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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions – January 14, 2026
Two of the West’s biggest stars go head-to-head in Dallas as the Denver Nuggets visit the Mavericks on Wednesday night at American Airlines Center. Tipoff is set for 8:40 PM ET in a game where the market can’t pick a clear favorite — both teams are priced around -110 on the moneyline, and the spread sits at just 1 point either way. The total is 224.5, which leans moderate in what could be a possession-heavy battle of halfcourt execution.
This matchup features MVP candidates Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic, both operating as offensive engines for their respective squads. But with playoff positioning on the line and contrasting team styles, the value likely lies in the detail — not just the star power.
NBA Lines Before They Move
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Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
Here are the current betting lines. Always confirm movement using the latest NBA odds, especially for tight spreads like this one.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | -110 | -1.0 (-108) | O 224.5 (-110) |
| Dallas Mavericks | -110 | +1.0 (-112) | U 224.5 (-110) |
Denver Nuggets Betting Form
Denver enters this game playing solid basketball, sitting near the top of the West at 27–12. They’ve leaned on the same formula that brought them a title: low pace, high execution, and elite halfcourt defense. Nikola Jokic continues to do it all — 25.8 PPG, 11.9 RPG, and 9.6 APG — and makes every player around him better.
The Nuggets play slow — bottom five in tempo — and limit mistakes. They rank top-3 in assist-to-turnover ratio and effective FG%, and they’re elite at protecting the paint. Jamal Murray is fully back and finding his rhythm, while Michael Porter Jr. continues to stretch defenses vertically with his three-point shooting.
Defensively, Denver is still a top-5 unit in adjusted rating, largely because of their discipline and rebounding. They don’t gamble, they don’t foul much, and they force teams into uncomfortable midrange attempts.
ATS-wise, the Nuggets are 5–2 in their last 7 road games and 6–4 overall in their last 10. They’ve also won four straight matchups against the Mavs, including two in Dallas.
For the latest roster info, monitor the Denver Nuggets injury report and explore the Nuggets team page for trends.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Form
The Mavericks are 24–15 and playing efficient, high-variance basketball. Luka Doncic continues to carry an enormous load, averaging 33.2 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.5 boards per game — but his usage rate is sky-high, and Dallas’s success often depends on role players hitting threes.
They play faster than Denver (14th in pace), but they still rely on the halfcourt. Offensively, they launch one of the highest volumes of threes in the league, often generated through Luka pick-and-rolls and swing passes. Kyrie Irving’s return gives them another isolation threat, though his injury status has been inconsistent.
Defensively, Dallas has been shaky. They rank in the bottom third in defensive rating, especially against teams with strong interior scoring. Their biggest weakness remains rebounding — they allow the 5th-most second-chance points in the NBA, and that’s a glaring issue against Denver’s frontcourt.
ATS-wise, Dallas is 4–6 over their last 10 games and just 8–9 at home ATS this season. They’ve struggled to close against elite teams, often falling into late-game lapses and defensive breakdowns.
Keep tabs on key players through the Dallas Mavericks injury report and see full stat profiles on the Mavericks team page.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Matchup Breakdown
These two teams know each other well, and their contrasting styles make for a tight handicap:
- Tempo Control: Denver will try to slow this game down and force Dallas into a grind. If they succeed, it’s a win for Under bettors and for Denver -1.
- Interior vs Perimeter: Denver dominates inside, while Dallas lives and dies by the three. If the Mavs go cold — especially late — they have no backup plan. Denver, meanwhile, can get a quality shot almost every time through Jokic.
- Bench Depth: Dallas’s bench has been inconsistent, especially on defense. Denver’s second unit is more limited offensively, but they hold leads — and more importantly, don’t lose games in the non-Jokic minutes.
- Foul and Free Throw Rate: Denver draws more fouls, takes more free throws, and sends opponents to the line less. That often decides close spreads like this one.
The Nuggets are also in a better rest spot — they had two days off before this one, while Dallas is on their second game in three nights.
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Nuggets vs Mavericks Predictions and Best Bets
This game is priced fairly tight, but Denver has more paths to win. They’ve had success against Dallas recently, their defense is far superior, and they’re better on the boards and in late-game situations. As long as Jokic is healthy — and with Dallas’s interior issues — the Nuggets have a small but meaningful edge.
Lean: Nuggets -1.0 (-108). It’s rare to get Denver at this price in a winnable matchup. They’ve covered four straight vs the Mavs and are simply more complete on both ends.
As for the total, lean Under 224.5 (-110). Denver’s slow pace and efficient defense often suppress scoring. Even if Luka puts up big numbers, it may not be enough to push this Over unless both teams shoot exceptionally well.
Also worth a look: Jokic Over 9.5 assists — he’s hit double-digit dimes in 6 of his last 7 games vs Dallas.
Best Bet: Nuggets -1.0 (-108).
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