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The Dallas Mavericks travel to Crypto.com Arena this Thursday night for a 10:00 PM ET tip-off against the Los Angeles Lakers in a game that feels like a vital reset for both franchises. Los Angeles (32-21) enters this contest looking to wash away the memory of a historically bad defensive performance on Tuesday, while Dallas (19-34) is currently mired in an ugly eight-game losing streak. This is the final game for both squads before the All-Star break, and with both teams dealing with significant roster turnover and injury issues, it serves as a massive situational spot for bettors. The Lakers currently sit as 6.5-point home favorites with a total set at 232.5 on Amazon Prime Video and SportsNet LA.
For the Lakers, this game is all about reassembling their rotation after playing with a literal skeleton crew earlier this week. They were missing nearly their entire starting five in a blowout loss to the Spurs, but the return of several key veterans should provide a massive boost to a team that is 2-0 against the Mavericks this season. Dallas is just trying to find a win anywhere they can get it, having not tasted victory since late January. They are on their longest losing streak in nearly a decade, and the lack of offensive consistency has been the primary culprit during this downslide.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
The following lines reflect the current market at the time of writing, but with several players still working their way back into the rotation, you should always monitor the latest NBA odds before locking in your positions.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Dallas Mavericks | +210 | +6.5 (-110) | O 232.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -250 | -6.5 (-110) | U 232.5 (-110) |
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Dallas Mavericks Betting Form
The Mavericks are currently a difficult team to back for several reasons, but the lack of interior presence stands out the most. During their most recent 120-111 loss to Phoenix, they gave up 18 offensive rebounds and allowed the Suns to take 102 field goal attempts. That is a recipe for disaster for any team, let alone one that is shooting just 22.7 percent from three-point range. The offense has felt stagnant, and while Cooper Flagg showed flashes of greatness with 27 points against Phoenix, the news surrounding the Dallas Mavericks injury report has taken a turn for the worse with Flagg now ruled out for this contest due to a foot sprain.
Without their rookie sensation and with Kyrie Irving still sidelined, the Mavericks will have to rely heavily on Naji Marshall and former Laker Max Christie to carry the scoring load. Dallas has struggled significantly away from home, and their lack of bench depth has led to fourth-quarter collapses throughout this eight-game skid. You can find more detail on their specific road splits on the Dallas Mavericks stats and results page. I think the lack of a true rim protector like Dereck Lively II is going to be incredibly apparent in this specific matchup against a physical Lakers frontcourt.
Los Angeles Lakers Betting Form
The Lakers are coming off a game where they allowed 84 points in a single half, which head coach JJ Redick quite bluntly summarized by saying they suck at defense. However, that was a game where LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and Marcus Smart were all unavailable. The good news for Los Angeles is that the Los Angeles Lakers injury report is finally clearing up at the right time. LeBron James and Austin Reaves are both expected back in the lineup, and Marcus Smart has been cleared to play. This immediately fixes the playmaking and point-of-attack defense issues that plagued them on Tuesday.
The one major absence remains Luka Doncic, who will miss this game against his former team with a hamstring strain. Even without Doncic, the Lakers are the top-ranked team in the league in field goal percentage (49.9%), and they thrive when they can get into the paint and draw fouls. For a complete look at how they have performed as home favorites, check out the Los Angeles Lakers schedule and stats page. The Lakers have been a strong ATS team at home this year, and they clearly have the motivation to go into the break on a high note after the embarrassment of the Spurs game.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Matchup Breakdown
This game is going to be defined by the disparity in available talent and the battle on the boards. Dallas is giving up an average of 117.2 points per game, and their inability to secure defensive rebounds is going to be a massive problem against a Lakers team that ranks in the top five for second-chance points when healthy. If the Lakers can control the glass, they should be able to dictate a pace that tires out a shorthanded Mavericks rotation.
- Rebounding Woes: Dallas allows 47.1 rebounds per game, which is bottom-tier in the NBA. With Deandre Ayton upgraded to questionable and James back, the Lakers should dominate the paint.
- Three-Point Variance: Dallas has been terrible from deep lately, but Klay Thompson is still a threat. If the Lakers leave him open while focusing on Marshall or Christie, the Mavs could hang around.
- Defensive Intensity: Expect the Lakers to play with a much higher level of urgency on the defensive end. Redick’s public call-out usually results in a more disciplined effort the following game.
For anyone looking to brush up on situational betting before the break, our NBA betting guide is a great resource for understanding how to price these “skeleton crew” bounce-back spots.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Best Bets
I am laying the points with the Lakers here. While 6.5 is a decent number to cover, the Mavericks are just in too much of a tailspin to trust, especially with Cooper Flagg joined on the sidelines by their other key stars. The Lakers are getting back their identity with LeBron and Reaves returning to the floor. Dallas has been a poor road team all year and their confidence seems shot after eight straight losses. I think the Lakers use this as a “get right” game and win by double digits.
Regarding the total, I am actually leaning toward the Under 232.5. I know both teams can score, but the Mavericks’ offensive ceiling is significantly lowered without Flagg or Irving. Furthermore, both teams are playing their last game before a long vacation, and these pre-All-Star games often see a dip in efficiency in the second half as players start looking toward their flights. The Lakers’ defense should be much more stout with Smart and James back, likely keeping Dallas around the 105 to 110 mark. Perhaps the Lakers win this one 120-108.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 (-110).
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NBA Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Before you place your final bets of the first half, take a look at today’s NBA picks to see where the sharp money is moving. We offer a wide range of free NBA picks every single day, along with deep-dive analysis into player props and totals. You can compare our experts by visiting the handicapper leaderboard to see who is currently leading the league in ROI.
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