Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions December 25th 2025

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Betting Preview

Christmas Day brings Cooper Flagg back into the spotlight as Dallas visits Golden State for a marquee holiday matchup. Flagg continues to validate his No. 1 overall status and enters averaging 19.2 points per game, with his production spiking since Dallas turned its season around. The Mavericks are 7-4 in their last 11 after a brutal start, and Flagg is averaging over 25 points during that stretch.

Golden State remains a Christmas fixture and welcomes Dallas on a two-game winning streak. The Warriors are still searching for consistency, but the return of Al Horford adds stability to a frontcourt that has struggled defensively. Steve Kerr’s group has leaned more on half-court execution and ball movement as it tries to limit turnovers and protect the paint.

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Line Movement and Odds

Golden State opened -5.5 and the line has trimmed to -4.5 as money came in on Dallas following its recent surge. The Mavericks sit at +4.5, drawing sharper interest with Flagg’s increased usage and efficiency.

The total opened at 237.5 and has nudged up to 239, driven by Dallas’ offensive improvement and Golden State’s pace at home. Moneyline pricing still favors the Warriors, but Dallas liability has grown steadily.

Track live changes on the NBA odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Dallas’ edge is shot creation. Flagg’s ability to score at all three levels forces defensive adjustments, and Anthony Davis continues to anchor the interior on both ends. When Dallas limits turnovers, its offensive rating jumps sharply, especially in transition.

Golden State’s success depends on ball movement and defensive discipline. The Warriors struggle when forced into isolation defense and will test Flagg with physical wing defenders. Horford’s return helps rim protection, but perimeter containment remains inconsistent.

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Injuries and Conditions

Dallas Mavericks

• Cooper Flagg, no injury designation
• Kyrie Irving, rest management, probable
• Daniel Gafford, ankle, questionable

See full Dallas Mavericks injury report.

Golden State Warriors

• Al Horford, back, probable
• Draymond Green, no injury designation
• Gary Payton II, hamstring, questionable

See full Golden State Warriors injury report.

This game is indoors. No weather impact.

Best Bets and Prediction

Dallas continues to outperform market expectations, while Golden State remains uneven despite recent wins. The Mavericks’ offensive ceiling gives them a strong chance to stay inside the number, even if Golden State controls stretches at home.

Projected Score: Warriors 120, Mavericks 117
Best Bet: Mavericks +4.5
Secondary Lean: Over 239

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