Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Picks and Predictions May 18th 2025

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers May 18th 2025

Betting on today’s Panthers and Maple Leafs game? Catch the action at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, as the Maple Leafs hosts this showdown at 7:30 ET on TNT. The Panthers are the -1.5 goal favorites in this Atlantic division matchup against the Maple Leafs. The over/under for the game is set at 5 goals.

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Florida vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Panthers at Maple Leafs
• Where: Scotiabank Arena Toronto
• Date: Sunday, May 18th
• Betting Odds FLA -130 | TOR +110 O/U 5

The Panthers Can Win If…

Florida improved to 47-31-4 with a 4-2 win over the Stars. The Panthers covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, and the total of 6 goals fell short of the 6.5-goal line.

All four of Florida’s goals came from different players, with Sam Reinhart sealing the win with an empty-netter at the 19:00 mark in the third period.

Carolina’s offense tallied 4 goals on 25 shots in their 4-2 win over the Stars. A.J. Greer scored his first goal of the season, while Sam Reinhart added his 10th with an empty-netter. The Panthers’ other goals came from Evan Rodrigues, who scored his 3rd goal 5:15 into the first period, and Matthew Tkachuk, who netted his 3rd on a power play in the second period.

Carolina had 16 giveaways and recorded 6 assists. Sam Reinhart picked up his 11th assist of the season. Tomás Nosek earned his first assist on Greer’s goal, and Eetu Luostarinen added his 4th assist on Reinhart’s empty-netter.

Florida’s defense gave up two goals in their last game, both coming in the second period. However, they shut out Dallas in the first and third periods, helping secure a 4-2 win. Spencer Knight made 23 saves with a 92% save percentage, while the Panthers’ defense contributed 8 takeaways and 22 hits.

• Through their last three games, the Panthers have a record of 2-1. In addition, their puck line record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Florida has a record of 6-4. Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto dropped to 52-26-4 after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild. The Maple Leafs were underdogs on the puck line, with the total set at 6 goals, but the combined score of 3 fell short of that mark.

After the Wild scored first, William Nylander tied it up for Toronto with 19:08 gone in the first period. The game remained tied until Minnesota netted the winner 2:14 into overtime.

William Nylander found the net for the ninth time this season, scoring on a power play at 19:08 in the first period. Auston Matthews picked up his sixth assist, while Mitchell Marner added his 12th assist of the season.

Toronto took 28 shots on goal but struggled with 10 giveaways. After Nylander’s goal, the Leafs were held scoreless in the second and third periods, as well as in overtime.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs will aim to bounce back after allowing the game-winning goal 2:14 into overtime against the Wild. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, and the defense recorded 2 takeaways and 30 hits. The first goal they conceded came at 9:41 in the first period.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Maple Leafs have gone 1-2 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
• Across Toronto’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Their record against the puck line in this stretch is 7-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

If you’re looking for a moneyline pick, my choice is the Maple Leafs to take down the Panthers at home. With the moneyline currently at +110, I’m placing my bet on the Maple Leafs straight-up.

If you’re looking to get a bet down on this matchup, we foresee the Maple Leafs winning the underdog. However, if you’re not as confident in the Maple Leafs straight-up, we’d still recommend placing a bet on them to cover the puck line.

If you’re looking at the over/under line set at 5 goals, our prediction is that this game will exceed that mark, and we strongly advise placing a bet on the over.

Maple Leafs vs Panthers

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers in pivotal Game 7 on Sunday, May 18 at 8:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena. Early showers will give way to cloudy and breezy conditions, with a high near 61°F and a low around 45°F.

Game 7 History Looms Large

Toronto enters its seventh-deciding contest seeking its first Game 7 win since 2004, having lost its last six—all featuring core stars Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly. In contrast, Florida boasts a 3-1 all-time mark in Game 7s, including last season’s Stanley Cup–clinching victory at home.

Key Players to Watch

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner powered the Game 6 win, but they must continue winning puck battles against a veteran Panthers lineup. On Florida’s end, Sam Reinhart and Aaron Ekblad bring deep Game 7 experience, while Brad Marchand’s 13th career Game 7 appearance—and fourth against Toronto—adds a strategic edge.

Goaltending Matchup

Frederik Andersen is likely to patrol the crease for the Leafs, needing a flawless performance to dispel recent Game 7 woes. For the Panthers, anticipate Sergei Bobrovsky to start, leveraging his composure under pressure to withstand Toronto’s energized attack.

X-Factors and Strategy

Watch for special-teams execution—the power play and penalty kill could swing momentum in a one-goal game. Toronto’s Matthew Knies status remains uncertain; his availability could influence line combinations. Florida’s depth—18 players with Game 7 seasoning—may provide the consistency needed in critical moments.

Our NHL Picks Today

Given Florida’s superior Game 7 pedigree and depth in clutch situations, backing the Panthers on the money line is our top selection. For alternate value, consider the under on goals—this will be tense, tight-checking hockey where a single deflection decides the victor.