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Game Preview Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
The Houston Rockets head to the Chase Center to face the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, November 26, in a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s Western Conference playoff series. The game tips off at 10:00 PM ET and will be nationally televised on ESPN.
Houston enters the contest with an 11-4 record and among the most well-balanced teams in the NBA. They rank second in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating—despite missing Kevin Durant, who is out for personal reasons. The Rockets recently rolled over the Phoenix Suns 114-92, led by Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengün.
The Warriors, meanwhile, come in at 10-9 after a high-scoring 134-117 win against the Utah Jazz. They are dealing with a handful of injuries including Jonathan Kuminga, Al Horford, and Draymond Green. Still, Golden State continues to lean on their deep rotation and elite three-point shooting to stay competitive.
Both teams are chasing playoff positioning in the NBA Western Conference and are looking to make an early-season statement.
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Odds and Key Information
Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Spread: Golden State Warriors -2.0 (-108), Houston Rockets +2.0 (-113)
Moneyline: Warriors -125, Rockets +105
Over/Under: 224.5
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Houston Rockets Outlook
The Rockets continue to impress. Their 11-4 record is supported by top-tier metrics on both ends of the floor. They average 122.3 points per game (4th) and lead the league in rebounds per game (49.1). Their shooting efficiency is elite—ranking first in three-point percentage at 42.0%.
Amen Thompson has stepped into a lead scoring role with Durant out, putting up 28 points against Phoenix. Jabari Smith Jr. and Sengün continue to contribute in multiple areas, giving Houston one of the deepest young cores in the NBA.
Defensively, the Rockets allow just 111.1 points per game, good for 6th-best in the league. Their ability to limit second-chance points and force contested threes plays directly into Golden State’s strengths, making this a tactical matchup.
Looking to track Houston’s playoff odds? Visit the NBA Championship predictions blog.
Golden State Warriors Outlook
Golden State’s offense remains potent. They are first in the league in three-pointers made per game at 16.3 and shoot 54.7% in effective field goal percentage. Even with multiple starters sidelined, the Warriors dropped 134 points on Utah, driven by Stephen Curry’s 31 points and steady contributions from Jimmy Butler III.
The Warriors are 6-4 at home, benefiting from favorable splits at the Chase Center. They’ll look to replicate last postseason’s success against the Rockets and contain Houston’s high-powered attack without Durant in the lineup.
However, Golden State’s defense is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 115.0 points per game. Their pace and perimeter-oriented attack can be a double-edged sword if shots aren’t falling against Houston’s top-5 defense.
Explore more about Golden State’s futures in the NBA Pacific Division race.
Key Matchup Table
| Category | Houston Rockets | Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-4 | 10-9 |
| Points Per Game | 122.3 (4th) | 115.8 (13th) |
| Opponent PPG Allowed | 111.1 (6th) | 115.0 (16th) |
| 3PT % | 42.0% (1st) | 38.9% (6th) |
| Rebounds Per Game | 49.1 (1st) | 43.8 (14th) |
Houston holds the edge in shooting efficiency, rebounding, and defensive metrics. Golden State has a slight edge in offensive tempo and three-point volume.
Betting Trends
- Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
- Golden State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 home games
- The Under is 5-2 in the Rockets’ last 7 games as road underdogs
- The Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings vs Golden State
Find more trend breakdowns in the NBA picks section.
The Lean
With a +2.0 spread, Houston appears undervalued. The Rockets have better numbers on both ends of the court and just held Phoenix to under 100 points while scoring 114 themselves. Even without Durant, their roster depth and rebounding dominance are difficult to match.
Golden State’s defense is vulnerable against teams that can shoot from deep and crash the glass. Houston leads the NBA in both categories. This could set up a strong revenge angle for the Rockets, who were eliminated by the Warriors in the playoffs last season.
As for the total, the line is set at 224.5. Our model projects a final score of 120-115 in favor of Houston, totaling 235 points. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and pace, the Over may offer more value than expected.
Spread Pick: Houston Rockets +2.0
Total Pick: Over 224.5
Projected Final Score: Houston Rockets 120, Golden State Warriors 115
Looking for more betting leans? Visit our full NBA expert guide for projections, power rankings, and matchup edges.
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