Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Predictions September 26th 2025

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Betting Preview — Game 3, WNBA Semifinals

The Phoenix Mercury return home Friday night with momentum after an improbable comeback in Game 2 of the semifinals. Phoenix erased a 20-point deficit and forced overtime on Sami Whitcomb’s clutch three, then outscored the Minnesota Lynx 6–0 to seal an 89–83 win. The best-of-five series is tied 1–1, with Game 3 and Game 4 in Phoenix.

Coach Nate Tibbetts kept his team composed, saying, “We needed to get one there (Minneapolis). We did our job.” His Mercury now look to continue their postseason tradition of stealing home court.

Minnesota, led by MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier and veteran guard Courtney Williams, knows what it takes to rebound. Coach Cheryl Reeve said, “Now we have to beat a really good team at their place. That’s a tall order. We’ll do all we can to do it.”

Line Movement and Odds

• Moneyline: Mercury -132, Lynx +110
• Spread: Mercury -2.5 (-108), Lynx +2.5 (-112)
• Total: Over/Under 163.5 (-110)

Oddsmakers opened with Phoenix as a slight home favorite. Bettors have leaned toward the Mercury after their shooting turnaround in Game 2. The total has stayed steady around 163.5, with action split. Sharper plays have leaned toward the over, anticipating more pace and perimeter shooting.

“This is what it’s all about. You play the whole season for the playoffs and moments like these.” — Alyssa Thomas

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Matchup Breakdown

Phoenix Outlook
The Mercury’s resilience defines this postseason run. Alyssa Thomas continues to dictate tempo, averaging 18.5 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds in the series. Phoenix leaned small in Game 2, spreading Minnesota out and hitting 13 of 32 threes after going ice cold in Game 1. Satou Sabally fueled the comeback with 24 points and nine boards, while Thomas’ orchestration kept Minnesota scrambling. If the Mercury maintain spacing and shot-making, they can seize control of the series.

Minnesota Outlook
The Lynx’s core has been in these battles before. Courtney Williams has 43 points and 16 assists through two games, while Collier adds 42 points and 15 rebounds. They dominated the fourth quarter of Game 1 and nearly closed out Game 2 until Whitcomb’s dagger three forced OT. Minnesota must tighten perimeter defense and avoid extended scoring droughts. Their pedigree and physicality make them dangerous, even on the road.

Key Battle
Three-point efficiency versus interior control. If Phoenix hits threes at even a league-average clip, their spacing creates mismatches. Minnesota must force tougher looks and keep Collier active inside to control tempo. Conversely, Williams’ ability to penetrate and kick could tilt this toward the Lynx. The first quarter should reveal whether Phoenix’s shooting carries over or Minnesota re-establishes paint dominance.

Injuries and Conditions

Phoenix Mercury	Minnesota Lynx
• No new major injuries	• No significant injuries
• Alyssa Thomas leading offense	• Napheesa Collier healthy, MVP runner-up
• Satou Sabally hot from deep in Game 2	• Courtney Williams producing at both ends

Weather: Indoor at Footprint Center, no conditions impact.

Best Bets and Prediction

Phoenix’s home-court edge and shooting momentum make them the rightful favorite. Minnesota’s championship pedigree keeps them in any game, but if the Mercury continue to space the floor and convert from three, they have the upper hand.

• Pick: Mercury -132 ML
• Projected Score: Mercury 86, Lynx 82
• Reasoning: Thomas’ orchestration and Sabally’s shooting tilt the edge toward Phoenix.
• Lean: Over 163.5 — pace and shot volume point to a high-scoring Game 3.
• Market Split: ~58% tickets Mercury, ~52% money Lynx (sharper lean toward Minnesota).

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Category	Detail
Best Bet	Mercury ML -132
Confidence	★★★★☆
Projected Score	Mercury 86, Lynx 82
Total Lean	Over 163.5
Market Split	58% tickets Mercury, 52% money Lynx

Handicappers and Picks

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Daily breakdowns are always available in our WNBA Picks section, covering sides, totals, and props. And if you want to refine your betting strategy, the Bettors Handbook offers insights on managing risk, adjusting to playoff line movement, and betting totals with pace metrics.

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