The deeper we get into the month of March, the bigger the Kentucky Derby preps become on each Saturday’s racing schedule. This Saturday is no exception with the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs.
The official field for this race is still coming together but the final list of entries should be deep. You can expect to see more than a few talented three-year old Thoroughbreds vying for the crucial qualifying points that could lead to a spot in the 20-horse field for the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May. 7.
The fact that this Saturday’s featured event at Tampa Bay Downs has a total prize purse of $400,000 is another big plus for the trainers and owners entering a colt in this race.
2022 Tampa Bay Derby Predictions
Working through the list of probable entries for the 1 1/16 miles run on the dirt track at Tampa Bay Downs, I have come up with my top three picks to finish in the money.
When: Saturday, March 12th 2022
Where: Tampa Bay Downs
Win: Major General
My top choice to win Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby will be making his three-year old debut. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this Kentucky-bred colt closed out his juvenile campaign by winning the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 18. He covered the 1 1/16 miles on dirt with a winning time of 1:44.88.
The long layoff should not impact his performance in this race. Pletcher has been waiting for the right race to get his prized colt back on the track and the son of Constitution is ready to make his mark as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Major General started his racing career with a victory in a Maiden Special Weight race at Saratoga last summer.
Place: Classic Causeway
I have been following this colt since his third-place finish in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 9. He went on to place second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill to further bolster his two-year old racing resume.
Making his three-year old debut in this year’s Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, the Kentucky-bred colt won that 1 1/16 miles run on dirt with an impressive winning time of 1:42.80. Trained by Brian Lynch, the Giant’s Causeway sire could easily win this race as well if he is in top form. The betting recommendation would be to box my first two choices in an exacta wager.
Win/Place/Show Betting Strategy
Show: Shipsational
As my “best of the rest” in a projected field of 10 entries, this New York-bred colt has posted three victories in the first five events of his racing career. He closed out his two-year old season by winning the ungraded Sleepy Hollow Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct. 30. This followed a victory in the ungraded Bertram F. Bongard Stakes at Belmont in late September.
Trainer Edward Barker entered the son of Midshipman into this year’s Sam F. Davis and he did not disappoint with a second-place finish behind Classic Causeway. Volcanic was the show horse in that race. With a strong pedigree that goes back to Unbridled, Shipsational has the ability to run with the best this three-year old class has to offer.
