The last race of Round One of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is here with the running of the Bass Pro Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Forget the dusty, muddy, dirt race held at the track earlier – we’re back to bumping and running on the high-banked concrete surface with Kyle Busch as the favorite! He comes in at +400 just ahead of Kyle Larson at +450.

Busch, who dropped below the playoff cutline following the first race of Round 1, bounced back last week to land in the No 10 spot following Richmond. Busch has made Bristol his playground over the years and comes into the race weekend with 8 cup wins at the track under his belt.

NASCAR Bookies

As for Larson, he’s still looking for his first win at Thunder Valley in a Cup Series car. He’s not the only one. There are only six active Cup Series drivers with wins at one of NASCAR’s most popular venues. Those drivers are Busch and his brother Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano.

The big shift in the odds this week is that Joey Logano has risen higher in the eyes of oddsmakers when it comes to Bristol. On the other hand, Martin Truex Jr – who has been grouped among the favorites for weeks – has taken a tumble. He comes in at +1800. Here are the favorite drivers, through +800, to win the outright according to Intertops.

Kyle Busch +400

Kyle Larson +450

Denny Hamlin +600

Chase Elliott +800

Joey Logano +900

NASCAR Betting Beginners Guide

2021 Bristol Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview

Date: Saturday, September 18, 2021, 7:30 pm EST

Track: Bristol Motor Speedway / Bristol, Tennessee

Type: High-banked oval, concrete, .533 miles, 4 turns, progressive banking

Race Distance: 266.5 miles, 500 laps

Defending Track Winner: Kevin Harvick

TV/Radio: NBCS / MRN

This is the final race of Round One of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Sixteen drivers qualified to race for the Championship and four will be eliminated following the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Denny Hamlin and Truex are both locked into Round 2 with their wins during this round.

No. 1 Denny Hamlin -Locked in

No. 2 Martin Truex Jr. – Locked in

No. 3 Kyle Larson

No. 4 Joey Logano

No. 5 Ryan Blaney

No. 6 Kevin Harvick

No. 7 Chase Elliott

No. 8 Christopher Bell

No. 9 Brad Keselowski

No. 10 Kyle Busch

No. 11 Aric Almirola

No. 12 Kurt Busch

Cup Series Playoff Cut Line (Before Bristol)

No. 13 Alex Bowman

No. 14 Tyler Reddick

No. 15 William Byron

No. 16 Micheal McDowell

NASCAR Fantasy Tips

2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions

Kyle Busch +750

Many are pointing towards Bristol as the place where Kyle Busch gets his first win during this years Cup Series Playoffs. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing has 8 Cup Series wins at the track as well as 9 in the Xfinity Series, and 5 in the Truck Series. Last time on the Concrete in East Tennessee he finished 2nd behind Kevin Harvick.

Denny Hamlin +600

Denny Hamlin won at Bristol back in 2019 and he’s done well here several times in the Cup Series. His last ten visits to the track have gotten him 5 top-ten runs with 4 in the top-five. During that time he avoided wrecking out and completed 99.9% of schedule laps running 4996 of 5000 with over 250 laps as the leader.

Kevin Harvick +1100

I know that Kevin Harvick has not had the season that he was hoping for. But he’s still in the Cup Series Playoff hunt and according to NASCAR Fantasy stats, he’s the best driver when it comes to the last ten races at Bristol. Over those ten visits (on the concrete surface) he has 2 wins and 7 runs in the top ten. Harvick should make it into the next round on points but he would love to do it with a win.

Others: Chase Elliott (+800) has been very close to getting a win at Bristol. He’s cracked the top ten 6 times with a 7th place run last time around. Kurt Busch (+1800) has won at Bristol 6 times in the Cup Series with his last one coming in 2018. Since then he’s finished 5th or better three times.

NASCAR Handicapping Statistics

2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Lines

Kyle Busch +400

Kyle Larson +450

Denny Hamlin +600

Chase Elliott +800

Joey Logano +900

Kevin Harvick +1100

Ryan Blaney +1200

Brad Keselowski +1600

Kurt Busch +1800

Martin Truex Jr +1800

William Byron +2000

Christopher Bell +2200

Alex Bowman +2500

Tyler Reddick +2800

Ross Chastain +2800

Aric Almirola +4500

Austin Dillon +5000

Matt Dibenedetto +5500

Ricky Stenhouse Jr +8000

Darrell Wallace Jr. +8000

Daniel Suarez +10000

Cole Custer +15000

Ryan Newman +15000

Chris Buescher +15000

Chase Briscoe +20000

Erik Jones +25000

Ryan Preece +30000

Michael McDowell +30000

Corey Lajoie +50000

Anthony Alfredo +50000

Justin Haley +50000

Quinn Houff +100000

BJ McLeod +100000

J.J. Yeley +100000

David Starr +100000

Garrett Smithley +100000

James Davison +100000

Josh Bilicki +100000