UFC 303 Odds, Predictions and Full Card 

On Saturday, June 29, the UFC returns to PPV action with UFC 303 live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This snake-bitten card has seen a shuffling of the lineup over the last few weeks. However, we are still being treated to a fantastic main event fight as the UFC booked a rematch for the light heavyweight championship with Alex Pereira defending his title against former champ Jiri Prochazka.  

This featured attraction was scheduled after Conor McGregor pulled out of the originally booked PPV main event against Michael Chandler. McGregor suffered a broken toe during training. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the only bout affected by withdrawals as there were a handful of fights that had to be re-booked. UFC’s brass did a great job at scrambling to keep this PPV an exciting event. In total, there are 13 bouts currently scheduled for Saturday’s show.  

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC odds, share some tips for betting UFC fights, and make our UFC 303 predictions. 

UFC 303 Odds 

The following Bovada odds are for the UFC 303 Main Card only: 

UFC 303 Main Card Predictions 

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 10pm ET live on ESPN+ PPV. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog:  

Ian Garry (-135) vs. Michael Page (+115) 

Other than the main event, this is the one fight that I’m the most hyped to watch. The undefeated welterweight Ian Garry (14-0) battles the charismatic Michael “MVP” Page (22-2) in what could be a fight that vaults the winner into the title picture.  

MVP finally made his long-awaited jump from Bellator to the UFC earlier this year. The longtime star of Bellator defeated Kevin Holland in his octagon debut via decision. He’s 8-1 in his last nine pro fights with the one loss coming in May 2022, to Logan Storley for the interim belt. Some pundits felt that Page should’ve won that split decision fight. 

Garry has been an absolute wrecking ball every since joining the UFC in late 2021. He defeated Jordan Williams via 1^st round KO in his octagon debut and has been on a roll since then. Garry has won seven fights in a row with the promotion. His last bout came in February, when he beat Geoff Neal via split decision.  

Page has a five-inch reach advantage and can score points by fighting from the outside. Garry will want to close the distance and make this a dirty fight with a clinch or on the mat. MVP has the better counter-striking skills as well, so Garry’s eagerness to engage in a firefight could be his downfall. The undefeated Irishman needs to be patient or he will get caught rushing in.  

This bout could go either way. I like the Over 2.5 rounds (-230) or the fight to go the distance (NA) for this contest. However, since we’re picking winners here, let’s take MVP to score a big win via decision and put him one step closer to a title shot.  

UFC Bet: Michael Page (+115) 

Mayra Bueno Silva (-130) vs. Macy Chiasson (+110) 

In the second of two women’s fights scheduled for this card, Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1) takes on Macy Chiasson (9-3) in a bantamweight battle between two top ranked fighters. Silva enters this clash as the #3 ranked bantamweight, while Chiasson is #7 in the division.  

This is Silva’s first chance to fix the bad taste she left in our mouths after a lopsided decision loss to champion Raquel Pennington in January. The loss snapped a three-fight winning streak  

Chiasson started off 5-0 in her career but has gone 4-3 since then as she’s alternated between wins and losses over the last few years. Her last bout was in March and she defeated Pannie Kianzad via 1^st round submission.  

Although the oddsmakers have this as a close fight, I believe this is Silva’s to lose. She’s the better overall fighter in this matchup and is a level above Chiasson especially on the mat. It’s entirely possible that this bout goes the distance as both women have seen the scorecards on many occasions.  

With that said, I’m going to get aggressive with this fight and pick it to end inside the distance as Silva picks up the submission victory. Seven of her 10 pro wins have come via submission. Chiasson has one submission loss and it came to Pennington in late 2021. Silva should get back on track with a win and put herself into the title picture for a second time.  

UFC Bet: Mayra Bueno Silva (-130) 

Anthony Smith (+130) vs. Roman Dolidze (-150) 

This light heavyweight clash between Anthony Smith (38-19) and Roman Dolidze (12-3) was never supposed to happen. Originally, it was supposed to be Jamahal Hill taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. Unfortunately, Roundtree was bounced due to PEDs and replaced by Carlos Ulberg. Then Hill pulled out due to an injury and was replaced by Smith. 

And, if that weren’t enough musical chairs for this bout, Ulberg ended up pulling out due to injury and was replaced by Roman Dolidze on eight-days’ notice. To make things even more confusing is that the UFC dropped the bout down the pecking order as it’s no longer in the co-main event slot due to so many changes.  

I give Dolidze plenty of credit for stepping in on short notice, but he’s coming off two losses in a row. Although both were via decision, Dolidze took a beating in both contests as he absorbed far more strikes than his opponents.  

In March 2023, Dolidze was mauled by Marvin Vettori. Then in February 2024, his most recent bout, Nassourdine Imavov landed far more strikes than Dolidze. Keep in mind, these bouts were in the middleweight division. Dolidze dropped down from light heavyweight to a lower weight class and has gone 4-3 since the move. Prior to that, he was 2-0 as a light heavyweight.  

Smith is 2-3 in his last five bouts, but did pull off a huge upset victory in his last fight when he defeated Vitor Petrino via 1^st round submission in May 2024. Smith didn’t take any damage in that fight, which is why he’s able to return on such short notice.  

I can see paths to victory for both combatants. Smith could take advantage of a tired Dolidze and find the stoppage late in the fight. Or, Dolidze could outpoint “Lionheart” and pick up an impressive victory. I’ve gone back and forth on who to pick. With that said, I’m taking the UFC veteran to win this bout.  

Smith has faced tougher competition than Dolidze in this weight class. He looked 10 years younger in his most recent fight and I’m not sure Dolidze will have the endurance to pick up the win. Since he’s never been stopped in his career, I think Dolidze will survive the three-round battle. Take Smith to score the decision victory as he outpoints his opponent.  

UFC Bet: Anthony Smith (+130) 

Brian Ortega (+105) vs. Diego Lopes (-125) 

Brian Ortega (16-3) vs. Diego Lopes (24-6) is going to be an exciting featherweight contest as both men can put on a show.  

Ortega comes into this contest 2-3 in his last five bouts, which were the only three losses of his career. And, they came against elite talent in Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez. However, Ortega did get that Rodriguez loss back as he beat Yair in February via third round submission. Eight of his 16 pro wins have come via submission.  

Lopes made his UFC debut in May 2023, and lost via decision to Movsar Evloev. Since then, he’s won three straight fights. All three victories were via stoppage. His last bout came in April when he defeated Sodiq Yusuff via 1^st round TKO. It was also his third straight first round victory. That’s a big reason why handicappers have Lopes as the odds-on favorite for this matchup.  

I don’t agree with these odds. In fact, I think we’re getting tremendous value on Ortega considering he’s fought a far superior level of talent than Lopes has. Additionally, Lopes has twice as many losses with the majority of them coming against inferior talent than Ortega.  

Both men have strong ground games, so it’s hard to see either fighter making a big mistake and losing via submission. I think Ortega has the power advantage and he can certainly strike with the best in the division.  

Although he’s not on the same level as Holloway and Volkanovski, he did hold his own against both men. Lopes isn’t close to that level either. I think Ortega outworks Lopes to take the decision victory. Lopes’ last three defeats were all via decision.  This is my favorite upset of the night.  

UFC Bet: Brian Ortega (+105) 

Alex Pereira (-150) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+130) 

If you aren’t excited for this matchup, then you just don’t like the UFC. Alex Pereira (10-2) vs. Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1) is not only for the light heavyweight championship, but it’s a rematch from their title fight nine months ago. In their first encounter, Pereira won via 2^nd round TKO.  

I don’t think much has changed since that first fight. Prochazka returned to the octagon in April and scored a solid TKO victory over Aleksandar Rakic in the second round. With that said, I think Pereira wins this matchup at least nine out of 10 times. Prochazka is the ideal opponent for Pereira because he’s hittable and not as tactically sound as someone like Israel Adesanya.  

Instead, Prochazka is willing to exchange punches and that’s bad news when facing someone with the power of Pereira, as we saw in their first matchup. Keep in mind, Prochazka appeared to be winning the fight before the second-round stoppage. So, he does have the abilities to win this matchup. I just don’t see Prochazka having a sound gameplan to win on Saturday.  

Like last year, I’m sticking with Pereira to win this fight. He has the striking skills and the power to finish off his Prochazka on Saturday night. Take the champ to retain his title via TKO in the latter rounds. This fight will not go the distance (-450), but it will go past the O/U of 1.5 rounds (-175).  

UFC Bet: Alex Pereira (-150) 

UFC 303 Preliminary Card Predictions  

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Preliminary Card, which begins live at 8pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+. 

Payton Talbott (-1500) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+850) 

Payton Talbott (8-0) is the largest betting favorite for the entire UFC 303 event. He will take on Yanis Ghemmouri (12-2) in this bantamweight battle.  

Talbott is a rising star in the division and looks to be well on his way to crashing the rankings and eventually getting into the title hunt. He’s undefeated in his career and earned a UFC shot after a decision victory on DWCS in August 2023.  

Since then, Talbott has made two trips inside the octagon and he’s won both via stoppage. In November 2023, he beat Nick Aguirre via third round submission. And, in his most recent bout, he defeated Cameron Saaiman via 2^nd round TKO in March.  

On the back of a nine-fight winning streak, Ghemmouri made his UFC debut in September 2023. Unfortunately, he lost via 3^rd round TKO against William Gomis. It was just the second defeat in his career. However, both defeats have come via stoppage and I see him picking up a third one this weekend.  

Talbott is a star and this fight is an example of the UFC giving the 25-year-old winnable fights to build him up. Seven of his eight pro fights have ended via stoppage. Six of those seven stoppages have come via TKO/KO. I fully expect Talbott to finish this fight inside the distance.  

However, I would avoid the O/U of 1.5 rounds. This bout could end quickly or just before the third round has expired. Either way, there’s no value to Talbott’s moneyline, so wait until more UFC 303 prop bets become available.  

UFC Bet: Payton Talbott (-1500) 

Cub Swanson (+220) vs. Andre Fili (-260) 

The 40-year-old Cub Swanson (29-13) has been a longtime fixture with the UFC, but the ending of his fantastic career is on the horizon. In fact, some believe his featherweight bout this Saturday versus Andre Fili (23-11) will be the end. It’s entirely possible that Swanson retires this weekend along with Arlovski and Waterson. 

Swanson has gone 4-2 in his last six fights after dropping four in a row. He last competed in August 2023, and defeated Hakeem Dawodu via decision. The HOF fighter will certainly have the crowd support in this matchup. But, like every athlete’s career, father time gets the better of him or her and their skills start to decline.  

Fili is seven years younger and some pundits still considered to be in his prime. Although, I would argue against that assessment. Nevertheless, he’s alternated between wins and losses over the last few years and still has the striking skills to win this fight. Fili last fought in February and lost via 1^st round KO to Dan Ige. Swanson isn’t the striker that Ige is, so I don’t see Fili having as many issues.  

For this contest, I see these two warriors striking it out over three rounds. In the end, they both will look beaten and battered, but it will be Fili to get his hand raised as the judges declare him the winner via unanimous decision.  

UFC Bet: Andre Fili (-260) 

Joe Pyfer (-285) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+245) 

This middleweight contest features the fan-favorite Joe Pyfer (12-3) taking on the Canadian-fighter Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7).  

Pyfer’s first DWCS appearance didn’t end well after he sustained an elbow injury and lost via TKO in August 2020. He went back to the regional promotions before UFC came calling a second time with another DWCS appearance in July 2022. However, this time was different as Pyfer won via 2^nd round TKO. In fact, he’s been brutalizing opponents with six stoppages in his last seven victories.  

Pyfer won his first three trips inside the octagon, and five overall bouts in a row, before suffering a decision defeat to Jack Hermansson in February. Despite the loss, Pyfer still showed that he belongs in the rankings for the division. In fact, the loss could end up helping him in the long run.  

Barriault is a solid fighter and someone that Pyfer isn’t overlooking. The Canadian had won two bouts in a row before suffering a split decision defeat to Christ Curtis in January. That loss dropped Barriault to 5-6 with 1 NC in the UFC. Six of those 11 bouts have also gone the distance.  

If this ends up being a firefight, then Pyfer will run right over Barriault and pick up an early TKO/KO victory. Eight of his 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. 11 of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage.  

With that said, I think Barriault takes a cautious approach in this bout. Although he has the striking skills to end a fight, it would be playing right into one of Pyfer’s biggest strengths. Instead, I see a tactical strategy for Barriault in this matchup, which will almost certainly result in a fight that goes the full distance.  

Once at the scorecards, I expect Pyfer to win this bout via unanimous decision due to outworking and outstriking Barriault. The only uncertainty for this clash is who Pyfer calls out after his victory. I wish oddsmakers would handicap that.  

UFC Bet: Joe Pyfer (-285) 

Charles Jourdain (-120) vs. Jean Silva (+100) 

According to sports betting sites, the featherweight clash between Charles Jourdain (15-7-1) and Jean Silva (12-2) has the closest odds for the entire UFC 303 card.  

Silva comes into this matchup as the slight underdog despite having won nine fights in a row. He made his octagon debut in January and defeated Westin Wilson via 1^st round TKO. He earned that debut by defeating Kevin Vallejos via decision on DWCS in September 2023.  

For his career, 11 of his 12 victories have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. His two losses were both via decision. Not only does he have an impressive stoppage rate but he’s also never been stopped.  

Jourdain has been a featherweight mainstay since joining the UFC in 2019. Currently, he’s 6-6-1 inside the octagon. Jourdain had his two-fight winning streak snapped in January when he lost to Sean Woodson via split decision. It was a solid outing despite the defeat. Jourdain gave up a massive height and reach advantage. He’ll enter this weekend’s bout as the slightly bigger competitor.  

This contest is a tough one to predict as both men have the skills to pick up the victory. With two closely matched fighters, I like to play it safe and go with the Over 2.5 rounds (-155) and the fight to go the distance. Once with the judges, I like Jourdain to pick up the victory via decision.  

Jourdain has more experience going the distance with five out of his last seven bouts ending with the judges. Additionally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up a split decision. I side with the Canadian because he’s faced tougher competition and has more octagon experience than Silva. 

UFC Bet: Charles Jourdain (-120) 

UFC 303 Early Preliminary Card Predictions 

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Early Prelims portion of the card, which begins at 6pm ET live on ESPN+.  

Ricky Simon (-210) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+180) 

The UFC 303 card opens up with a bantamweight clash between Ricky Simon (20-5) and Vinicius Oliveira (20-3). Oliveira is on the rise having won nine of his last 10 bouts including earning a contract on DWCS, in September 2023, by defeating Victory Madrigal via first round knockout.  

He would then go on the make his octagon debut in March with a third-round knockout of Bernardo Sopai via flying knee. The highlight reel finish created more of a buzz for the Brazilian fighter.  

Simon has been a mainstay in the bantamweight division since April 2018. He jumped out to a fast start with three consecutive victories before dropping two to Urijah Faber and Rob Font.  

Simon would bounce back from those defeats with an intense battle against Ray Borg, which kicked off a five-fight winning streak. Unfortunately, that streak came to an end in April 2023, with a 5^th round TKO loss to Yadon Song. Simon would then drop his most recent bout, in January, to Mario Bautista via unanimous decision.  

It’s hard to tell whether or not Simon still has gas left in the tank to rise up the rankings or if he’s just a gatekeeper. At 31-years-old, I’m going to lean towards Simon having one last run in him. Oliveira has some hype coming into this weekend, but he hasn’t faced someone as talented as Simon. I like this fight to go the distance with Simon picking up a decision victory.  

UFC Bet: Ricky Simon (-210), Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) 

Rei Tsuruya (-600) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+425) 

This flyweight bout was originally booked for Cody Durden to take on Carlos Hernandez (9-3). However, Durden withdrew and Rei Tsuruya (9-0) agreed to step in, which is bad news for Hernandez.  

Tsuruya just steamrolled the competition to win the UFC season 2 flyweight tournament with three consecutive victories. He last fought in February, and defeated Niushiyue Ji via 1^st round TKO. It was the eight finish in his nine-bout professional career. Prior to this UFC series, Tsuruya was in Pancrase where he scored three victories by finish.  

Hernandez made an appearance on DWCS in October 2021, and picked up a contract with a split decision win over Daniel Barez. He scored another split decision victory in his February 2022 octagon debut. Unfortunately, he’s gone 1-2 since that debut.  

Those two losses came via stoppage to Allan Nascimento and Tatsuro Taira. The latter was his most recent contest where he was stopped via 2^nd round TKO in December 2023.  

Tsuruya is one of the biggest betting favorites for the UFC card and for good reason. He’s a talented prospect that’s a buzzsaw inside the cage. I fully expect Tsuruya to overwhelm and pick part Hernandez in this weekend’s clash.  

Look for Tsuruya to pick up a finish in this bout. Two of Hernandez’s three losses are via stoppage. Eight of Tsuruya’s nine pro wins have come via stoppage. Also take the Under 2.5 rounds (-190) as I don’t see this fight making it into the third frame.  

UFC Bet: Rei Tsuruya (-600) 

Andrei Arlovski (+220) vs. Martin Buday (-260) 

I was pleasantly surprised when I saw Andrei Arlovski (34-23) on this card. The 45-yeard-old former heavyweight champion will step inside the octagon for the 42^nd time in his illustrious career. Currently, he’s 31-10 in the UFC but enters this weekend’s heavyweight clash on a three-fight losing streak.  

This certainly isn’t the longest losing streak for Arlovski in the UFC or his career. However, it has dropped him from moving up in the rankings after a four-fight winning streak in 2021-22. Arlovski last competed in January and lost via decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Prior to that, his other two losses were via TKO and submission.  

Martin Buday (13-2) scored a contract with a 1^st round TKO win over Lorenzo Hood on DWCS in October 2021. He then tallied four straight wins in the octagon. Unfortunately, that run came to an end in December 2023, when he lost to Shamil Gaziev via 2^nd round TKO. The loss also snapped a 12-fight winning streak that spanned multiple promotions.  

There has been some speculation that Arlovski could be one of a few fighters to retire after UFC 303. It’s hard to imagine Arlovski not fighting in the UFC, but he’s getting up in age and no longer a contender for top fights or the title. With that said, he’s still competitive, but will more than likely incur a fourth straight defeat.  

Take Buday to win via decision. Arlovski tends to take his fights the distance. Nine of his last 13 bouts have gone to the judges. The Over 2.5 rounds (-200) is also the smart play here. I expect these two heavyweights to have a striking contest, but neither finding the TKO/KO before time expires.  

UFC Bet: Martin Buday (-260) 

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+145) vs. Gillian Robertson (-170) 

A women’s strawweight clash between two veterans will be in the top spot on the Early Prelims portion of UFC 303. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12) and Gillian Robertson (13-8) have both been with the UFC for a while now. Additionally, they both are highly capable of winning this fight despite what oddsmakers say.  

At one time, Waterson was a title contender and one of the best in her weight class. Unfortunately, time and talent has caught up to her. She’s 6-8 inside the octagon and enters this weekend’s fight with four straight losses. A fifth consecutive defeat could also spark rumors of retirement or a departure from the UFC.  

Waterson last fought in September 2023, and suffered a brutal TKO loss to Marina Rodriguez. Part of the delay between fights was to heal from that defeat. The 38-year-old is still a capable fighter, but she’s more of a gatekeeper for rising stars of the division.  

Robertson enters this fight having won three of her last four bouts. She’s on a roll and actually picked up the second TKO victory over her career when she defeated Polyana Viana in January via 2^nd round TKO. 

More than likely, this fight will play out with Robertson taking Waterson down to the mat where she will control the action. The only question is whether or not Robertson finds the submission in time or wins via decision.  

Nine of Waterson’s last 11 bouts have gone the distance. So, I think she will be able to survive the ground game of Robertson, but it will end with another decision loss. Six of Waterson’s 12 career losses are via decision including five of her last seven defeats. Take Robertson and the Over 2.5 rounds (-170). 

UFC Bet: Gillian Robertson (-170) 

Best UFC 303 Bets 

My favorite UFC 303 bets for the night are:  

• Mayra Bueno Silva (-130) 

• Brian Ortega (+105) 

• Alex Pereira (-150) 

I believe all three fighters have the experience to win their fights and the skills to finish off their opponents. I’m predicting both Silva and Pereira to win via stoppage. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ortega did the same.  

Top UFC 303 Upsets  

My top UFC 303 underdogs to place fliers on are: 

• Brian Ortega (+105) 

• Anthony Smith (+130) 

• Michael Page (+115) 

Of the three, I think Ortega has the best chance of pulling off the betting upset. I would lay more money on Ortega than the others. With that said, there’s some juicy returns on both Smith and Page to win their main card fights.  

Best UFC 303 Parlay Card 

My favorite UFC 303 parlay card includes the following fighters: 

• Mayra Bueno Silva (-130) 

• Gillian Robertson (-170) 

• Alex Pereira (-150) 

I like all three of these fighters to win in convincing fashion. If you place a $100 UFC bet on this parlay card, you will earn $385 in winnings and a total payout of $485.  

UFC 303 Full Card 

Here’s the latest fight card for UFC 303: