ortega (14-1-0-1) hasn’t fought since December 2018 when he lost to Holloway. He ate 290 strikes in that fight and now he faces Jung (16-5) who is also an aggressive striker, albeit with more power.
The Korean Zombie went 2-0 in 2019 with wins against Carneiro and Edgar. Both wins were by first-round TKO/KO. Ortega has also stoppage wins against both of these fighters in his career as well.
Jung averages 4.58 SLpM (41% Accuracy) and Ortega averages 4.07 SLpM (33% Accuracy). Jung will also have a 3’’ reach advantage. Ortega has poor striking defense as well. He averages 7.36 SApM (50% Defense) and Jung averages only 3.73 SApM (60% Defense).
Ortega’s best chance is to take this fight to the mat, but he averages less takedowns than Jung and only lands 16% of his takedown attempts. I’ll be betting on Jung to win inside the distance (ITD).
We can bet on Jung to win ITD at even money (+100).
Best Bet: Chan Sung Jung ITD (+100)
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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jessica Andrade Picks
Fight Odds: Chookagian (+125) vs. Andrade (-155)
Chookagian (14-3) is a live underdog in the co-main event. Andrade (20-8) is on a two-fight losing streak with the losses coming against Zhang and Namajunas – both tough fighters.
Chookagian is 3-1 in the UFC since 2019. This year, she lost to Valentina Shevchenko and then she was able to defeat Antonio Shevchenko. She comes into this fight with a huge 6’’ reach advantage.
Andrade will come out firing early on in this fight. She averages 6.40 SLpM and 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she often gasses out in her fights if she doesn’t win by an early stoppage.
“Blonde Fighter” averages 4.19 SLpM. She has better striking defense than Andrade, though. She only averages 4.20 SApM (62% Defense) and Andrade averages 5.30 SApM (53% Defense).
While there’s a chance Andrade finishes Chookagian, I expect Blonde Fighter to win by decision.
Best Bet: Katlyn Chookagian ML (+125) at America’s Bookie
UFC on ESPN+ 38 Parlay Picks
Here’s my UFC on ESPN+ 38 parlay:
Jung ML + Crute ML + Almeida ML + Krause ML (+447)
We’re going for a bigger paying UFC parlay this week.
All four fighters are favored in their fights. Crute is a big ML favorite and should win by stoppage early on against Bukauskas. Almeida and Krause are smaller favorites, but should get the job done.
UFC on ESPN+ 38 Betting Lines
Here are the betting odds for every UFC Fight Island 6 fight:
Chan Sung Jung (-190) vs. Brian Ortega (+160)
Jessica Andrade (-155) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+125)
Jimmy Crute (-340) vs. Modestas Baukauskas (+270)
James Krause (-162) vs. Claudio Silva (+132)
Thomas Almeida (-140) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+110)
Mateusz Gamrot (-310) vs. Guram Kutateladze (+250)
Gillian Robertson (-225) vs. Poliana Botelho (+175)
Jun Yong Park (-260) vs. John Phillips (+210)
Jamie Mullarkey (-150) vs. Fares Ziam (+120)
Maxim Grishin (-355) vs. Gadzhmurad Antigulov (+275)
Said Nurmagomedov (-425) vs. Mark Striegl (+325)
