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The Dallas Mavericks continue their grueling six-game road trip this Sunday with a stop at Gainbridge Fieldhouse to face the Indiana Pacers. Both teams have found themselves in the basement of their respective conferences this season, but for different reasons. Dallas enters with a 19-36 record and is currently mired in a miserable 10-game losing streak. Despite the slide, the Mavericks have remained competitive in flashes and are desperate to salvage something from this road swing before heading home. Head coach Jason Kidd is looking for a way to ignite a roster that has struggled to close out games late in the fourth quarter.
Indiana, led by former Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle, hasn’t fared much better. At 15-42, the Pacers are sitting 15th in the Eastern Conference and are coming off a disappointing double-digit loss to the Washington Wizards. This 5:00 PM tip-off features two squads that play at some of the fastest tempos in the league, yet both struggle with consistent shooting and defensive stops. Dallas opens as a narrow 2-point road favorite, a line that suggests the market still views them as the slightly more talented side despite their recent double-digit losing streak.
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Odds
The betting lines for this matchup are tight, reflecting the volatility of two teams struggling to find the win column. Bettors should monitor the latest NBA odds throughout the afternoon, as any late scratches could swing this spread significantly.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Dallas Mavericks | -125 | -2.0 (-108) | O 232 (-110) |
| Indiana Pacers | +104 | +2.0 (-115) | U 232 (-110) |
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Dallas Mavericks Betting Form
The Mavericks are a bit of a statistical enigma. They rank 2nd in the NBA in possessions per game, yet they haven’t been able to turn that volume into victories over the last three weeks. Their recent 122-111 loss to Minnesota highlighted their current issues: they can score in bunches, but they struggle to get the “stop” when the game is on the line. P.J. Washington and Marvin Bagley III have been bright spots in the frontcourt, with Bagley recently hauling in 13 rebounds. Naji Marshall has also shown he can carry the scoring load, having dropped 31 on the Suns earlier this month.
Defensively, Dallas actually does one thing exceptionally well: they defend the three-point line. They allow the lowest three-point percentage in the league at 33.9%. This is a vital tool against a Pacers team that often relies on perimeter volume to stay in games. If Dallas can maintain that perimeter discipline while Bagley controls the glass, they should be able to dictate the terms of this game. Before locking in a bet, it’s worth checking the Dallas Mavericks injury report and reviewing the latest Dallas Mavericks stats and results.
Indiana Pacers Betting Form
The Pacers under Rick Carlisle are committed to a fast-paced, development-heavy style of play. They rank 7th in possessions per game and lead the league in three-point defense, allowing a league-low 11.4 makes from deep per game. This defensive focus on the perimeter forces opponents to win in the mid-range or at the rim. In their loss to Washington, Jay Huff provided a massive spark off the bench with 22 points in just 15 minutes, showing that Indiana has some untapped depth in their frontcourt rotation.
Jarace Walker and Micah Potter are seeing increased minutes as the team looks toward the future, and while the results haven’t led to many wins lately, they have remained a feisty home underdog. Indiana tends to shoot much better at Gainbridge Fieldhouse than they do on the road, which is something to keep in mind for this 5:00 PM start. You can get more details on their current rotation by checking the Indiana Pacers injury report or looking over the Indiana Pacers schedule and stats to see how they have performed against Western Conference opponents.
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Matchup Breakdown
This is a matchup between two of the top seven teams in terms of pace. Expect plenty of shots and very little standing around. The real battle will be on the glass and in the paint. Dallas has a rebounding edge with Bagley, which should give them more second-chance opportunities—something they desperately need to snap this 10-game skid. Indiana’s defense is designed to take away the three, but they have been vulnerable to big men who can score inside and rebound.
- Dallas’ 2nd-ranked pace against Indiana’s 7th-ranked pace.
- The Mavericks’ league-best three-point percentage defense.
- Marvin Bagley III’s rebounding vs Indiana’s interior defense.
- The fatigue factor for Dallas playing the fifth game of a long road trip.
Situational betting is huge here. Dallas is at the tail end of a long road trip and has lost 10 straight. Normally, that’s a spot to fade a team, but the Pacers are also struggling significantly and have their own defensive holes. Perhaps the desperation of the Mavericks finally boils over into a motivated performance. For those looking for deeper strategies on how to bet these “basement” matchups, checking an NBA betting guide can provide some clarity on value versus public perception.
Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Predictions and Best Bets
I am laying the 2 points with the Mavericks. A 10-game losing streak has to end somewhere, and a matchup against a 15-win Pacers team is the perfect “get right” spot. Dallas still has the better individual talent in Marshall and Washington, and their ability to defend the three-point line should neutralize Indiana’s primary offensive weapon. Our model projects a 115-112 victory for the Mavs, which is just enough to cover this short spread.
For the total, I like the Under 232. While the pace of these two teams is very high, their shooting efficiency is not. Both teams rank poorly in field goal percentage, and both defenses are actually quite good at running shooters off the three-point line. This usually leads to a lot of mid-range jumpers and contested looks at the rim, which eats up clock and keeps the score lower than the raw possession data might suggest. I think we see a final total closer to 227 points.
The Mavericks have been close in several of their recent losses, and I think they finally find a way to close this one out against a Pacers team that lacks a true go-to scorer in crunch time.
Best Bet: Mavericks -2.0 (-108).
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NBA Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Finding winners in matchups between struggling teams requires an eye for detail that the general public often ignores. The experts at ScoresAndStats provide today’s NBA picks that focus on these subtle matchup advantages, like rebounding rates and pace-adjusted defensive metrics. Following a professional can help you stay away from “trap” games and find the real value on the board.
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