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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Predictions – January 20, 2026
The Toronto Raptors head to Chase Center on Tuesday night to take on the Golden State Warriors in a cross-conference matchup with potential betting value on both sides. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Toronto enters at 18–27, still searching for consistency, while the Warriors sit at 22–23 — clinging to play-in position in the West and trying to build momentum at home after a rocky first half.
Golden State is listed as a 5.5-point favorite. The moneyline market implies solid confidence in the home side despite its volatility, and the spread reflects concerns around Toronto’s ability to score efficiently on the road. The total has not been posted with full juice yet, but pace and defensive profile should guide expectations. The Raptors have been inconsistent covering numbers in these spots, and the Warriors — while flawed — are showing signs of cohesion with Draymond Green back in the lineup.
There’s no major travel angle here, but rest could play a factor. The Raptors are finishing up a 4-game road swing out West. Golden State is in a more favorable position scheduling-wise, and that could be reflected in second-half performance.
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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Odds
These are the latest numbers available for this non-conference matchup. As always, check the latest NBA odds before placing bets, especially with injury reports and line movement still pending.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | +5.5 (-154) |
| Golden State Warriors | -5.5 (-109) |
Toronto Raptors Betting Form
The Raptors are in flux. The Pascal Siakam trade has left a noticeable vacuum, and while Scottie Barnes continues to flash long-term upside, the offense around him has been shaky. Dennis Schroder and RJ Barrett have struggled with efficiency, and spacing remains an issue. As a team, Toronto ranks in the bottom third in three-point rate and free-throw rate — two key indicators for ATS success on the road.
Defensively, Toronto can switch across multiple positions and force turnovers, but it hasn’t translated into sustained results. They’re allowing over 115 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games and haven’t been able to stop dribble penetration, particularly against backcourts that use off-ball movement to create chaos.
Offensively, it’s a lot of iso and midrange pull-ups. Barnes creates mismatches, but their lack of elite shooting limits how much they can stretch defenses. In fast-paced games, they’ve struggled to keep up. The Toronto Raptors stats and results show inconsistency in scoring, especially against quality defenses on the road.
Their depth has taken a hit post-trade, and minutes are inflated for their core group. That matters late in road trips. Keep an eye on the Toronto Raptors injury report for any short-handed surprises.
Golden State Warriors Betting Form
Golden State is hard to trust in large spreads, but the team dynamic has shifted since Draymond returned. Their defensive communication is better, they’re forcing more turnovers, and their pace has stabilized. Stephen Curry remains the engine, but the team’s ceiling depends on how consistently the supporting cast delivers.
The good news? Jonathan Kuminga has emerged as a more reliable scorer, and Klay Thompson is at least shooting confidently, even if the results have varied. They’re still giving up more points than they should at home, but that’s largely due to poor transition defense and rebounding lapses — both of which Toronto isn’t well-positioned to exploit.
Golden State ranks top-10 in pace but outside the top 15 in efficiency. That volatility makes their totals harder to peg. Still, at home, they’ve been markedly better ATS — especially when they can play with a lead and dictate tempo. The Golden State Warriors schedule and stats indicate they’re in a favorable rest spot, having played just once in the last three days.
Check the Golden State Warriors injury report closer to tip — especially for any limitations on Draymond’s minutes or potential rest for Curry.
Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Matchup Breakdown
The Warriors’ system thrives on ball and player movement. Toronto’s defenders can keep up for stretches, but over the course of 48 minutes, that constant off-ball pressure tends to wear down switching defenses. Toronto struggles defending shooters off screens — not ideal against a team that runs more off-ball action than nearly anyone.
From a pace and shot profile standpoint, Golden State wants to push tempo and shoot early-clock threes. Toronto doesn’t have the spacing to match shot-for-shot, and in transition, they’re more prone to turnovers than Golden State.
Golden State’s weakness this season has been defensive rebounding — but Toronto doesn’t crash the glass particularly well. That means fewer second-chance opportunities and a higher dependence on halfcourt execution for the Raptors.
Matchup notes:
- Warriors rank 4th in 3PA per game; Raptors rank bottom-5 in defending above-the-break threes.
- Toronto allows the 3rd-highest opponent assist rate — not ideal vs Golden State’s motion offense.
- Golden State has covered 4 of last 6 at home.
- Raptors are 1–4 ATS on current road trip.
Motivation also leans Warriors. They’re trying to claw back into the 6-seed conversation, while Toronto’s trajectory is more long-term developmental. That mindset gap matters when evaluating effort and execution late in games.
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Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Predictions and Best Bets
This number opened around Warriors -4.5 and has already moved to -5.5 — possibly off sharp action or early injury whispers. Even at 5.5, the matchup leans Golden State. They have the rest edge, the system edge, and more weapons in a close game. Toronto’s roster, post-Siakam, just hasn’t found reliable rhythm, and that’s showing up in their ATS performance.
The Raptors are capable of being scrappy. Barnes is a matchup problem, and if Barrett gets hot early, they can hang around. But their inability to create consistent, efficient offense makes them a fade in this spot.
Totals-wise, we don’t have a market number yet — but a projection in the 229–231 range would be standard. With the Raptors struggling to score in transition, and Golden State showing more defensive intensity lately, early lean would be toward the Under unless the total opens low.
Best Bet: Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-109)
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