UFC on ESPN+ 39 Odds: Hall vs. Silva Picks

The UFC is heading back to Las Vegas for UFC on ESPN+ 39 (UFC Vegas 12) on Saturday.

Anderson Silva and Uriah Hall will fight in the main event. Andre Fili is fighting in the co-main event and then there are some big favorites that will make for a great UFC on ESPN+ 39 parlay bet.

Last week was UFC 254 and I went 4-0 for +5.37 units. Khabib won, but he also retired from the UFC, which will definitely make the lightweight division wide open heading into 2021.


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Uriah Hall vs. Anderson Silva Predictions

Fight Odds: Hall (-230) vs. Silva (+195)

Silva (34-10-0-1) is a fighter, there’s no denying that, but he should have retired years ago.

The 45-year-old Brazilian has only won a single fight since 2012. Hard to believe? Since 2012, Silva is 1-6-0-1 with the lone win coming by decision against Brunson back in 2017.

He shouldn’t have even won the Brunson fight in my opinion, but that’s what happens when you let a fight go to the judges’ scorecards. Silva has been finished five times in his career.

Since the Brunson win, Silva has losses against Adesanya (Decision) and Cannonier (TKO).

Hall (15-9) has been around a long time as well, but he has never done much of anything. When he steps up in competition, he often gets destroyed. He has been knocked out four times.

Hall has 11 TKO/KO wins, but Silva has proven durable. Hall has a 2’’ reach advantage and averages more strikes (3.31 SLpM vs. 3.04 SLpM), but Silva has better defense (1.98 SApM vs. 3.57 SApM).

This is also a five-round fight, which doesn’t bode well for Silva. Will he have enough in the tank? My money is on Hall winning by stoppage even though he’s a difficult fighter to trust.

Best Bet: Uriah Hall ITD (+130)


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Bryce Mitchell vs. Andre Fili Predictions

Fight Odds: Mitchell (-142) vs. Fili (+122)

Mitchell (13-0) comes into this fight with a 4-0 UFC record. He’s a jiu-jitsu specialist with amazing submission skills. He submitted Sayles last year with a twister submission, which is rarely seen.

Fili (21-7) is a UFC veteran with a 9-6 promotional record. He has 9 career TKO/KO wins, but only one since 2016. Fili will have a 4’’ reach advantage and he averages 3.90 SLpM.

However, Mitchell has great defense (58%) and only averages 1.36 SApM. The chances of this fighting hitting the mat are high and if that happens, Mitchell will have a huge edge.

Fili has been tapped out twice in his career and Mitchell has 9 submission wins. Fili has the striking edge, but Mitchell knows he has to take the fight to the mat to remain undefeated.

Best Bet: Bryce Mitchell ML (-142) at America’s Bookie

Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Alexander Hernandez Predictions

Fight Odds: Gruetzemacher (+320) vs. Hernandez (-420)

The odds on Hernandez winning by stoppage at +177 seem extremely +EV for this week.

Hernandez (11-3) is only 3-2 in the UFC and he has been knocked out by Cerrone and Dober in two of his last three fights. Gruetzemacher (14-3) hasn’t fought since beating Lauzon back in 2018.

Prior to the Lauzon win, he was 1-2 in the UFC with submission losses to Skelly and Ramos.

Hernandez has a 4’’ reach advantage and the edge in takedowns. He averages 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and Gritz has been taken down multiple times in three of his four UFC fights.

After being knocked out by Dober, Hernandez needs his first stoppage win in the UFC and we’re getting a great price here against an opponent that hasn’t fought in over two years.

Best Bet: Alexander Hernandez ITD (+177)


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UFC Vegas 12 Parlay Predictions

Here’s my best parlay bet for UFC on ESPN+ 39 on Saturday.

Hernandez ML + Hardy ML + Green ML (+116 Odds)

This main card parlay features three big betting favorites. When we parlay them together, we’re getting plus money if they all win. While heavyweight fights also pose some risk, I’m confident in this parlay.

Greg Hardy (6-2-0-1) is fighting Maurice Greene (9-4). This fight will likely go to a decision and won’t be overly exciting, but if Hardy can avoid the takedowns, he’ll piece Greene apart.

Bobby Green is fighting (27-10-1) Thiago Moises (13-4). Green is 3-0 in 2020 and has been turning his career around, but this is a tough fight. However, Green should dominate with his striking.

UFC on ESPN+ 39 Betting Lines

Here are the betting lines (understanding betting odds) for every fight on the UFC Vegas 12 card:

Uriah Hall (-230) vs. Anderson Silva (+195)

Bryce Mitchell (-142) vs. Andre Fili (+122)

Greg Hardy (-340) vs. Maurice Greene (+265)

Bobby Green (-285) vs. Thiago Moises (+245)

Alexander Hernandez (-420) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+320)

Adrian Yanez (-450) vs. Victor Rodriguez (+350)

Sean Strickland (-350) vs. Jack Marshman (+285)

Jason Witt (-143) vs. Cole Williams (+123)

Dustin Jacoby (-350) vs. Justin Ledet (+285)

Cortney Casey (-255) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+215)

Miles Johns (-150) vs. Kevin Natividad (+130)

Kevin Holland vs. TBA

About the Author

Scott is one of our newest writer and handicapper here at ScoresAndStats.com, but he has been writing sports betting content for more than a decade online. His work has been featured on many websites.

 

Scott is a millennial (born in 1989) who grew up in Toronto, Canada and he has never left the big city. He grew up playing a few sports (hockey, soccer and baseball) when he was younger. His favorite sport was hockey and he played goalie. He still likes to get out to the rinks to play some pick-up with his buddies.

 

Growing up in Toronto, Scott is a huge fan of all Toronto teams.

 

He watches the Maple Leafs and Raptors religiously. Scott also enjoys watching the Blue Jays, Argonauts and TFC.

 

His best sports memory was when the Raptors were crowned the 2019 NBA Champions. Unfortunately, he’s still waiting for the Maple Leafs to win a Stanley Cup during his lifetime.

 

Scott may be a diehard fan of Toronto sports teams, but he loves watching all sports. He’s a huge UFC fan (look for his UFC betting articles for most events) and he’ll watch just about anything, including tennis, golf, soccer and cricket.

 

Scott is a numbers guy and he likes digging deep into the statistics when handicapping games. He also likes to identify value bets in markets most bettors overlook, including player/team props.

 

When he’s not handicapping and watching sports, he enjoys golfing in the warmer months. He also loves burgers and poutine. Not only is that his favorite meal, but he has tried over 100 burgers in Toronto and he’s constantly looking for the best new burgers in the city.