Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Bellarmine Knights Picks and Predictions November 19th 2025

Game Preview Bellarmine @ Notre Dame

Notre Dame returns to Purcell Pavilion seeking to reestablish momentum after its first setback of the season, a 64–63 loss at Ohio State. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish led late but missed key shots in the final minutes, including a stretch in which they went ice-cold from the field. Christoph Tilly’s go-ahead finish with 13 seconds left capped a tough result in what had been one of Notre Dame’s grittiest efforts of the season.

Markus Burton, Notre Dame’s primary offensive engine and All-ACC guard, finished with 14 points, but his 3-for-14 shooting performance highlights ongoing shot-creation challenges that surface when the Irish struggle to space the floor. Freshman Jalen Haralson delivered 13 points in his second straight strong performance following his return from a concussion. Head coach Micah Shrewsberry expressed optimism about the team’s overall direction, noting their competitiveness on the road against a projected NCAA Tournament opponent.

Notre Dame now returns home with a 3–0 record in South Bend, each of those wins coming by an average margin of 24.7 points. Their offense has been significantly more efficient at home, and the team’s pace and spacing have improved against lesser-pressuring defenses. This matchup against Bellarmine provides another opportunity to refine offensive execution and shore up defensive possessions before ACC play intensifies.

The Bellarmine Knights enter at 1–3 and continue to adjust under first-year head coach Doug Davenport. After a dominant run in Division II that included national championship success, Bellarmine’s transition into Division I has been complicated by NIL challenges and heavy roster turnover. Still, the Knights played competitively in a 94–86 loss to Wofford, where Jack Karasinski and Purdue transfer Brian Waddell each scored 23 points. Their effort showcased Bellarmine’s ability to produce efficient scoring stretches despite a lack of depth.

Bellarmine’s statistical profile shows strong shooting metrics, including 48.7 percent from the field and 59.5 percent inside the arc. Their 76.8 percent free-throw efficiency adds stability in games where possessions narrow. Karasinski’s 21.3 points per game lead the team, while Waddell’s 14.5-point average gives Bellarmine a strong scoring duo. However, their defensive inconsistency and depth limitations have created difficulties in maintaining leads and controlling pace.

Understanding how these differing offensive styles interact is often easier through foundational betting tools like the spread guide or the broader analysis of alternate total points when evaluating potential scoring ranges.

Odds and Key Information

Live updates and opening lines can be tracked on the NCAAB odds and scores page. Notre Dame enters as a heavy favorite at -27.5, reflecting a significant talent advantage and strong home-court performance. The total sits near 150.5, suggesting expectations of moderate tempo and efficient scoring from both sides.

Tools such as the How Betting Odds Work guide and the moneyline explanation help clarify line expectations in games with lopsided spreads.

Notre Dame Outlook

Notre Dame’s offense benefits from spacing, strong ball movement, and improved shot selection when playing at home. Their 49.4 percent field goal rate and 41.2 percent shooting from deep highlight the team’s potential when rhythm is established. Burton remains the centerpiece of the offensive scheme, capable of creating shots through isolation or pick-and-roll scenarios. Haralson adds another dynamic scoring option, and Carson Towt’s interior finishing and rebounding provide much-needed stability.

Notre Dame’s defensive execution at home has been a strength, with strong rotations and physicality limiting opponents’ shot quality. Their success hinges on sustaining energy, controlling the defensive glass, and avoiding turnovers in transition.

Depth remains a developing factor, as Shrewsberry continues to integrate freshmen and establish reliable rotations. For bettors, understanding Notre Dame’s variability can be enhanced through insights from the Handicap in Betting overview or through real-time adjustments outlined in the Live Betting guide.

Injury Report

Notre Dame has no major injury concerns entering the matchup.

Bellarmine Outlook

Bellarmine’s ability to shoot efficiently gives them a potential path to staying competitive despite being heavily outmatched in size and athleticism. Karasinski’s scoring versatility and Waddell’s mid-range game provide shot creation that can challenge defensive rotations, while Tyler Doyle contributes complementary guard scoring.

However, Bellarmine’s defensive stability and lack of interior size present significant issues. Opponents have attacked the rim frequently, and Bellarmine’s foul rate has forced them into difficult late-clock situations. Against a Notre Dame team that thrives when generating inside-out play, controlling the paint becomes one of Bellarmine’s primary tasks.

Bettors assessing Bellarmine’s scoring potential and defensive risk profiles can benefit from foundational analyses like the Sports Betting for Beginners guide and the late-game variance perspective offered in the Winning Margin Meaning article.

Injury Report

Bellarmine reports no significant injuries.

Key Matchup Table

Key Factor	Edge
Shooting Efficiency	Notre Dame
Perimeter Scoring	Bellarmine
Rebounding	Notre Dame
Bench Depth	Notre Dame
Tempo Control	Bellarmine

Betting Trends

Notre Dame has opened the season 3–1 both straight up and against the spread, with dominant home performances. Their efficiency at Purcell Pavilion suggests a strong probability of controlling pace and defensive pressure. Notre Dame’s offensive spacing and balanced scoring allow them to generate runs that quickly create separation.

Bellarmine’s trend lines indicate scoring capability but significant defensive challenges. Their ability to remain competitive in losses stems from efficient shooting, but their inability to stop penetration and protect the rim has resulted in high opponent scoring totals. Bellarmine’s consistency at the free-throw line provides stability, but the pace of this matchup may push them out of their comfort zone.

Further trend evaluation can be strengthened with tools from the NBA Expert Betting Guide, seasonal models highlighted in the Futures Betting Pros and Cons article, and postseason context from the March Madness Bracket Betting guide.

Predictions

Projected Score: Notre Dame 85, Bellarmine 63
Spread Pick: Bellarmine +27.5
Total Lean: Under 150.5, expecting moderate pace and strong interior defense from Notre Dame.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Large spreads create unique handicapping challenges. Notre Dame’s depth, shooting efficiency, and home dominance make them a strong favorite, but Bellarmine’s efficient offense and free-throw consistency could provide windows for covering wide numbers. Understanding whether Notre Dame’s pace and shot margins justify the large spread requires deeper possession modeling.

The Handicappers Leaderboard provides expert analysis that applies tempo estimates, efficiency ratings, and matchup-specific adjustments. Broader season projections from the John Wooden Award Odds outlook and the College Basketball Championship Odds breakdown add additional long-term context.