The UFC is going to be on pay-per-view on Saturday from Las Vegas.
UFC 255 will feature two title fights – both at the flyweight level. Deiveson Figueiredo puts his title on the line against Alex Perez and Valentina Shevchenko defends her title against Jennifer Maia.
Bet on This Event at the Best UFC Bookies
Last week went well. My longshot parlay lost, as McKee lost on the prelim card, two of my bets were cancelled (Smolka fight), Williams dominated as a huge dog and Dos Anjos won.
At the end of the night, I went 2-1 for a profit of +1.87 units. Williams cashed as a +187 underdog with another early first-round knockout. I doubt he’ll be an underdog again for a little while.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez Predictions
Fight Odds: Figueiredo (-300) vs. Perez (+240)
Figueiredo (19-1) has stepped up in his last three fights. He has won them all by stoppage in the 1st or 2nd round. His last two wins came against Benavidez and they weren’t even close.
Garbrandt was supposed to be fighting in the main event, but he’s injured, so Perez (24-5) will get a chance after already defeating Espinosa (Submission) and Formiga (TKO) this year.
However, four fights ago in 2018, Perez was knocked out in the first-round by Benavidez.
Figueiredo comes into this fight averaging 2.80 SLpM and 2.81 SApM. Perez comes into this fight averaging 4.68 SLpM and 3.10 SApM. The Brazilian has a 3’’ reach advantage, though.
I expect Perez to hang tough in the opening round, but he’s going to get cracked at some point.
Figueiredo has 9 TKO/KO wins and 7 submission wins. Perez has been stopped four times already in his career (1 TKO/KO and 3 Submissions), so it’s likely he’s going to get stopped on Saturday.
I’m going with Figueiredo inside the distance. You can bet him by TKO/KO at –130 odds right now, but with Perez having been tapped three times previously, I don’t want to risk it.
Best Bet: Deiveson Figueiredo ITD (-200)
Read Our Expert UFC Betting Guide
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia Predictions
Fight Odds: Shevchenko (-1600) vs. Maia (+925)
Since losing to Nunes and dropping down to flyweight, Shevchenko (19-3) has been unstoppable. She’s on a five-fight win streak, which includes a submission and two TKO/KO wins.
She has dominated Jedrzejczyk, Eye, Carmouche and Chookagian.
Maia (18-6-1) is 3-2 in the UFC and coming off an armbar submission against Calderwood. Prior to the win, she had lost to Chookagian, which is who Shevchenko just knocked out in the third round.
Maia isn’t a slouch, but her striking defense (53%) is weak and she averages 3.92 SApM. She’s going to eat a lot of shots in this fight, but will she end up losing inside the distance?
We obviously aren’t interested in Shevchenko on the moneyline. Maia has only been stopped twice in her career and the last time she was stopped was way back in 2012.
However, this is a five-round title fight and I expect her to get stopped eventually.
Best Bet: Valentina Shevchenko ITD (-175)
Read Our Expert Boxing Betting Guide
UFC 255 Underdog Special
Fight Odds: Moreno (-190) vs. Royval (+160)
Brandon Royval (12-4) is 2-0 since joining the UFC. He defeated Elliott and France by second-round submission. Brandon Moreno (17-5-1) is 5-2-1 in the UFC and has won two consecutive fights.
He defeated France and Formiga by decision. Both of these guys are submission specialists.
Royval has 8 submission wins and Moreno has 10 submission wins. Royval only has 3 TKO/KO wins, but he has more power than Moreno. Neither of these fighters have ever been stopped.
This is going to be a close fight between two title contenders at flyweight.
Moreno has the experience edge, but Royval has looked sharp in his two UFC fights. If Royval can stun Moreno early with his striking, it could open up the chance for a submission win.
Best Bet: Brandon Royval ML (+160) at America’s Bookie
Pay Per Head and Expert Handicappers Rankings
UFC 253 Parlay Picks
Here’s my parlay for UFC 253 on Saturday:
Figueiredo ML + Cosce ML + Daukaus ML (+113 Odds)
Louis Cosce (7-0) is making his UFC debut and he’s a big favorite against Sasha Palatnikov (5-2) who is also making his debut. Cosce has won all of his fights by stoppage (5 TKO/KO and 2 Submissions).
He should crush his opponent to get out to a 1-0 start in the UFC.
Kyle Daukaus (9-1) is fighting Dustin Stoltzfus (13-1) on the prelims. Daukaus lost his UFC debut to Allen and he needs to bounce back with a win against Stoltzfus who is making his debut.
Stoltzfus has finished his last five opponents, but Daukaus is a submission specialist. Daukaus has 8 wins by submission and I like him to come out and tap out his opponent.
UFC 255 Betting Lines
Here are the betting lines for every UFC 255 fight:
Deiveson Figueiredo (-300) vs. Alex Perez (+240)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1600) vs. Jennifer Maia (+925)
Mike Perry (-155) vs. Tim Means (+125)
Cynthia Calvillo (-272) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+217)
Paul Craig (-180) vs. Mauricio Rua (+150)
Brandon Moreno (-190) vs. Brandon Royval (+160)
Joaquin Buckley (-250) vs. Jordan Wright (+200)
Antonina Shevchenko (-162) vs. Ariane Lipski (+132)
Daniel Rodriguez (-315) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+255)
Alan Jouban (-155) vs. Jared Gooden (+125)
Kyle Daukaus (-315) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+255)
Louis Cosce (-462) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+352)
