Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Picks and Predictions April 29th 2025

Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 5: Can Toronto Finally Close the Deal?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are heading into Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead over the Ottawa Senators—but let’s be honest, nobody in Toronto is breathing easy just yet. With the weight of past failures looming, the Leafs are trying to shake off a brutal stat: 12 losses in their last 13 series-clinching opportunities.

Tuesday night’s clash at Scotiabank Arena is about more than just advancing to the second round. It’s about proving they can finally finish. For Toronto fans who’ve lived through heartbreak after heartbreak, Game 5 feels like a moment of truth.

Want insights beyond this series? Dive into the Stanley Cup Odds for a full view of the playoff field.

Game 4 Recap: OT Loss Exposes Old Wounds

Toronto played a strong game in Ottawa—dominating puck possession, limiting shots, and rallying from two deficits. But it still wasn’t enough.

Jake Sanderson buried the game-winner 17:42 into overtime, giving the Senators a 4-3 win and a ticket back to Toronto. Anthony Stolarz, who didn’t see the shot due to a heavy screen, took his first loss in 12 starts.

“We played a hell of a game,” Stolarz said. “Just needed one more save.”

That loss stung—but what hurt more was the flashbacks. Leafs fans have seen this before: a dominant performance that somehow slips away.

Coach Berube: “We Played Hard. That’s It.”

Coach Craig Berube didn’t mince words. He defended his players and shut down the negative noise.

“I thought our team played extremely hard. We gave up four shots in two periods. That’s playoff hockey,” he said. “We’ll be ready.”

Berube’s poise might be exactly what this group needs. His message? Keep pushing. Don’t panic.

Need more angles on Toronto’s playoff hopes? Check out NHL Atlantic Division odds for broader context.

Matthews & Tavares: Rested and Ready

Star center Auston Matthews didn’t practice Monday, which raised a few eyebrows. But no worries—he was just resting after logging over 26 minutes on Saturday.

John Tavares, who briefly left Game 4 after a collision with Artem Zub, was back at practice. Coach Berube confirmed there’s no concern about his availability.

With both top-line stars good to go, the Leafs have all the firepower they need to finish the series.

Ottawa’s Young Core Refuses to Fold

For the Senators, this series has been a baptism by fire—and they’re starting to respond. Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk, and David Perron have all stepped up. That OT celebration? It wasn’t just a win; it was a statement.

“This is special,” said Sanderson. “But we’ve got to shift focus to Game 5 now.”

Ottawa may be young, but the moment isn’t too big for them. They’ve been physical, opportunistic, and they’re growing fast—just like the NHL Central Division powerhouses they’re hoping to emulate.

Series History Adds to the Pressure

The numbers don’t lie. Toronto has a playoff closeout problem, and everyone knows it.

If they want to advance, they’ll have to play clean, disciplined hockey and avoid another mental lapse like Game 4’s OT. The good news? They’re still in control. The bad news? One slip-up, and the doubts return tenfold.

This is the kind of emotional playoff drama you’d expect from an NHL Metropolitan Division rivalry.

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Keys for the Maple Leafs in Game 5

• Score first to set the tone
• Keep possession-heavy hockey flowing
• Use Matthews and Nylander to expose Ottawa’s defense
• Minimize turnovers in transition
• Stay composed if Ottawa tries to get under their skin

How the Senators Can Force a Game 6

• Stick to aggressive forechecking
• Capitalize on second-chance rebounds
• Let Sanderson create offense from the blue line
• Win faceoffs to control tempo
• Keep Toronto’s top line off the scoresheet

Stat Breakdown Heading Into Game 5

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FAQs

What’s the series score between the Maple Leafs and Senators?
Toronto leads the series 3-1 heading into Game 5.

When and where is Game 5?
Game 5 is Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

Why didn’t Auston Matthews practice?
He was held out for rest and is expected to play.

Who scored the OT winner in Game 4?
Jake Sanderson of the Senators scored 17:42 into overtime.

Can the Senators force a Game 6?
Yes. With momentum from Game 4 and a young, hungry roster, they’re capable of pulling off another upset.

Where can I get updated NHL betting insights?
Check out our full NHL Expert Betting Guide for stats, picks, and matchups.