UFC on ESPN+ 38 Odds, Predictions and Preview

UFC on ESPN+ 38 is this Saturday and will take place at Fight Island (Abu Dhabi).

I ended up going 1-3 on my UFC picks last week. My parlay hit, but my straight bets all lost. I ended up losing –2.41 units. I’ve given back about 5 units of profit from this year the last two events.

I’m going to take it a bit easier this week, as I don’t feel too strongly about many of the fights. Plus, we have the highly anticipated UFC 254 (Khabib vs. Gaethje!) next weekend.


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Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung Picks

Fight Odds: Ortega (+160) vs. Jung (-190)

Ortega (14-1-0-1) hasn’t fought since December 2018 when he lost to Holloway. He ate 290 strikes in that fight and now he faces Jung (16-5) who is also an aggressive striker, albeit with more power.

The Korean Zombie went 2-0 in 2019 with wins against Carneiro and Edgar. Both wins were by first-round TKO/KO. Ortega has also stoppage wins against both of these fighters in his career as well.

Jung averages 4.58 SLpM (41% Accuracy) and Ortega averages 4.07 SLpM (33% Accuracy). Jung will also have a 3’’ reach advantage. Ortega has poor striking defense as well. He averages 7.36 SApM (50% Defense) and Jung averages only 3.73 SApM (60% Defense).

Ortega’s best chance is to take this fight to the mat, but he averages less takedowns than Jung and only lands 16% of his takedown attempts. I’ll be betting on Jung to win inside the distance (ITD).

We can bet on Jung to win ITD at even money (+100).

Best Bet: Chan Sung Jung ITD (+100)


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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jessica Andrade Picks

Fight Odds: Chookagian (+125) vs. Andrade (-155)

Chookagian (14-3) is a live underdog in the co-main event. Andrade (20-8) is on a two-fight losing streak with the losses coming against Zhang and Namajunas – both tough fighters.

Chookagian is 3-1 in the UFC since 2019. This year, she lost to Valentina Shevchenko and then she was able to defeat Antonio Shevchenko. She comes into this fight with a huge 6’’ reach advantage.

Andrade will come out firing early on in this fight. She averages 6.40 SLpM and 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she often gasses out in her fights if she doesn’t win by an early stoppage.

“Blonde Fighter” averages 4.19 SLpM. She has better striking defense than Andrade, though. She only averages 4.20 SApM (62% Defense) and Andrade averages 5.30 SApM (53% Defense).

While there’s a chance Andrade finishes Chookagian, I expect Blonde Fighter to win by decision.

Best Bet: Katlyn Chookagian ML (+125) at America’s Bookie

UFC on ESPN+ 38 Parlay Picks

Here’s my UFC on ESPN+ 38 parlay:

Jung ML + Crute ML + Almeida ML + Krause ML (+447)

We’re going for a bigger paying UFC parlay this week.

All four fighters are favored in their fights. Crute is a big ML favorite and should win by stoppage early on against Bukauskas. Almeida and Krause are smaller favorites, but should get the job done.

UFC on ESPN+ 38 Betting Lines

Here are the betting odds for every UFC Fight Island 6 fight:

Chan Sung Jung (-190) vs. Brian Ortega (+160)

Jessica Andrade (-155) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+125)

Jimmy Crute (-340) vs. Modestas Baukauskas (+270)

James Krause (-162) vs. Claudio Silva (+132)

Thomas Almeida (-140) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+110)

Mateusz Gamrot (-310) vs. Guram Kutateladze (+250)

Gillian Robertson (-225) vs. Poliana Botelho (+175)

Jun Yong Park (-260) vs. John Phillips (+210)

Jamie Mullarkey (-150) vs. Fares Ziam (+120)

Maxim Grishin (-355) vs. Gadzhmurad Antigulov (+275)

Said Nurmagomedov (-425) vs. Mark Striegl (+325)

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at ScoresAndStats.com, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.

 

Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.

 

Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.

 

He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.

 

His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.

 

Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.

 

Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.

 

When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.