CLV in betting refers to closing line value and is a very important concept to understand. Closing line value refers to the value of a bet relative to where the line on that bet closes.
If you can consistently beat the closing line, you can become a long-term sports betting winner.
Opening Line vs. Closing Line
When a game is offered to bettors, a sportsbook puts out a line that it believes is an accurate representation of the teams involved. That line doesn’t remain static though. It can change based on a number of factors.
If you take an NFL game as an example, you know that you can have a week or more until game time. For the most part, as soon as one week ends, the lines for the following week’s games are released. With so many days until the next games to be played, a lot can change. New information comes up that will affect the outcome of the game.
Factors include injuries, weather changes, even the assignment of a game’s officials. When oddsmakers review these changes, they may decide to alter the lines accordingly. Just before a game is about to begin, the line closes. This is the closing line and often it is different than the opening line.
Why CLV Is Important
Why CLV matters is best explained with an example. Let’s say you are a $100 bettor. You place five bets a day or 150 per month.
On average, you beat the closing moneyline by a single penny. You bet on a favorite at -134 and the line closed at -135 or you bet on the underdog at +121 and the line closed at +120. Either way, you beat the closing line and saved a penny.
Now, if you bet the favorite and lost you saved a dollar on your $100 bet. If you bet the underdog and won, you made an extra dollar. Say you won just half of your bets. At the end of the month, you will have an extra $75.
That’s almost a whole unit ($100) just by beating the closing line. That’s why CLV is important.
Beating CLV
Knowing the important of CLV is great, but knowing how to beat it is even more valuable. One of the easiest things a bettor can do is to simply have multiple sportsbook accounts. Bettors should shop for the best lines on all bets.
There are also tools bettors can invest in that will analyze lines and predict how likely they are to change. There are some tools that are free as well as those that require an investment. If you have the time, you can analyze the data yourself.
The bottom line is that beating the closing line consistently will lead to more wins and a fatter bankroll.
Learn what the Kelly Criterion is and what a unit is in betting.
