New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat April 11th 2025

At 8:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-816) will take on the New Orleans Pelicans (+558) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are 10th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 36-44, while the Pelicans are 14th in the West at 21-59. Miami is favored by 13 points and the over/under line is set at 215.

This game will be played at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans and can be seen on Gulf TV. The Pelicans have lost five straight games.

Heat vs. Pelicans Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans
• Where: New Orleans at Smoothie King Center
• Date: Friday, April 11th
• Betting Odds MIA -13, MIA -816 | NO +558 O/U 215

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The Heat Can Win If…

The Heat fell to 36-44 on the season after a 119-111 loss to the Bulls on Wednesday. Miami, favored by 2.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 230 points narrowly exceeded the over/under line of 227.5.

Miami started strong, leading 32-27 after the 1st quarter, but a 10-0 run by the Bulls shifted momentum. Chicago outscored Miami 31-20 in the 2nd quarter, and although the Heat tried to rally, they couldn’t close the gap in the 4th quarter, where both teams scored 27 points.

Tyler Herro led the Heat with 30 points and 4 assists in their 119-111 loss to the Bulls, shooting 50% from the field. Herro was particularly effective in the 4th quarter, scoring 11 points. Bam Adebayo added 18 points, with 7 coming in the 3rd quarter, while Davion Mitchell contributed 17 points and 8 assists, shooting 60% from the field.

Miami shot 47.8% overall, hitting 12 threes at a 36.4% clip. Herro made just 2 threes, shooting 28.6% from beyond the arc, while Adebayo also connected on 2 threes, hitting 66.7% of his attempts.

The Heat struggled defensively on Wednesday, giving up 119 points to the Bulls. They allowed 27 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters but gave up 31 in the 2nd and 34 in the 3rd. Chicago shot 51% from the field.

Miami allowed 14 threes at a 37% clip and sent the Bulls to the line 13 times, where they hit all their free throws. The Heat recorded 11 steals and 3 blocks in the game.

• Miami has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 113 points per game while allowing 105. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Heat have a straight up record of 5-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 4-5-1.
• Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-2-1 vs. the spread.

The Pelicans Can Win If…

New Orleans fell to 21-59 on the season after a 136-111 road loss to the Bucks on Thursday. The Pelicans entered the game as +16.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The total score of 247 points exceeded the over/under line of 222.5 by 24.5 points.

New Orleans started strong, leading 26-21 after the 1st quarter, but the Bucks took control with an 11-0 run, pushing the score from 52-50 to 63-50. Milwaukee outscored the Pelicans 41-28 in the 2nd quarter and 38-31 in the 3rd, and they sealed the win by outscoring New Orleans 36-26 in the 4th.

In their 136-111 loss to the Bucks, the Pelicans shot 42.7% from the field and made 15 threes, though they hit just 31.9% from beyond the arc. Lester Quinones led the team with 21 points, adding 6 assists and 5 rebounds, despite shooting 36.4% overall and 18.2% from three.

Jamal Cain and Keion Brooks each contributed 20 points, with Brooks hitting 4 threes at a 50% rate. Cain scored 13 of his points in the 4th quarter, while Quinones added 11 points in the 2nd quarter.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 1st quarter, the Pelicans struggled to contain the Bucks in the 2nd, giving up 41 points. They also allowed 38 points in the 3rd and 36 in the 4th, leading to a 136-111 loss. Milwaukee shot 54% from the field.

The Bucks hit 18 threes at a 40% clip. The Pelicans sent Milwaukee to the line 30 times, where they made 20 free throws. Defensively, New Orleans grabbed 38 rebounds, allowed 7 offensive boards, and recorded 8 steals.

• Although New Orleans has a straight up record of 1-9 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 112 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, New Orleans has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 0-5 straight up.
• In their last five games, the Pelicans have an over/under record of 0-5 and are 3-1-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Our bet is on the Heat for a win, and we project the score to be 127-73. Additionally, we expect them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to wager on the Heat with the spread at -13.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 215, and our model projects the Heat and Pelicans to reach a combined total of 200 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

NBA Picks & Predictions from The Best Expert Handicappers

Heat Eye Redemption and Play-In Boost vs. Shorthanded Pelicans

With just two games remaining in the regular season, the Miami Heat face a critical juncture in their playoff journey. Following a disappointing 119-111 loss to the Chicago Bulls, the Heat’s position in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament remains precarious. Now holding the 10th seed with a 36-44 record, they must win out — and get a little help — to climb the ladder.

Heat Miss Key Opportunity but Remain Focused

The loss to the Bulls stung. Not just for the scoreboard but because of the playoff implications. Had Miami secured a win, they could’ve jumped to the ninth spot. Instead, they’re still stuck in 10th, needing a perfect finish and back-to-back losses from either Chicago or the Atlanta Hawks to rise.

“This was a big game and we lost,” said forward Andrew Wiggins, who returned from a six-game absence. “But we’ve just got to stay with it, believe in ourselves.”

Wiggins Returns at a Crucial Time

Wiggins’ comeback could not be better timed. Although he’s played only 16 of Miami’s 31 games since his arrival in the Jimmy Butler trade, his presence is a welcome boost. He scored 14 points against Chicago and looked spry coming off a hamstring injury. More importantly, it marked the first game since March 27 where Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Wiggins shared the court — a potential trio that could be Miami’s playoff engine.

Herro Shines, Adebayo Solid, but Heat Need Cohesion

Tyler Herro led the charge with 30 points, showcasing his scoring versatility. Adebayo added 18, contributing solid minutes on both ends. However, despite the star power, Miami couldn’t close out the Bulls — an issue that has plagued them down the stretch.

After a six-game win streak, Miami has now lost three of their last four games. The sense of urgency is real. Coach Erik Spoelstra remains optimistic, stating: “Our focus will be on finishing out the season strong… we’re going to do whatever we need to do to seize that opportunity to get in the playoffs.”

Next Stop: New Orleans — and an Ideal Matchup

The Heat will now travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans, who are dealing with one of the most injury-depleted rosters in the NBA. The Pelicans (21-59) are missing eight of their top nine scorers, including CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, and Zion Williamson. The team dressed just eight players in their recent 136-111 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Heat Beat Pelicans in First Matchup

In their previous encounter on New Year’s Day, Miami never trailed in a 119-108 win over New Orleans. That win came against a healthier Pelicans squad. This time around, the circumstances favor the Heat even more.

Pelicans Embracing Youth Movement

Despite the losses piling up, head coach Willie Green is embracing the silver lining: player development.

“They make some mistakes, but there are a lot of positives,” Green said, praising the growth of young talents like Lester Quinones (21 points), Keion Brooks Jr. (20), and rookie Jamal Cain (20) — all notching career-highs against the Bucks.

Elfrid Payton, a seasoned veteran, added 15 assists, marking his fourth straight game with double-digit dimes.

Playoff Picture: What Miami Needs

To jump to the 8th or 9th seed, the Heat must:

• Win both games (vs. Pelicans and Wizards),
• AND have Chicago OR Atlanta lose both of their remaining games.

This makes Friday’s game in New Orleans a virtual must-win.

What’s at Stake for Miami?

Key Players to Watch

Conclusion: Must-Win Mode Activated

For the Miami Heat, the mission is clear: Win out, and hope for some luck elsewhere. With the Pelicans missing nearly all their stars, Friday’s game is a golden opportunity. But they’ll need to be focused, disciplined, and ready to capitalize — or risk watching the postseason from home.