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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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NASCAR fans and bettors, we the checkered flag has dropped on the season as we head into the last racing weekend of the year. Yet, there’s still so much excitement packed into the final three days of the season that we’re bursting at the seams to talk about it.
All three of the sport’s top circuits will participate in Championship Weekend, where NASCAR will crown champions for each Series at the intermediate track of Phoenix Raceway.
The Craftsman Truck Series kicks off this unforgettable weekend of racing action with their Championship Race on Friday, October 31, at 7:30pm ET on FS1. Make sure you take the kids out for candy and then get back in time to see who was tricked and which driver was treated to a trophy.
The Xfinity Series is next up. And, like the Truck Series, we’re on the cusp of a historic conclusion depending on if Connor Zilisch can win the title or not. The Xfinity Series Championship race will begin at 7:30pm ET on Saturday, November 1. You can watch this race in its entirety on The CW.
On Sunday, November 2, at 3pm ET, the biggest stars of NASCAR will close out the year with Phoenix fireworks as race fans are in for a battle with the Cup Series Championship Race. This thrilling event can be seen on NBC, Peacock, and HBO MAX.
If you miss any of this weekend’s races at Phoenix Raceway, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results.
So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.
NASCAR Picks Today
| NASCAR Bets | Favorites | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Cup Series Championship Race Winner | Denny Hamlin (+350) | Kyle Larson (+475) |
| Xfinity Series Championship Race Winner | Connor Zilisch (+250) | Connor Zilisch (+250) |
| Truck Series Championship Race Winner | Corey Heim (-120) | Corey Heim (-120) |
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: Cup Series Championship Race
- Race #: 36th of the season
- Date: November 2
- Where: Phoenix Raceway
The Cup Series will conclude its season on Sunday, Nov. 2, with the Championship Race that features four drivers battling for the 2025 title.
The inside lane features Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson and William Byron. The outside lane boasts of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe. Once the checkered flag drops on this race, we will see the crowning of a new NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
While all four drivers will be competing against each other, this team vs. team dynamic adds another layer of story and intrigue. Could we see the teammates joining forces until a last-lap dog fight?
As for the race itself, there are another three-dozen drivers still competing for the win. So, will we see a Final Four driver win this race or will a non-Final Four driver take the final checkered flag?
Cup Series Championship Race Odds
- Denny Hamlin (+350)
- William Byron (+400)
- Kyle Larson (+475)
- Ryan Blaney (+600)
- Chase Briscoe (+650)
- Christopher Bell (+700)
- Joey Logano (+1200)
- Chase Elliott (+2000)
- Tyler Reddick (+2500)
- Ross Chastain (+2800)
- Josh Berry (+4000)
- Bubba Wallace (+5000)
- Chris Buescher (+5000)
- Alex Bowman (+6600)
- Brad Keselowski (+6600)
Cup Series Championship Race Favorites
The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Cup Series Championship Race on Sunday:
Denny Hamlin (+350) enters the weekend as the odds-on favorite to win the race and the Championship itself. He leads the Cup Series in wins on the year and has been a consistent contender all season long.
In 40 Phoenix races, Hamlin has two wins, 17 Top 5s, 23 Top 10s, and a Series leading 10.6 average finish. Hamlin was runner up in the 2025 spring race at this venue, but has not won here since 2019. He was 11th in this race last year, 8th in 2023 and 2022.
Over his last five fall races at Phoenix, Hamlin has a 6.6 average finish. That’s not the best numbers among the Final Four but it is up there. Add that to his season-long consistency, and Hamlin is the man to beat on Sunday.
William Byron (+400) has the third best average finish at Phoenix (10.8) and has been strong at this venue over the last few years. Since the 2022 fall race, Byron has one win, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s in his last six Phoenix races. He also has a 4.3 average finish over the last three fall Phoenix races.
While Byron has never won this race, it is his third straight Final Four appearance which means he will have the confidence and experience to challenge for the race win and the championship.
Kyle Larson (+475) is the only driver in the Final Four to have won a championship already. His title came in 2021, which is the year he won this race. So, it’s surprising that Larson’s odds are the third best considering he’s a former champ.
In 22 Phoenix starts, Larson has one win, 10 Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, and a 10.7 average finish which is the second best. However, of the Championship contenders, Larson has the best results in this fall Phoenix race since 2020.
Over that span, he has a 4.2 average finish. In fact, 11 of his 14 Top 10s have come in the last 13 Phoenix races. Despite nearly six months going by since his last win, the no.5 car is a real threat for the win this Sunday.
Ryan Blaney (+600) has never won at Phoenix and isn’t involved in the Final Four this weekend. However, the 2023 champ is the one non-Championship four driver that is a true contender this Sunday.
Prior to an engine failure in the spring this year, Blaney had seven consecutive Top 5s at Phoenix. In the last four fall Phoenix events, Blaney has a 2.5 average finish. He’s finished as the runner up in this race for three straight years. Could we see a fourth in a row?
Chase Briscoe (+650) has been one of the most consistent drivers all season long. Yet, he doesn’t get the credit that his other JGR teammates get like Hamlin and Christopher Bell.
With that said, Briscoe has won at Phoenix before. He took the checkered flag in the spring of 2022. Unfortunately, he has two straight finishes of 29th or worse. In fact, three of his last four Phoenix appearances have ended 24th or worse.
Despite his difficulties in recent races at this venue, Briscoe’s consistency throughout the postseason makes his +650 odds appealing considering he has two wins, five Top 5s, and seven Top 10s over the last nine races. Additionally, Briscoe won two weeks ago.
Cup Series Championship Race Betting Value
The following Cup Series drivers offer betting value for Sunday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Phoenix Raceway:
Joey Logano (+1200) is a three-time Cup Series champion but failed to make the Final Four this year after a disappointing postseason. However, when it comes to Phoenix, Logano has four wins which is the most among active drivers. He’s also won two of the last three fall Phoenix races. At +1200 odds, that’s solid betting value for a race win.
Chase Elliott (+2000) has a decent Phoenix resume with one win, five Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and a 12.2 average finish. He was 8th in this race last year, but won it in 2020. So, the no. 9 car offers small value on Sunday.
The Top Cup Series Championship Race Longshot
Kyle Busch (+6600) is our longshot bet with three wins, 12 Top 5s, 27 Top 10s, and an 11.4 average finish which is the 5th best among the field. He won this race in 2018, and had a strong run for about eight seasons before tailing off.
However, he did finish 8th in the spring race this year, proving Busch still has potential. And, that’s all we can ask for with a longshot bet.
Cup Series Championship Race Predictions
Considering the four drivers that are still eligible for the Championship, I think one of them will also win this race. I feel like we’ll see a performance like Logano over the last few years where this weekend’s winner will rise to the occasion and take the checkered flag along with the trophy.
With that said, I like Kyle Larson. He’s the only driver among the Final Four to have won a championship before. Plus, he can still raise his recent postseason success to another level. While I think this is the most wide-open Final Four in recent years, I am giving the edge to Larson to win the race and his second title.
Bet: Kyle Larson (+475)
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week
- Race: Xfinity Series Championship Race
- Race #: 33rd of the season
- Date: November 1
- Where: Phoenix Raceway
The Xfinity Series rolls into its final weekend of the season and the stakes are as high as they get as four drivers will compete for the coveted Xfinity Series Championship.
Three JR Motorsports drivers will battle against each other for this trophy and the odds favor one of them winning this Championship Race. Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier sit at the top of the betting boards, but their third teammate Carson Kvapil isn’t far behind. Additionally, let’s not forget Jesse Love’s strong season and chances of winning, as well.
Will one of the Final Four drivers win this Championship Race? Will we see another surprise Playoff winner? Can Zilisch win his 11th race of the season? Can Almirola upstage the Final Four drivers?
Xfinity Series Championship Race Odds
- Connor Zilisch (+250)
- Justin Allgaier (+300)
- Aric Almirola (+400)
- Carson Kvapil (+1000)
- Jesse Love (+1000)
- Brandon Jones (+1400)
- Sammy Smith (+1400)
- Taylor Gray (+1400)
- Sheldon Creed (+1800)
- Ryan Sieg (+2000)
- Austin Hill (+2200)
- Corey Day (+3300)
- Justin Bonsignore (+3300)
- Brenden Queen (+6600)
- Christian Eckes (+6600)
Xfinity Series Championship Race Favorites
The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Xfinity Series Championship Race on Saturday:
Connor Zilisch (+250) has just two Phoenix appearances but it was enough for the no.88 team to get a feel for this track in order to beat out the rest of the Championship contenders. Earlier this spring, Zilisch finished 16th at this track and was 4th last year.
Don’t let his lack of domination at this venue fool you. Zilisch put on a historic performance this season with eight wins in 11 races and 18 consecutive Top 5s. Don’t be surprised if he snags his 11th win of the year and run off to the Cup Series with the checkered flag, a championship trophy, and the history books.
Justin Allgaier (+300) has two wins, 12 Top 5s, 20 Top 10s, and a 9.6 average finish. More importantly, the reigning Xfinity Series champ has a 4.4 average finish in the last five fall Phoenix races. He also won at this track in 2019.
When you combine his recent success along with the Championship experience, Allgaier is a legitimate threat to derail Zilisch’s Hollywood ending.
Aric Almirola (+400) is the one non-Playoff driver that can throw a monkey wrench into JR Motorsports plans this weekend. Almirola won the spring race at this track earlier this season and was 4th in this race last year. He’s already captured two wins over the Postseason races and should’ve been contending for a championship instead of an owner’s crown.
The Best Xfinity Series Championship Race Betting Value
The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds and season to date:
Carson Kvapil (+1000) is the third member of JR Motorsports to contend for the 2025 Xfinity Series Championship. His surprise run could turn into a “dream come true” scenario if he can pull off an epic upset.
When it comes to Kvapil, just throw out the stats because he didn’t win a race this year and has some of the lowest numbers we’ve seen in a Final Four on the season. Yet, his luck could continue on Saturday. So, there is some small value with his race-winning odds.
Jesse Love (+1000) enters this weekend on a solid run with six Top 10s and seven Top 12s in the last nine races. He also challenged Zilisch for the best average finish and most Top 10s on the year. These facts are overlooked due to the dominance of JR Motorsports.
In three Phoenix starts, Love has one Top 5 and three Top 9s, with a 5.7 average finish. He’s definitely a threat to win on Saturday and to take home the championship, as well.
The Top Xfinity Series Championship Race Longshot
Austin Hill (+2200) is our longshot of choice for this weekend’s race. He’s second in the Xfinity Series with four wins and third in Top 5s, despite being eliminated from the Playoffs early on.
Hill is one of the only “longshots” that has a shot at derailing the favorites despite never winning here before. Yet, five Top 10s in seven starts means there is a chance.
Xfinity Series Championship Race Predictions
This race will come down to Love, Almirola, Allgaier and Zilisch. Anyone of these four drivers has a shot at winning especially the latter three names. Almirola has been the ultimate buzz kill in the Playoffs, while Allgaier has won here as well.
With that said, Zilisch is going to pull of the win on Saturday. It just feels like Zilisch is destined to cap off this historic season with a Championship due to winning the final race of the year.
Bet: Connor Zilisch (+250)
NASCAR Truck Series Picks This Week
- Race: Truck Series Championship Race
- Race #: 25th of the season
- Date: October 31
- Where: Phoenix Raceway
Can anyone upset Corey Heim for the 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship?
That is the big question coming into Friday’s final race of the year. Heim has rewritten the record books just like Zilisch has in the Xfinity Series.
Yet, where Zilisch has legitimate competition for the championship, it doesn’t feel like Heim has that same threat.
Can Heim win his 12th of the season? Will a non-Playoff driver upstage the Playoff field? Will we see Ty Majeski win a second championship in a row?
Truck Series Championship Race Odds
- Corey Heim (-120)
- Ty Majeski (+400)
- Layne Riggs (+450)
- Chandler Smith (+900)
- Kaden Honeycutt (+1400)
- Grant Enfinger (+2000)
- Tyler Ankrum (+2200)
- Corey LaJoie (+3300)
- Daniel Hemric (+3300)
- Gio Ruggiero (+3500)
- Brent Crews (+4000)
- Rajah Caruth (+4500)
Truck Series Championship Race Favorites
The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Truck Series Championship Race:
Corey Heim (-120) has one Top 5, two Top 10s, a 9.0 average finish, and led laps in his three previous Phoenix starts. While he hasn’t won here in his Truck Series career, Heim has been knocking off tracks at a record clip this year.
Heim has 11 wins, 18 Top 5s, 20 Top 10s, and a 5.2 average finish in 24 starts this season to date. It’s been an amazing run for any NASCAR driver this year and can only be compared by Zilisch’s run.
With that said, Heim has won seven of the last 10 Truck Series races including last weekend. He’s also finished in the Top 3 for all 10 of those races. It’s Heim vs. the world on Friday.
Ty Majeski (+400) is the reigning Truck Series champion as he won this race last year to capture the crown. Prior to that, Majeski had never finished in the Top 10 at this track in four starts.
Adding to his Championship experience, is the fact that Majeski has been very consistent over the last few months with five Top 5s in the last seven races and 11 consecutive Top 10 finishes.
Layne Riggs (+450) lost out on a tie breaker last week in Martinsville to be eliminated from the Playoffs. It was a surprise considering that Riggs was arguably the second-best driver in the Truck Series this season.
He could definitely upstage Heim and the Final Four drivers. But I would say that his odds are slightly overvalued considering that Riggs has an 11.5 average finish at Phoenix with one Top 10 in two starts at this track.
Truck Series Championship Race Betting Value
The following Truck Series drivers offer betting value for Friday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at Phoenix:
Chandler Smith (+900) is the one driver that could challenge Heim for the race win. In four Phoenix starts, Smith has four Top 3s and a win in 2021.
While he was in the Xfinity Series over the last few seasons, Smith has been a strong driver this year as he was only one of three drivers to have more than one win on the season. Could he pick up his third victory this year, by winning on Friday?
Kaden Honeycutt (+1400) was the driver to win the tiebreaker with Riggs and advance to the Championship Race. He comes into this weekend behind Heim and Majeski in the Championship odds, but Honeycutt has finished in the Top 9 for all four of his Phoenix starts.
He was runner up last weekend in Martinsville and could ride that wave of luck to a shocking title victory.
Top Truck Series Championship Race Longshot
Tyler Ankrum (+2200) is the fourth and final driver contending for the Craftsman Truck Series Championship. Yet, he has the worse stats among the final four contenders with a 17.6 average finish. It’s been five years since he’s cracked the Top 10 in this race and he crashed out of the 2024 edition.
Ankrum has finished in the Top 9 for the last three Playoff races. So, he has some momentum coming into Friday’s race but this is why he’s more of a longshot than the others.
Truck Series Championship Race Predictions
It’s Heim Time. Out of all three of NASCAR’s top circuits, Heim is the one driver that you would bet your house on to win one race and all the glory in his respective Series. Zilisch would be a very close second to Heim.
Yet, Heim has 11 wins in 24 races, which is unheard of. Plus 20 Top 10s means he’s constantly one of the best drivers every week. Take Heim to win this race and the Truck Series Championship.
Bet: Corey Heim (-120)
Favorite NASCAR Picks Of The Week
With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week.
Corey Heim To Win Truck Series Championship
Corey Heim is a -190 favorite to win the Truck Series Championship this weekend, even if he doesn’t win the race (-120). However, I think he sweeps up both accomplishments on Friday as Heim has been the best driver in the Truck Series all year long. In fact, you have to say he’s NASCAR’s top driver for 2025.
Connor Zilisch To Win Xfinity Series Championship
I see Zilisch’s historic season ending with a celebration, trophy, and championship parade. Zilisch (+110) is favored to win the title, but he will have heavy competition from his teammate and defending Xfinity champ Justin Allgaier.
And, that doesn’t even include Aric Almirola pestering both JR Motorsports drivers for the race win on Saturday.
I like the Hollywood ending for both Heim and Zilisch as they rewrote their respective record books while creating a compelling drama that should end with fireworks, celebrations, and championships.
