New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions September 5th 2025

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Yankees Eager to Avenge Series Losses vs. East-Leading Blue Jays

The New York Yankees will look to close the gap in the AL East when they host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opener of a pivotal three-game series Friday at Yankee Stadium.

Toronto (81-59) leads the division, but New York (78-62) has cut the gap to three games after winning 16 of its last 22 contests, including a strong 5-2 road trip capped by an 8-4 win over Houston.

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The Yankees Can Win If…

Rookie Cam Schlittler continues his impressive stretch. The right-hander has given up just one run over his last three starts (18 2/3 innings) and has held opponents to two runs or fewer in six straight outings.

Offensively, the Yankees need contributions beyond Aaron Judge. In Thursday’s win, Trent Grisham blasted a three-run homer and Ryan McMahon went deep as part of a three-hit night. If New York’s lineup stays balanced, they’ll have a strong chance to hand Schlittler run support.

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Kevin Gausman delivers like he has in two recent starts vs. New York. While he was rocked for six runs in 2 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium back in April, Gausman shut the Yankees down in Toronto, allowing only three runs combined across 12 innings in two July victories.

The Jays’ bats are also heating up, with George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all going deep in Cincinnati. If Toronto carries that offensive surge into the Bronx, they’ll be tough to beat.

Key Betting Trends

CategoryYankeesBlue Jays
Record78-62 (2nd AL East)81-59 (1st AL East)
Last 10 Games7-36-4
Runs Per Game4.64.9
Team ERA3.81 (6th)3.94 (9th)
Home/Away Record42-27 (Home)37-34 (Road)

Prediction & Best Bet

The Yankees are red-hot, but Toronto has had their number this season, especially with Gausman on the mound. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest given Schlittler’s form and Gausman’s history of bouncing back.

Lean: Yankees +100
Projected Score: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3
Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-110)


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