If you’re going to evaluate props, which of course often involve how a hitter is going to do against a certain pitcher and vice versa, you have to realize that sometimes you have to go against a player who may be at the top of the game, or going very “hot” at the time.

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In fact, those factors may actually give you the value you’re looking for. One of those props presents itself on Friday night, as we’re going up against the leading hitter (percentage-wise) in the major leagues.

Enjoy the win.

MLB Player Props Picks for August 20th

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction

MICHAEL BRANTLEY (Houston Astros) UNDER 0.5 HITS (+180)

Opponent: SEATTLE MARINERS (starter – Yusei Kikuchi)

Time: 8:10 PM ET

Seattle has been on a bit of a roll, winning seven of its last eight games, which has brought the Mariners within 5.5 games of the Astros and three games out of the second wild card spot.

Yusei Kikuchi, who was honored with a place in this year’s All-Star Game, has averaged 5.9 innings per start, so we ought to get some play out of him here.

The last loss he took was on July 28 at home, as he went five innings and gave up a homer to Yuli Gurriel. Michael Brantley did not play that day, and perhaps that’s very telling.

Even after going hitless in his last ten at bats, Brantley leads the major leagues with a .324 average. So we can, toa certain degree, understand the odds that have been put forward.

But he’s been like putty in the hands of Kikuchi, who has only struck him out once but has limited him to one base hit in 14 career at bats.

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Phillies vs. Padres Prediction

MANNY MACHADO (San Diego Padres) UNDER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (-125)

Opponent: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (starter – Matt Moore)

Time: 10:10 PM ET

We are the first to admit that Matt Moore has not gotten a whole lot of people out this season. A 6.07 ERA would attest to that, and there aren’t any fancy analytics that are going to dress that up to make it better.

But he was pristine in his last start. Moore, who has traveled from the big leagues to the COVID list to Triple A ball and back, went six innings without giving up a hit. Then he was taken out of the game by Phillies manager Joe Girardi, who didn’t want to tax his arm too much, because frankly,he’s needed right now in a thin rotation.

Manny Machado isn’t having his best season, but it’s solid enough – a .278 average, .349 on base and 21 homers – but he’s never been able to do very much against Moore, going 4-for-25 against him in his career.

Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction

TREA TURNER (Los Angeles Dodgers) OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (-105)

Opponent: NEW YORK METS (starter – Carlos Carrasco)

Time: 10:10 PM ET

Here is a confrontation between recent arrivals who could both have some impact on the playoff race, although to be honest, the Mets are fading, as they’ve fallen six games off the wild card pace.

And that is why it was supposed to be very important to have Carlos Carrasco around. The former American League wins leader came off the injured list in July and, after a couple of encouraging outings, has lost touch. Or been touched up (whichever expression you want to use).

The last two times he’s taken the mound he’s gotten nine men out and allowed ten men to cross the plate. So naturally the Mets are distressed.

Trea Turner is swinging a hot bat right now, hitting .500 (8-for-16) over his last four games. And we know how much speed he brings to the table. When he faced Carrasco five days ago, he went three for four with a double. All told, he’s four-for-five, and really, what’s stopping him here?

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White Sox vs. Rays Prediction

NELSON CRUZ (Tampa Bay Rays) OVER 0.5 HOME RUNS (+320)

Opponent: CHICAGO WHITE SOX (starter – Lucas Giolito)

Time: 7:10 PM ET

I’ve often wondered how Hall of Fame voters are going to treat a guy like Nelson Cruz in the end. You figure that by the end of the season he’ll have around 450 homers, and at age 40 it’s likely he’ll be able to stick around long enough to get to 500.

Right now he’s got a little less than 1900 career hits, and a little more than 1700 strikeouts, so he is just the kind of feast-or-famine slugger that has been created in the era of analytics, and is going to be evaluated by the voters in the years to come.

As for Friday night, he’s working with some pretty good history against Lucas Giolito, with a .400 lifetime average and four homers in 256 at bats. He’s struck out seven times, and hasn’t walked once. He will get his cuts.

Giolito gives up enough in the way of gopher balls (1.5 per nine innings) to be a viable foil in this prop, which doesn’t bring the greatest price but is nonetheless worth a play