Political betting means betting on the outcome of an election or another political event, priced in the same odds as a sports bet: who wins, by how much, and which party controls a chamber. The next US federal election is the midterm on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the next presidential election is on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
Both dates come from federal law, which sets election day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The last presidential election, on November 5, 2024, was won by Donald Trump with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226, per the National Archives.
The next elections
Federal law sets congressional elections on “the Tuesday next after the 1st Monday in November, in every even numbered year,” and presidential elections on the same Tuesday “in every fourth year.” That gives these dates:
| Election | Date | What is decided |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 midterm | November 3, 2026 | All 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate |
| 2028 presidential | November 7, 2028 | President and Vice President, all 435 House seats, one-third of the Senate |
USAGov states that all 435 House seats are up every midterm and presidential year, and that one-third of the Senate is elected every two years. Midterms fall halfway between presidential elections; the last were in November 2022.
How political odds work
Political odds read like any moneyline. Take a made-up two-candidate market: Candidate A at -150 and Candidate B at +130.
- Candidate A at -150: risk $150 to win $100. The price implies a 60.0% chance.
- Candidate B at +130: risk $100 to win $130. The price implies a 43.5% chance.
The two add up to 103.5%, not 100%. The extra 3.5 points are the book’s margin. A bet on either side is worth making only when you rate that side’s chance higher than the price implies. Our odds guide shows the conversion for any price.
Types of political bets
- Outright winner: who wins the presidency, a governorship or a seat.
- Party control: which party holds the House or the Senate after the election.
- Electoral votes: the winner’s electoral vote count, or a band of it. In 2024 the winner had 312 of 538, with 270 needed for a majority.
- State markets: which candidate or party carries a given state.
- Margin and props: popular vote margin, turnout, and events such as nominations.
Party control markets for 2026 settle on the whole map: all 435 House seats and the third of the Senate on the ballot on November 3, not a single race.
How an election bet is settled
An election market settles on an official result, and the official result can take weeks. The National Archives timeline for 2024 shows election day on November 5, 2024, and the electors appointed by December 11, 2024, before the Electoral College vote itself.
Read the house rules for any market before you bet. The question to ask is which result settles it: the projected winner on election night, the certified count, or the Electoral College vote. State markets need the same care in Maine and Nebraska, which award electoral votes by congressional district as well as statewide. In 2024 both split: Maine went 3 to Harris and 1 to Trump, and Nebraska 4 to Trump and 1 to Harris, per the National Archives.
Election markets are not offered at every sportsbook, and what a book may offer depends on where it is licensed, so check the rules in your state before you open an account. Prices on the same race can differ between books, and comparing them works the same way it does for a game. The markets also open long before the vote. A 2028 presidential price taken in 2026 is two years from its result, and it will move with every primary, debate and poll between now and November 7, 2028.
Reading the numbers
Polls and results are the evidence in a political market, the way box scores are in a game, and the last result is the starting point. In 2024, Trump’s 312 electoral votes came from winning states such as Texas (40) and Wisconsin (10), and Harris’s 226 included Virginia (13) and Washington (12), per the National Archives certificate totals.
For sports bets on the same principles, our betting guides cover the main sports markets, and our handicapper site reviews compare the paid pick services.