The Milwaukee Bucks travel to the Smoothie King Center on Friday night for a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. Milwaukee enters the contest with a 23-30 record and holds the 11th spot in the Eastern Conference. They have managed to string together a two-game winning streak, most recently taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder in a convincing 110-93 victory. This is a critical spot for a Bucks team trying to stay relevant in the playoff hunt while missing their biggest star.
New Orleans finds itself in a tougher position, sitting 14th in the Western Conference with a 15-41 record. The Pelicans are looking to rebound after a recent setback against the Heat, and they are catching a Bucks team that is currently without its primary engine. With the Pelicans listed as 3.5-point favorites at home and the total set at 222.5, there are several interesting angles to consider for this Friday night slate. The game represents a chance for both squads to find some rare mid-season momentum.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans Odds
Bettors should always make it a habit to monitor the latest NBA odds as tipoff approaches. Line movement can be significant in games where key players are missing, and even a half-point shift can change the value proposition on the spread or total.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +139 | +3.5 (-110) | O 222.5 (-110) |
| New Orleans Pelicans | -165 | -3.5 (-111) | U 222.5 (-110) |
Milwaukee Bucks Betting Form
Milwaukee has shown some real grit lately. Winning two straight is never easy in this league, especially when you are doing it without Giannis Antetokounmpo. I was particularly impressed with Ousmane Dieng in their last outing; he put up 19 points and 11 rebounds, showing that the Bucks have more depth than the market sometimes gives them credit for. The Bucks are currently one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, ranking second in three-point percentage at 39.2%. You can dig into more Milwaukee Bucks stats and results to see how they have fared as road underdogs recently.
The challenge, of course, is the defensive end. While they are fourth in the league in blocked shots, they can be vulnerable when their perimeter rotations aren’t crisp. They rely heavily on their shooting to mask some of their defensive inconsistencies. It is also vital to keep an eye on the Milwaukee Bucks injury report before locking in a bet. Without Giannis to clear out space in the paint, the Bucks are forced to take more high-variance outside shots, which can make their scoring output a bit unpredictable from night to night.
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Form
The Pelicans have had a rough go of it lately, but they still possess a physical advantage that most teams struggle to match. They rank second in the NBA in two-point attempts, meaning they are constantly pressuring the rim. Zion Williamson is the center of everything they do offensively. I think his presence in this game is particularly interesting because of the contract incentives at play; he is motivated to perform, and a locked-in Zion is a nightmare for a Bucks frontcourt that is missing its best rim protector. Check out the New Orleans Pelicans schedule and stats for a better look at their home-court performance.
Home court has been one of the few places where New Orleans looks comfortable. They recently blew out the Kings by 26 points at the Smoothie King Center, shooting over 54% from the field in that contest. However, they allow a lot of points, often giving up 120 or more to teams that can space the floor. To see if any other contributors are joining their top scorers on the sideline, you should consult the New Orleans Pelicans injury report before tipoff. If they can’t limit Milwaukee’s open looks from deep, their interior scoring might not be enough to cover this number.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Breakdown
This game really comes down to whether Milwaukee’s outside shooting can overcome New Orleans’ interior dominance. The Pelicans are fifth in the league in field goal attempts because they are aggressive on the glass and hunt for second-chance points. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is an elite shooting team that ranks fifth in overall field goal percentage. Perhaps the most telling stat is that the Pelicans allow a high volume of three-pointers, which is exactly what the Bucks want to do. If you want to understand how these styles clash, our NBA betting guide explains why three-point variance is so important in modern handicapping.
- Milwaukee’s 2nd-ranked 3P% vs. New Orleans’ perimeter defense.
- Zion Williamson’s rim pressure against a Bucks team missing Giannis.
- The Pelicans’ high volume of 2PT attempts vs. Bucks’ 4th-ranked shot-blocking.
I also think the turnover battle will be huge here. The Bucks are third in the league in steals, and New Orleans has struggled at times with ball security during their losing stretches. If Milwaukee can get easy points in transition, they can easily hang with the Pelicans’ scoring pace. If you are new to tracking these specific metrics, a general sports betting strategy guide can help you identify which stats actually correlate to winning the spread versus just winning the game.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions and Best Bets
When I look at this line, I think the Bucks at +3.5 is a very live dog. Milwaukee is shooting the ball too well right now to be dismissed, even without their star player. They have shown over the last two games that they can move the ball effectively and find the open man. New Orleans has a higher ceiling if Zion is dominant, but their defense is just too leaky for me to trust them as a favorite of more than a possession. I expect a game that stays within one or two points until the final minute.
The total is the play that stands out the most to me. Both of these teams have defensive numbers that suggest a high-scoring environment. The Pelicans allow over 120 points per game, and the Bucks allow over 115. With Zion pressuring the rim and Milwaukee firing from the corners, I think we see a total that climbs well into the 230s. My model projects a total of 228, which gives us plenty of breathing room on the current line of 222.5.
I’m expecting a bit of a track meet in New Orleans. The Pelicans’ aggressive style at home usually forces opponents to speed up, and that should play right into the Bucks’ hands as they hunt for open threes.
Best Bet: Over 222.5 (-110).
NBA Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you want to find more edges on the NBA tonight, make sure to check out today’s NBA picks. Our experts spend hours analyzing rotation changes and travel schedules so you don’t have to. You can also visit the NBA previews hub for a full breakdown of the other games on this Friday slate.
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