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Score Big Wins: The Ultimate College Basketball Betting Guide
Our college basketball betting guide gives an in-depth look at NCAA basketball betting. We consider rule differences between NBA and NCAAB games, the kinds of bets you can place, when the best time to wager is, and more.
With around 300 D1 NCAAB teams competing every year, it can be difficult to narrow down your betting options. This guide will help you bet more confidently, and teach you how to find college basketball betting value.
NCAA Basketball Bets Today
Understanding College Basketball Betting
To the untrained eye, D1 college basketball might look like NBA basketball, but there are a few key differences.
First off, the season:
- College ball runs from roughly November to April, culminating in the iconic March Madness tournament.
- The NBA, on the other hand, stretches from October to April, with a 16-team playoff tournament from April to June.
The rules are also a bit different than NBA basketball. Here’s a look at the biggest points:
- College games consist of two 20-minute halves, whereas the NBA uses four 12-minute quarters.
- College players foul out after five infractions, with free throw variations depending on foul count, while NBA players have six fouls before exiting.
- Timeouts are scarcer in college too, with just four allowed per game compared to the NBA’s six.
- College basketball pushes the three-point line back a foot further, making long-range shots slightly more challenging.
These rule tweaks, along with younger, less experienced players, contribute to a faster-paced, more wide-open game in college compared to the more methodical approach of the NBA.
Women’s NCAA Basketball
While men’s NCAAB is quite popular, women’s NCAAB has also been on the rise. Women’s games have a slightly varied structure from men’s games, and WNBA games as well.
- Women’s games are played in four 10-minute quarters, totaling 40 minutes, compared to the men’s two 20-minute halves.
- In women’s games, teams get two free throws on the fifth team foul in a quarter, with a switch to one-and-one free throws on the seventh. Men’s games have a similar system, but with the switch to one-and-one on the team’s seventh foul in each half
- Women’s three-point line is slightly shorter than men’s, making long-range shots a bit more attainable.
Betting Differences Between NCAAB and NBA
The different rules for NCAA basketball change up the betting lines significantly. Typically, sportsbooks will offer point spreads for each quarter in the NBA, but there’s even less opportunity in two-half college games.
Plus, the shorter game overall, coupled with the fact that three-point shots are harder to hit, make for games with lower scores across the board.
While there are star players on the NCAAB who excel with long-range shots, your betting focus should rely less on 3-pointers, and more on offensive drives to the basket.
At the end of the day, you have to adjust how you think about betting on the NCAAB. You should be looking at team stats as a whole instead of individual player stats. These players are great hoopers, but they aren’t as experienced or consistent as NBA players.
Plus, with players graduating and leaving the team, there are always new faces to watch out for. This makes betting on player props less reliable.
Best College Basketball Bets
Here’s a brief overview of the types of bets you can place on college basketball. The point spread is by far the most popular, as it doesn’t rely on a single team to win a game. Sharp bettors know that betting totals, over/unders, and point spreads are often more valuable than moneylines alone.
Moneyline
This is a simple bet on which team will win the game straight up. The odds will reflect how favored one team is over the other. A negative (-) moneyline means you need to wager more than you potentially win on the favorite, while a positive (+) moneyline indicates a higher payout for an underdog victory.
Point Spread
This addresses the margin of victory. Sportsbooks set a point spread, essentially giving a head start (points) to the underdog. You can bet on the favorite to win by more than the spread (e.g., Duke -7.5) or the underdog to win outright or lose by less than the spread (e.g., Virginia Tech +7.5).
Over/Unders
This focuses on the total number of points scored in the game, total free throws, etc. (combined by both teams). The sportsbook sets a number (e.g., 140.5 points), and you can wager on whether the final score will be over or under that amount.
Futures
These are bets on long-term outcomes, not individual games. Examples include which team will win March Madness, a conference championship, or individual player awards.
Props
These are wagers on specific events within a game that may or may not happen, independent of the final score. Examples include which team will score first, how many three-pointers a certain player will make, or whether there will be a technical foul called in the game.
When Should You Wager on College Basketball?
With 300 D1 basketball teams and around 37 average games per season, there are more than 11,000 total games to bet on between November and April. It’s impossible to wager on every game, so knowing when to bet on college basketball is key.
We advise finding a handful of teams you’re confident in, identifying high-potential matchups, and diving deep into the research to make the most informed wager possible. In addition, you should also consider betting on these three events, as they often provide far more value than regular season games.
NCAA Conference Championships
The conference tournament features only teams from your chosen conference, typically around 10-14 teams. This allows you to focus your research and analysis on a smaller group compared to the vast number of teams playing throughout the regular season.
Plus, conference tournaments are single-elimination affairs. Every game carries immense pressure, leading to more intense and potentially unpredictable matchups compared to the regular season. This unpredictability can create more opportunities for value bets.
March Madness
March Madness is known for its thrilling upsets and Cinderella stories. Lower-seeded teams can potentially knock out top contenders, creating excitement and opportunities for value bets on underdogs.
Unlike the vast number of teams and games in the regular season, March Madness features only 68 teams competing over three weeks. This allows you to focus your research and analysis on a smaller group, potentially leading to more informed wagers.
Plus, March Madness captures the national spotlight, attracting a wider range of bettors and generating more diverse betting options beyond just the point spread and moneyline. You can wager on more props, futures, and other markets, offering better ways to potentially find value.
Rivalry Games
Rivalry games are packed with emotion and intensity for players, coaches, and fans. This can lead to unpredictable outcomes and potentially create value bets.
Teams in rivalries play each other more frequently, leading to a deeper understanding of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. This can help you make more informed decisions about potential advantages or disadvantages. For example, a team might consistently win at home in the rivalry or one team might struggle against a specific opponent’s zone defense.
Advanced NCAAB Statistics to Use
Of course, betting on NHL during the regular season is fun, but there are also a few key events you should watch out for. Things like the Draft or playoffs allow bettors to expand their sphere and find value when sportsbooks offer a wide range of options.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
True Shooting Percentage (TS%) can be a valuable tool in your arsenal, as it incorporates free throws, unlike eFG%, which does not.
Look for teams or players with high TS%. This indicates they’re efficient at converting shots into points, including valuable three-pointers. Target teams with consistently high TS% for over-point totals or player props with high point lines.
However, don’t rely on true shooting percentage alone.
TS% is an offensive metric, so you should also factor in the team’s defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession) alongside their opponent’s TS%. A strong defense can mitigate a high-TS% offense, reducing the point total or a team’s ability to cover a high spread.
Free Throw Rate (FT Rate)
Men’s college basketball frequently has more free throws per game than the NBA because the foul limit is five instead of six. You need to know how to use the free throw rate to pick out potential betting wins.
Teams with a consistently high FTR tend to score more efficiently. They’re adept at drawing fouls and converting free throws, which are worth two points each. Look to bet on these teams for over-point totals or to cover the spread if they’re favored.
Compare the FTR of both teams. If a team excels at getting to the free throw line (high FTR) against an opponent prone to fouling (high opponent FTR allowed), this could favor the high-FTR team to score more points and potentially cover the spread.
Sometimes, opposing teams will intentionally foul a weak free throw shooter (often a center) in hopes they miss. This can affect the overall free throw rate and point total of the game.
Offensive Rebound Rate
Because the men’s three-point line in college basketball is longer than in the NBA, teams often build their strategy around driving to the basket. The offensive rebound rate (ORB%) is a key stat that can help you determine if a team can convert missed shots effectively.
Teams with a consistently high ORB% get more offensive rebounds, which translates to more second-chance shot attempts. These extra opportunities can lead to more points scored, making them good targets for over point totals or to cover the spread if favored.
Analyze the ORB% of both teams. If a team with a high ORB% faces an opponent with a low defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%), it presents a good opportunity to bet on the high-ORB% team to grab more rebounds and potentially score more points.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
If you’re going to bet player props, you need to consider player efficiency ratings. Developed by John Hollinger, PER aims to be a single metric that considers a player’s positive contributions (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks) and subtracts negative ones (turnovers, missed shots). A PER of 15 is considered average in the NBA. College basketball doesn’t have an official benchmark, but generally, a higher PER indicates a more impactful player.
Look for players with a consistently high PER on teams you’re considering wagering on. This suggests they contribute significantly across various aspects of the game. These players could be viable options for player prop bets like points, rebounds, or assists.
PER doesn’t account for the strength of a player’s competition. A high PER in a weak conference might not translate as well against tougher opponents. Be cautious using PER for players on teams with a soft schedule.
College Basketball Betting Trends
College basketball betting trends, splits, and public betting percentages can be valuable tools for informed wagers, but it’s crucial to understand what they tell you and their limitations.
Joining a NCAAB betting forum can help you pay attention to trends and see what the public is betting. Here are some tips when looking at betting trends and splits:
- Look for discrepancies between the percentage of bets and the percentage of money wagered. A high percentage of money on a smaller percentage of bets often indicates “sharp money” from professional bettors. These bets might be worth considering.
- Don’t assume trends will continue indefinitely. Teams can get hot or cold, and betting lines adjust accordingly. Be cautious chasing a trend that might be nearing its end.
- The public isn’t always wrong. However, if a large percentage of bets are on one side (usually the favorite), it could inflate the spread. Consider the other side if you believe the line is overvalued due to public perception.
NCAAB News and Analysis
College Basketball Betting Tips
Even if you’ve been betting for years, there’s still always room for improvement. Here are some of our best college basketball betting tips that you can start implementing today:
Watch out for Signing Day
Signing day is like the equivalent of the NBA Draft, where the league picks the top college students to play professionally. Signing day brings high-school graduates into the fold of D1 basketball.
Many bettors don’t care about signing days because they don’t offer an immediate opportunity. High-school stars take time to get in the groove of college sports, and it might take a year or two before they see consistent time on the court. However, looking out for future betting opportunities is always a good practice.
For example, if a school picks up a fresh point guard player, and you know the team’s star starter will be graduating soon, you can assume the PG is going to train heavily to fill that role. It’s easier to watch a player’s progression over time than it is to try an info dump to get the full picture as you’re about to place a bet.
Keep a Personal Betting Record
Just as being aware of potential future betting options is a must, so too is personal record keeping. While it does take some time out of your day, making a brief record of your wagers can help you see how you’ve grown as a bettor.
Record each wager you place on the NCAAB, including the bet type, the outcome, the amount wagered, and how much you won/lost. Soon enough, you’ll be able to see patterns emerging in your data. Perhaps you always lose point spreads in the first half, but manage to get the total game score over/under win. Identifying these shortcomings allows you to turn them into solid betting opportunities in the future.
Subscribe to a Handicapper
Our final piece of advice is to subscribe to a handicapping service. Many bettors scoff at this part and shake their heads. But, just hear us out for a moment.
Handicappers spend a lot of time pouring over NCAAB data, as well as looking at sportsbook lines and prices. They have years of experience betting to make money, and even if you don’t take their picks, you can learn from their expertise. What games or teams are they looking at that you aren’t? Can you find similar opportunities?
Handicapping services cost some money, it’s true, but as long as you’re utilizing their experience in a way that also makes you money, it’s worth it.
Find the Best College Basketball Bets
Betting on college basketball can be challenging, especially with so many games played each season. However, NCAAB’s unique ruleset makes it easier to identify what statistics you need to use to make informed wagers. TS%, FT Rate, and ORB% can all help you take your betting game to the next level.
You should also consider subscribing to a handicapper with experience with college basketball bets. These folks spend their time finding betting value among the chaff, and it can give you a better view of what kinds of wagers are profitable.
At Scores and Stats, we have a team of dedicated handicappers who bet NCAAB all season long. You can access their deep roster of data and picks with our premium subscription.
