2025 NBA MVP Award Odds and Predictions

Slam Dunk Your Bets

With The Best
Handicapping Membership!

Get Free Trial

As the 2024-25 NBA regular season draws to a close, the field of contenders for Most Valuable Player has narrowed considerably. What began as a crowded crop of superstars vying for the trophy has now narrowed to just two names: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. With only a handful of games left, sportsbooks have all but made up their minds, and voters may not be far behind.

With the playoffs on the horizon, it’s also a great time to dive into our full league coverage, including updated NBA championship odds and expert NBA picks.

NBA MVP Odds

Check out the latest NBA MVP odds courtesy of the top sports betting sites.

These odds tell the story. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who opened at +500, is now a massive favorite at -3000. Nikola Jokic, a 3-time league MVP, has drifted to +1000 with the season coming to a close. Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Anthony Edwards have essentially been eliminated from contention.

It’s now a two-man race—SGA vs. Jokic—and the betting markets are leaning in one direction. If you’re betting on NBA awards, it’s a good time to follow the trends from the best handicappers or compare numbers on our full NBA odds page.

NBA MVP Race

Let’s take a closer look at the two players left standing in the NBA MVP race:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-3000)

Shai has been the driving force behind the league’s most dominant team. The Oklahoma City Thunder finished as the top seed in the West last season in surprising fashion, but they weren’t sneaking up on anybody heading into this term.

Oklahoma City has been the league’s best team for the vast majority of the season, and they’ll cruise into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference again. As of this writing, the Thunder are a league-best 64-14 and 12.5 games ahead of the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets. There are still questions about whether the young Thunder can hold up over the course of a long playoff run, but their regular-season prowess speaks for itself.

The team has dealt with a few injuries to important players, but Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force throughout. SGA is averaging a career-high 32.6 points per game, and he’s going to win the scoring title going away. His combination of size (6’6″) and savvy makes him a nightmare for defenders. He’s shooting nearly 52 percent from the field – rarefied air for a guard. He’s also knocked down over 37 percent of his 3-pointers and better than 90 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe.

The best player on the best team is often in the MVP race. That said, Gilgeous-Alexander simply is not the best player in basketball. Gilgeous-Alexander is a gifted scorer and an underrated defensive presence, and I fully expect voters to reward him with MVP. He’s deserving, but he wouldn’t get my vote.

Nikola Jokic (+1000)

Nikola Jokic is no stranger to this conversation. The three-time MVP and former Finals MVP has once again led the Denver Nuggets to a strong regular season behind his trademark versatility. Jokic has no legitimate weaknesses in his game, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

Jokic is having the best statistical season of his career, which is saying a lot. He’s averaging a career-best 30 points per game along with 12.8 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and just under a block per game. Oh, and he’s also shooting better than 41 percent from 3-point country, which ranks 21st in the league. Jokic is also playing nearly 37 minutes per game, which ranks among the league leaders.

However, the Nuggets haven’t been as successful as the Thunder this season, which hampers Jokic’s MVP case. Denver is among the gaggle of teams battling for the No. 3 seed in the West. At 47-32, Denver is currently sitting 4th, though they’re only a half-game in front of the LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, and Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s a remarkably tightly bunched race with less than a week to play, and we’ll see where the Nuggets wind up.

The relative lack of team success is what may cost Jokic a 4th career MVP despite the possibility that he’s more deserving this season than ever before. Sometimes, that’s just the way it goes in the NBA. Narratives rule the day, and I fully expect the voters to reward Gilgeous-Alexander for his personal and team success.

NBA MVP Predictions

At this point, it would take a miracle for anyone other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP. With the Thunder outperforming expectations and Shai leading the way, both the numbers and the storyline are working in his favor. Jokic is clearly the better all-around player in a vacuum, but narrative often wins MVP—and this year, it’s hard to argue against SGA’s case.

It’s worth mentioning that this is not the same as NBA Finals MVP, which will be awarded based on postseason play. The regular-season MVP is more about sustained excellence and team success over 82 games—and in 2025, no one has embodied that more than Shai.

There’s next to no value in betting on Gilgeous-Alexander’s current -3000 odds, but the award is certainly his to lose. Is the Western Conference, OKC’s to lose? We’ll see who they play in the first round after the conclusion of the NBA Play-In Tournament.

Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-3000

Recent NBA MVP Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NBA MVP winners: