Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions November 27th 2025

Game Preview: Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys

The Thanksgiving spotlight shifts to AT&T Stadium as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup featuring two teams fighting for positioning in a crowded playoff landscape. This NFC–AFC crossover carries urgency, with Kansas City entering at 6-5 and Dallas at 5-5-1. The early line opened with the Chiefs favored at -3.5 and a total of 52.5 points. With the retractable roof expected to be closed, conditions will be stable and fast indoors, a common feature on the NFL Week 13 slate highlighted at ScoresAndStats.

Patrick Mahomes returns to Dallas for the first time since his Texas Tech days, and Dak Prescott leads a Cowboys team coming off a dramatic rally against Philadelphia. Both clubs are dealing with short-week preparation, injuries across key positions, and postseason pressure that amplifies the stakes of Thursday’s national window.

Odds and Key Information

Kansas City sits -3.5 on most boards, driven by sharper action favoring their efficiency metrics and the return of Isiah Pacheco. The moneyline reflects market confidence, listing the Chiefs near -178 with Dallas at +150. The total at 52.5 has drawn early over interest due to both teams ranking top-three in net passing yards, but unders have quietly trended with Kansas City in recent weeks.

Key staff from both teams cited urgency on a short week. Kansas City’s coaching staff emphasized energy management and mixing pressures to disrupt Prescott. Dallas expressed concern with the volume of weapons Kansas City deploys, especially with the Chiefs regaining multiple offensive pieces. Market movement suggests bettors are weighing Dallas’ home strength against Kansas City’s road inconsistency.

Kansas City Chiefs Outlook

Kansas City enters at 6-5, a rare record in the Mahomes era, but their underlying metrics show competitive balance. Mahomes is again atop the league in passing yards and touchdowns, providing stability to an offense that has rotated personnel frequently. Travis Kelce remains the focal point, and his 91-yard performance against Denver demonstrated his role as the primary chain-mover.

Kansas City ranks second in third-down conversion rate, excelling in sustained drives and situational execution. Their red-zone consistency has dipped, but the return of Pacheco could restore balance. With Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy all practicing fully, the wide receiver rotation appears healthier than it has been in weeks.

Defensively, Kansas City ranks fourth in opponent scoring, a product of strong interior pressure and matchup versatility under Steve Spagnuolo. Chris Jones has shown renewed impact during practice stretches and remains a central figure in Kansas City’s pass-rush packages. This defense will focus on moving Prescott off-platform and limiting explosive yards after the catch, especially with Dallas’ perimeter weapons.

The injury picture remains fluid, highlighted on their full report page: Chiefs Injury Report

Dallas Cowboys Outlook

Dallas enters this matchup with one of the league’s best offensive ceilings. They rank first in total offense at 387.3 yards per game, and their passing game continues as a weekly strength. Prescott has 2,941 passing yards, two shy of Mahomes, and his performance against Philadelphia—354 yards and two touchdowns—showed his command when Dallas pushes tempo.

Javonte Williams drives the ground game with 896 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, controlling early-down flow. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb provide top-level receiving threats, with Pickens surpassing 1,000 yards and Lamb rediscovering consistency following a drop-heavy outing. Dallas’ offensive structure is at its best when explosive plays supplement sustained drives.

Defensively, the Cowboys remain dangerous due to their pass-rush rotation. Though injuries have stretched depth, their 52 sacks last season ranked third in the NFL, and their pressure formula still leans heavily on stunts and interior-spacing concepts. However, Dallas has been vulnerable on the back end due to secondary injuries, an area Kansas City may target.

Their updated status can be monitored through the Cowboys’ injury report: Cowboys Injury Report

Key Matchup Table

Category	Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys
Record	6-5	5-5-1
Points Per Game	22.7 (est.)	29.1 (4th)
Opponent PPG Allowed	4th in opponent scoring	Middle tier
Total Offense	2nd in net passing yards	1st in total offense (387.3 YPG)
Passing Production	Mahomes 2,977 yards	Prescott 2,941 yards
Rush Game	Hunt 457 yards; Pacheco returns	Williams 896 yards, 8 TDs
Pass Rush	Chris Jones carries interior pressure	52 sacks last season (3rd)

Betting Trends

Kansas City has been reliable at home (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS), but this game takes place in Arlington, where the Chiefs have struggled on the road at 1-4 this season. Dallas has thrived as an underdog, going 4-1 ATS in that role during 2025. Their totals trends skew heavily to the over, driven by explosive play rates and defensive inconsistency.

The Chiefs have played to the under in 10 of their last 14 contests due to defensive strength and slower overall pace. Dallas games, particularly on the road, have leaned high with four straight overs. Bettors can examine additional matchup metrics and betting tools on the NFL odds page or explore broader coverage through the full NFL previews hub: NFL Previews

The Lean

Kansas City’s consistency on third downs and defensive scoring prevention gives them a slight analytical edge. Mahomes’ ability to extend plays horizontally stresses Dallas’ coverage structures, especially with secondary injuries. Dallas’ offensive potential keeps them in every game, but their trench uncertainties—especially at left tackle—could impact Prescott’s timing.

Projected Score: Kansas City Chiefs 28, Dallas Cowboys 24
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5
Total Lean: Under 52.5

For those tracking multiple NFL matchups this week, the main NFL section offers comparative market movement and updated Thanksgiving lines.
NFL Scores & Odds

Why You Need Expert Picks

Thanksgiving games attract inflated public handle, making sharp-side identification critical. The Handicappers Leaderboard at ScoresAndStats provides grading transparency, expert projections, and model-driven recommendations to help bettors detect value gaps before lines shift: Handicappers Leaderboard

Expert analysis isolates mismatches, personnel advantages, and situational tendencies not always reflected in raw stats. For additional decision-support tools, bettors can explore the NFL betting guide and other cross-sport insights that highlight matchup-driven value: Expert Betting Guide