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Game Preview Missouri Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners enter Week 13 positioned at No. 8 nationally and within reach of a College Football Playoff berth. With two games remaining, their margin for error is nonexistent. Their opponent, the Missouri Tigers, brings one of the nation’s most productive rushing offenses into Norman, creating a stylistic contrast that will determine Saturday’s outcome.
Oklahoma has survived consecutive one-score wins over Tennessee and Alabama, driven by defensive pressure and situational execution. Their resume includes battles against top-tier passing offenses, but Missouri presents a different test: a ground attack ranked inside the national top ten. The Tigers average 241.7 rushing yards per game and feature Ahmad Hardy, the national rushing leader with 1,346 yards and 15 touchdowns.
The Sooners counter with the nation’s No. 4 run defense, allowing just 82.2 yards per game. Oklahoma’s defensive alignment under Brent Venables emphasizes gap integrity, blitz sequencing, and tackling volume. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz highlighted Oklahoma’s ability to eliminate running lanes and force third-and-long situations, noting how aggressive fronts shift leverage.
As bettors approach this matchup, tools such as NCAAF odds, NCAAF picks, and the full NCAAF teams directory provide additional context. Handicappers can also reference analytical concepts such as what does 1×2 mean in betting or how betting odds work to evaluate value positions.
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Odds and Key Information
Missouri Moneyline: +244
Oklahoma Moneyline: -304
Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 / Missouri +7.5
Total: 42.5
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Kickoff: Saturday, November 22, 12:00 p.m. ET
Broadcast: ABC
Comparative insights such as alternate total points and teaser bets help bettors identify secondary angles for this matchup.
Missouri Outlook
The Tigers enter at 7-3 after a 49-27 win over Mississippi State that snapped a two-game slide. Their offensive identity is clear: control the game with power rushing and misdirection to generate play-action leverage. Ahmad Hardy anchors the backfield, pacing the nation in rushing yards while driving Missouri’s ranking of sixth nationally in team rushing production.
Missouri’s defense complements the ground attack with high-pressure outputs, posting 30 sacks and seven interceptions. Their ability to force third-and-long situations supports their offensive philosophy by limiting possessions and allowing their run game to dictate rhythm. Bettors analyzing matchup volatility may find value in guides such as props betting and winning margin meaning.
Quarterback uncertainty remains a variable. Beau Pribula, who suffered a dislocated ankle against Vanderbilt, has missed two games. He participated in warmups last week but did not play. Matt Zollers is expected to start again, providing game-manager consistency but less mobility.
Missouri Injury Report
Beau Pribula (QB) – Questionable
Sam Horn (QB) – Out
Blake Craig (K) – Out
Langden Kitchen (DE) – Questionable
Oklahoma Outlook
The Sooners improved to 8-2 with a narrow 23-21 win over Alabama. Oklahoma generated fewer first downs and yards but capitalized on three Alabama fumbles. Their defensive pressure continues to define their success, ranking first nationally in sacks and seventh in interceptions.
Venables has rebuilt Oklahoma’s defensive identity, focusing on run fits, post-snap disguise, and pursuit angles. No opponent has exceeded 146 rushing yards against the Sooners this season. This discipline forms the central counter to Missouri’s rushing strength. For bettors evaluating pressure matchups, references such as handicap betting and live betting strategies provide supplemental analysis.
On offense, Oklahoma relies on controlled passing from John Mateer and chain-moving production from Isaiah Sategna III. Their kicking game remains a consistent asset, with Tate Sandell converting 21 field goals.
Oklahoma Injury Report
Troy Everett (OL) – Out
Jovantae Barnes (RB) – Questionable
Jacob Sexton (OL) – Questionable
Jake Taylor (OL) – Questionable
R Mason Thomas (DL) – Questionable
Gentry Williams (DB) – Questionable
Kendel Dolby (DB) – Questionable
Taylor Tatum (RB) – Questionable
Key Matchup Table
| Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Rushing Production | Missouri |
| Run Defense | Oklahoma |
| Quarterback Stability | Oklahoma |
| Defensive Pressure | Oklahoma |
| Explosive Play Potential | Missouri |
| Turnover Creation | Oklahoma |
Missouri relies on sustained drives, while Oklahoma leverages disruption and field position.
Betting Trends
Missouri is 23-0 straight up as a favorite in its last 23 games.
Missouri is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games.
Missouri is 8-1 ATS after a loss in its last nine.
Oklahoma is 19-4 straight up as a favorite in its last 23.
Oklahoma is 17-4 straight up in its last 21 home games.
Oklahoma is 5-0 straight up after a loss in its last five games.
Trend analysis can be supplemented with resources such as hedge betting, sports betting for beginners, and parlay construction.
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Predictions
Oklahoma -7.5 positions the Sooners as a home favorite with clear defensive advantages. Missouri’s rushing ceiling remains dangerous, but Oklahoma’s consistency in run-stopping situations supports the projection of a controlled game script.
Missouri’s ATS strength as an underdog is notable, yet Oklahoma’s home form and defensive leverage align with a narrow but controlled victory.
For totals bettors, the 42.5 line sits close to expected game pace. Missouri’s recent scoring output underscores over potential, while Oklahoma’s defense suggests restraint. The model leans slightly over due to Missouri’s explosive rushing capability and Oklahoma’s opportunistic scoring.
Projected Score: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 20
Spread Pick: Missouri +7.5
Total Lean: Over 42.5
Why You Need Expert Picks
Late-season matchups require stable modeling, injury interpretation, and market awareness. Bettors can elevate their approach through verified analysts on the Handicappers Leaderboard. Supporting tools such as sports betting strategies, how betting odds work, and the broader NFL expert betting guide offer deeper insight into probability structures and long-term value.
