At some point in 2022, current UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is going to face Justin Gaethje in a title fight. If he survives, Oliveira will most likely get the opportunity to battle rising star Islam Makhachev.
Makhachev is the protégé of fomer lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov and should finally have a chance to fight for a belt in 2022. Whatever happens, it’s unlikely that the current champion – Oliveira – holds the lightweight belt at the end of the year.
UFC Lightweight Title Fight
At UFC 269, Oliveira beat Dustin Poirier by submission in the third round of UFC 269 defending his lightweight title. The champ’s next fight will be against the world’s No. 1 contender – Gaethje. That fight has not been given a date as of yet.
Interestingly, Oliveira, who is listed at +200 to be the champ at the end of 2022, has made mention of fighting former champion and now the No. 9 ranked lightweight Conor McGregor. It seems unlikely, but you never know.
The Contenders
Right behind Gaethje is No. 2 Poirier who is unlikely to get another shot at the title in 2022. That’s why he is listed at +1200 to be the champ at the end of the year.
A better bet is third-ranked Beneil Dariush, who will have a chance to make a name for himself and possibly earn a title fight with a win over No. 4 Islam Makhachev. Dariush is given +1400 odds to be the year-end champion.
The Best Bet
In the grand scheme of things, the best bet is probably on the 30-year-old Makhachev. As stated, a protégé of former champ Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has a record of 20-1. He has won his last ten fights in a row and will be favored to beat Dariush. That’s why Makhachev is the overall favorite at +175 to be the lightweight champ at the end of the year.
Sleepers
The lightweight division is extremely competitive, but the top three or four dominate. Dariush, if he can get past Makhachev, is a possibility. McGregor (+2000) is well past his prime but, if he gets a shot at Oliveira, anything could happen.
The only other real longshot to keep an eye on is Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s 29-13 overall and won his last fight. He will take on Rafael Fiziev (+7500) in February. If he can somehow manage to get a fight with one of the top three or four in the weight class, it’s possible he squeezes his way into a title fight by year’s end. Dos Anjos is also listed at +7500.
Odds to Be UFC Lightweight Champion at End of 2022
Islam Makhachev +175
Charles Oliveira +200
Justin Gaethje +225
Dustin Poirier +1200
Beneil Dariush +1400
Conor McGregor +2000
Nate Diaz +5000
Mateusz Gamrot +5000
Michael Chandler +5000
Rafael Dos Anjos +7500
Rafael Fiziev +7500
Tony Ferguson +10000
Damir Ismagulov +10000
Arman Tsarukyan +10000
Renato Moicano +15000
Joel Alvarez +15000
Grant Dawson +15000
Drew Dober +15000
David Teymur +15000
Bobby Green +15000
Thiago Moises +15000
Mark Madsen +15000
Joe Solecki +15000
Gregor Gillespie +15000
Dan Hooker +15000
Paddy Pimblett +25000
Diego Ferreira +25000
Brad Riddell +25000
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