UFC On ABC 6: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, June 22, the UFC will be live from the Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for UFC on ABC 6: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov. Also referred to as UFC Saudi Arabia, this card features a middleweight main event of Robert Whittaker battling Ikram Aliskerov. As of this writing, there are 11 total fights.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC odds, share some tips for betting UFC fights, and make our UFC on ABC 6 predictions.

UFC on ABC 6 Odds

The following BetOnline odds are for the UFC on ABC 6 Main Card only:

Favorite	Underdog	Prediction
Johnny Walker (-125)	Volkan Oezdemir (+105)	Volkan Oezdemir (+105)
Muhammadjon Naimov (-110)	Felipe Lima (-110)	Muhammadjon Naimov (-110)
Kelvin Gastelum (-260)	Daniel Rodriguez (+220)	Kelvin Gastelum (-260)
Sergei Pavlovich (-200)	Alexander Volkov (+170)	Sergei Pavlovich (-200)
Robert Whittaker (-150)	Ikram Aliskerov (+130)	Robert Whittaker (-150)

UFC on ABC 6 Main Card Predictions

The following UFC on ABC 6 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 3 pm ET live on ABC. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog:  

Johnny Walker (-125) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (+105)

The opening bout for the UFC on ABC 6 main card is a light heavyweight clash between Johnny Walker (21-8-0) and Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0).

Walker enters this contest as the slight betting favorite and has gone 3-1 with 1 NC over his last five bouts. He last competed in January and was KO’d by Magomed Ankalaev. It was a rematch from their October 2023 bout, which ended via No Contest due to an illegal knee strike.

Oezdemir is 4-3 over his last seven fights and shows an inconsistency that’s equal to Walker’s career. He hasn’t competed since September 2023, when he beat Bogdan Guskov via first-round submission. 14 of his 19 victories have come via stoppage. However, four of his seven losses have come via stoppage as well.

This bout has all the makings of a stoppage. Oezdemir has knockout power, and Walker has the striking skills to smother and finish his opponents. Unfortunately, both men seem to forget these strengths at times. The inconsistency for both fighters has me thinking of small wagers only for this contest.

Oezdemir provides the better value in this matchup at +105 odds, which is more appealing to me than betting on the slightly favored Walker. Oezdemir will close the distance to get inside of Walker’s reach advantages and then do damage in the clinch or against the cage. Take Oezdemir to win via TKO (+240).

The ideal wager for this matchup, is on this contest ending inside the distance at -200 odds. The two men combine for 43 stoppages in their career.

Muhammadjon Naimov (-110) vs. Felipe Lima (-110)

This bout was one of many on the card that had to be fixed due fighters pulling out. In this bout, Melsik Baghdasaryan was needing to be replaced. So, the current Oktagon bantamweight champion, Felipe Lima (12-1), volunteered to step up on a week’s notice to replace Baghdasaryan.

Lima captured the title in July 2023, and has won 12 straight fights. His only loss came in his pro debut. Now that he’s with the UFC, Lima will relinquish the title. Because this bout is on short notice, it will be contested in the featherweight division.

Muhammadjon Naimov (11-2) has won six straight fights including going 3-0 inside the octagon. He debuted with the UFC one year ago and quickly picked up two victories via TKO. His last bout came in February where he defeated Erik Silva via first-round TKO due to a leg injury.

I give Lima all the credit in the world for stepping up on short notice. Unfortunately, I think he’s biting off more than he can chew. Naimov is the bigger fighter and a natural featherweight. Lima will have to go up in weight for this contest.

With that said, I do like this bout to go the full three rounds. Keep an eye out for when sportsbooks release odds for the prop: fight to go the distance. As of this writing, you can take the Over at 1.5 rounds (-200).

Lima has gone the distance in six of his 13 pro fights, including four of his last five contests. Naimov has gone the distance in five of his 13 pro bouts, including four of his last eight. As for the winner, I’m taking Naimov with the octagon experience and the size advantage.

Kelvin Gastelum (-260) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+220)

This welterweight clash features two UFC veterans, Kelvin Gastelum (18-9) and Daniel Rodriguez (17-4). Combined, these two men have 31 UFC fights.

Gastelum comes in as the heavy betting favorite and sporting a 12-9 record inside the octagon. He was once considered one of the top prospects in the UFC, but those days are long behind him now. Gastelum has dropped three of his last four fights and is no longer considered a title contender. In fact, he’s 2-6 in his last eight bouts.

Rodriguez is 7-3 inside the octagon and had a solid four-fight winning streak spanning 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately, he’s dropped his last two bouts via stoppage. In November 2022, Neil Magny picked up a third-round submission win. And, in Rodriguez’s last fight, Ian Garry scored a first-round TKO victory in May 2023.

Although neither man is in the title hunt or ranked, both fighters can still put on a good show. That’s exactly what we’ll get for this contest on Saturday.

I don’t see Rodriguez having the firepower to stop Gastelum this weekend. Conversely, “D-Rod” has only ever suffered one TKO/KO in his career, and that was in his last matchup against Garry. More than likely, we’re going the distance in this bout (-225).

13 of Gastelum’s 27 pro fights have gone the distance, including seven of his last nine bouts. When we go to the scorecards, I’m picking Gastelum to win this contest via unanimous decision (+110). His cardio and pace will score him enough points to win the fight and entertain the fans.

Sergei Pavlovich (-200) vs. Alexander Volkov (+170)

This heavyweight contest is the co-main event of the evening, and it features two highly-talented Russian fighters. Despite having a four-inch height advantage, Alexander Volkov (37-10) is actually giving up four inches in reach to Sergei Pavlovich (18-2).

For his career, Volkov is 11-4 in the UFC and has won three fights in a row since his 2022 loss to Tom Aspinall via first-round submission. During this winning streak, Volkov has defeated quality opponents in Tai Tuivasa, Alexander Romanov, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. And he won all three of those bouts via stoppage.

Pavlovich also lost to Aspinall, but his defeat came via first-round KO last November. The loss snapped a six-fight winning streak that included victories over talented fighters like Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa. Additionally, those six victories all came by way of TKO/KO.

With that said, I don’t see this bout going the distance (-350). Instead, we’re going to get a stoppage via TKO/KO. Combined, these two men have gone the distance in 17 of their 67 pro fights.

As for the winner, I really like Pavlovich in this matchup. His reach advantage will come into play, along with his tenacity, as he smothers Volkov. I don’t see “Drago” having the skills to effectively counter Pavlovich. Volkov will try to get the fight to the mat, where he has a better chance at surviving, but he will come up short. Take Pavlovich to win via TKO/KO (-160).

Robert Whittaker (-150) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (+130)  

This middleweight main event was originally scheduled for a highly anticipated showdown between Robert Whittaker (25-7) and Khazmat Chimaev (13-0). Unfortunately, Chimaev pulled out of the fight due to an illness. Ikram Aliskerov (15-1) jumped at the opportunity to fill in for the main event.

Ironically, Aliskerov’s only professional loss came in April 2019, when he suffered a first-round KO to Chimaev. Since then, he’s won seven straight contests. During that streak, Aliskerov has gone 3-0 inside the octagon with finishes over Mario Filipe de Sousa, Phil Hawes, and Warlley Alves.

Whittaker has been one of the best middleweights over the last decade. Not only is he an entertaining fighter, but he’s also one of the most skilled strikers in the UFC. But, don’t sleep on Aliskerov’s striking skills. Just because he’s a Dagestan with a heavy sambo background doesn’t mean he can’t strike. Six of his 15 wins have come via TKO/KO.

With that said, there are levels to this game when it comes to striking, and Whittaker is a level above Aliskerov in this department. Just look at how Whittaker picked apart Paulo Costa in his last fight.

Let’s play it safe with this main event fight. Take Whittaker to outwork and outstrike Aliskerov. I would avoid the prop bet of the fight going the distance because it’s hard to predict if the Russian can hang with Whittaker for the entire bout. Yet, I do like the Over 2.5 rounds (-165) as I see this bout going into the latter portions of the fight.

UFC on ABC 6 Preliminary Card Predictions

The following UFC on ABC 6 predictions are for the preliminary card, which begins at 12 pm ET live on ESPN and ESPN+:

Sharabutdin Magomedov (-230) vs.  Joilton Lutterbach (+195)

In the featured bout of the Preliminary Card, Sharabutdin Magomedov (12-0) puts his unbeaten record on the line against Joilton Lutterbach (38-9) in a middleweight contest.

Magomedov made his UFC debut last October when he defeated Bruno Silva via unanimous decision. It was a solid outing in his first trip inside the octagon and I expect more of the same during his fight this weekend.

Lutterbach is what I like to call an MMA journeyman who has competed in numerous promotions over his 47-fight career. With that said, most of his competition is inferior to Magomedov. In his two PFL fights, the closest level of competition to the UFC, Lutterbach went 0-2. Although he has a well-rounded skillset, Lutterbach seems to be in deep waters with this matchup.

Like many of the other Dagestani fighters on this card or in the UFC, Magomedov has the potential to be a top-notch fighter. Yet, there are some fans and pundits who feel that he can become the next great Dagestani star due to his striking skills.

I believe we’ll see those skills on display this weekend in a convincing outing. I’m drinking the Kool-Aid here and taking Magomedov to win via TKO/KO. I don’t see Lutterbach being able to survive for the full three-round affair.

Nasrat Haqparast (-245) vs. Jared Gordon (+210)     

Nasrat Haqparast (16-5) enters this lightweight clash as a large betting favorite over Jared Gordon (20-6). Haqparast is the larger fighter with a four-inch reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than his counterpart.

Haqparast is on a three-fight winning streak, and last competed in December 2023, where he beat Jamie Mullarkey via 1^st round TKO. For his career, Haqparast is 8-4 inside the octagon with losses to notable fighters like Dan Hooker and Drew Dober.

Jared Gordon is a live dog in this fight despite what the odds say. Gordon is 8-5 in the UFC, with his bout coming in November 2023, where he won via 1^st round TKO over Mark O. Madsen. His last defeat came in December 2022, when he lost via unanimous decision to Paddy Pimblett despite many pundits and fans thinking he won.

Gordon has the striking skills to hang with Haqparast in this matchup. Neither fighter has scary knockout power, but both could finish an opponent via TKO if the opportunity presents itself.

With that in mind, it’s better to wager on the fight going the distance (-180) or Over 2.5 rounds (-210) than taking Haqparast’s odds of -245. Although Gordon could pull off the upset, it’s still a risky wager. And there are a few other underdogs on this UFC card with better chances of winning.

Six of Gordon’s last eight bouts have gone the distance. Six of Haqparast’s last seven fights have gone the distance. As for the winner, take Haqparast to win via decision in a very close fight.

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-330) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+270)   

Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1-1) enters this welterweight clash as the biggest betting favorite of the night. He takes on the rugged Nicolas Dalby (23-4-1) in what should be a competitive matchup despite what UFC betting sites think.

Fakhretdinov has gone unbeaten in his last 21 fights, 20 of which have been victories. However, his last contest ended in a Draw against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in November 2023. Prior to that, Fakhretdinov had won his first three UFC bouts. He stands at 3-0-1 inside the octagon and is poised to extend that unbeaten streak this weekend.

This is Dalby’s second stint with the UFC. His first tenure lasted 13 months in 2015-16, as he went 1-2-1 in the octagon. He returned to the promotion in 2019 and has gone 6-1 with 1 NC. Dalby enters this weekend’s contest having won four straight bouts, with the victory coming in November 2023 via 2nd round TKO over Gabriel Bonfim.

Both men can grapple and slug it out. I see this bout going the full three rounds (-175) as they’re more evenly matched than what the UFC on ABC 6 odds indicate. Fakhretdinov does have the edge in their overall skill set, but his odds don’t offer any betting value.  

Three of Fakhretdinov’s last four bouts went the distance. 16 of Dalby’s 27 pro fights have gone the distance as well. I feel more comfortable with laying money on the fight going the full three rounds than taking the favorite’s bloated odds.

Kyung Ho Kang (+135) vs. Muin Gafurov (-155)

This bantamweight contest pits Kyung Ho Kang (19-10) against Muin Gafurov (18-6) in what should be a competitive matchup. With that said, I’m surprised that Gafurov is getting the betting favorite status for this fight.

Kang has a five-inch reach and two-inch height advantage over Gafurov. Additionally, Kang is 8-4 inside the octagon, with two of his last three fights being victories. Gafurov dropped both of his UFC fights with the most recent taking place in October 2023. He lost via first-round submission to Said Nurmagomedov.

This is one of the UFC on ABC 6 fights where I really like the underdog to come away with the victory. Kang’s striking is better than Gafurov’s striking, and I believe the underdog has the counter-striking skills to win any prolonged exchanges. Gafurov will try to get in close, but it’s not going to matter. I don’t see any paths to victory for “Tajik” in this matchup. But I do see it going the distance (-155).

Take Kang to win this contest by making a decision. He’ll outpoint Gafurov and cruise to a unanimous decision victory.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+250)

This light heavyweight clash features the undefeated Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (8-0) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (15-6). Ribeiro earned his chance with the UFC after a first round KO victory over Bruno Lopes on DWCS 2023: Week 5. Unfortunately, his February octagon debut was an absolute disaster. Ribeiro lost via first round KO. In fact, his last six bouts have all ended in the first round and he’s gone 3-3 over that stretch.

Gadzhiyasulov is unbeaten, but giving up nearly four inches in reach to Ribeiro. Fortunately for the undefeated Russian fighter, he’s a better kicker and grappler than his opponent.

I fully expect Ribeiro to come out aggressively and try to end this fight as quick as possible. Ultimately, that will be his undoing as Gadzhiyasulov should be able to get this fight to the mat if he doesn’t catch his opponent with some nasty leg kicks first. This fight is Gadzhiyasulov’s to lose.

There’s no value with Gadzhiyasulov’s odds, but take a look at the prop bet of the 30-year-old winning via TKO/KO at -135 odds. Also, Gadzhiyasulov winning in Round one has appeal with -150 odds.

Long Xiao (-115) vs. Chang Ho Lee (-105)

Long Xiao (26-7) vs. Chang Ho Lee (9-1-0) is scheduled to open the UFC on ABC 6 prelims and will be contested in the bantamweight division. Both men have similar builds, so there’s no height or reach advantages for either fighter.

Additionally, both fighters are making their official octagon debuts and each have gone 4-1 in their last five bouts. Keeping the similarities going, both men have competed on the UFC – Road to UFC Season 2. With that said, Long Xiao has more than three-times as many pro fights as Chang Ho Lee.

As for the winner, I am leaning towards Xiao as he appears to have a better takedown game and looks slightly stronger than his counterpart. Lee appears to have the speed advantage. This bout is as evenly matched as you can get. The safe play is to wager on the fight going the full three rounds over betting on either fighter. But since we’re making predictions for every fight, take Long Xiao to win via decision.

UFC on ABC 6 Parlay Card

My favorite parlay card for UFC on ABC 6 consists of the following fighters:

• Sharabutdin Magomedov (-230)
• Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310)
• Sergei Pavlovich (-200)

I think all three of these combatants are going to win this weekend. A $100 wager on this UFC parlay ticket can score you $185 in winnings and $285 in total payout. That’s a nice payday considering we’re taking three sizable odds-on favorites.

Best Bets For UFC on ABC 6

In addition to those three fighters on our parlay card above, I also really like the following bets for UFC on ABC 6:

• Gadzhiyasulov to win via TKO/KO (-135)
• Fakhretdinov vs. Dalby Goes The Distance (-175)
• Pavlovich to win via TKO/KO (-160)

You can add these bets to the parlay card above, make a second parlay ticket, or place a higher individual wager on each of these best bets for UFC on ABC 6.

UFC on ABC 6 Full Card

In total, there are 11 fights from Saudi Arabia. The following is the latest full card for UFC on ABC 6:

Favorite	Underdog	Prediction
Long Xiao (-115)	Chang Ho Lee (-105)	Long Xiao (-115)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310)	Brendson Ribeiro (+250)	Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310)
Muin Gafurov (-155)	Kyung Ho Kang (+135)	Kyung Ho Kang (+135)
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-330)	Nicolas Dalby (+270)	Rinat Fakhretdinov (-330)
Nasrat Haqparast (-245)	Jared Gordon (+210)	Nasrat Haqparast (-245)
Sharabutdin Magomedov (-230)	Joilton Lutterbach (+195)	Sharabutdin Magomedov (-230)
Johnny Walker (-125)	Volkan Oezdemir (+105)	Volkan Oezdemir (+105)
Muhammadjon Naimov (-110)	Felipe Lima (-110)	Muhammadjon Naimov (-110)
Kelvin Gastelum (-260)	Daniel Rodriguez (+220)	Kelvin Gastelum (-260)
Sergei Pavlovich (-200)	Alexander Volkov (+170)	Sergei Pavlovich (-200)
Robert Whittaker (-150)	Ikram Aliskerov (+130)	Robert Whittaker (-150)