NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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With a new month, comes renewed expectations for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs and the final race of the Xfinity Series regular season.

While the Craftsman Truck Series is on hiatus this weekend, the other two circuits will be racing on the intermediate-track of the World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in Illinois. Yes, that is a mouthful. What’s even crazier is the title sponsor for the Xfinity race.

The Xfinity Series will take to the track on Saturday evening at 7:30pm ET for the Nu Way 200 Sauced by Blues Hog. For some reason, this title makes me hungry.

This will be the final race of the regular season for the Xfinity Series and there are still a couple of spots up for grabs. The 12^th and final Playoff spot is an absolute war between cousins Harrison Burton and Jeb Burton. You can watch that family feud and the entire race on The CW.

The Cup Series will take to WWTR on Sunday, September 7, for the Enjoy Illinois 300 beginning at 3pm ET on USA. This is the second race of the Playoffs and there’s just one more opening round event after this race before the first cut of drivers takes place.

If you miss any of this weekend’s races at the WWTR at Gateway, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results.

So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Enjoy Illinois 300
• Race #: 28th of the season
• Date: September 7
• Where: World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway

The Cup Series kicked off their postseason last weekend in Darlington. Chase Briscoe absolutely dominated that race as he took the checkered flag and advanced to the second round of the Playoffs. 15 other postseason drivers are hoping to find victory lane this weekend, so they can advance as well.

Even with Briscoe’s impressive performance, he still comes in behind the favorites of Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Blaney and Hamlin sit at the top of the betting boards for this weekend’s WWTR race. Christopher Bell joins them at the top, along with Joey Logano and Larson.

Sunday’s race marks just the fourth time that the Cup Series has competed at this venue. Last year’s race was won by Austin Cindric.

The Fords are moving to the front of the field for the Enjoy Illinois 300. They have won two of the three races at this venue. Will we see them win a third?

Which Playoff driver will win this race and advance? Will we see a non-Playoff driver like Kyle Busch win the Enjoy Illinois 300?

Enjoy Illinois 300 Odds

• Ryan Blaney (+500)
• Christopher Bell (+500)
• Denny Hamlin (+600)
• Joey Logano (+800)
• Kyle Larson (+900)
• Chase Briscoe (+900)
• Tyler Reddick (+1200)
• William Byron (+1400)
• Austin Cindric (+1600)
• Chase Elliott (+2000)
• Bubba Wallace (+2200)
• Kyle Busch (+2200)
• Josh Berry (+2500)

Enjoy Illinois 300 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Enjoy Illinois 300 on Sunday:

Ryan Blaney (+500) comes into this race sitting 7^th in the Playoff standings. He has two Top 6s in three starts and has led laps in all three races at WWTR. Blaney finished 24^th last year, which dropped his average finish to 11.3 after a 5.0 over the first two races.

Christopher Bell (+500) dropped to 10^th in the Playoff standings after a disappointing performance at Darlington last weekend. However, he has the 5^th best average finish among Cup drivers (9.0) and has never finished outside of the Top 11. Last year, Bell led 80 laps but faded in the end to finish 7^th.

Denny Hamlin (+600) sits in second for the Playoff standings and leads in points for the drivers not named Chase Briscoe. At WWTR, he started off 34^th in 2022, but has since then finished runner up in 2023 and 2024. He’s also done this without leading a lap.

Last weekend wasn’t the result that he hoped for, despite his two cars finishing ahead of him at Darlington. This weekend, I think Hamlin would love another runner up spot.

Joey Logano (+800) comes into this race sitting three points below the cutoff line. Currently, Shane Van Gisbergen sits in the 12^th and final Playoff spot for the Round of 12. So, the defending Cup Champ will need a strong result this weekend to be in a position to advance after next week.

Fortunately, for the #22 car, WWTR is a track where he’s had plenty of success at. Logano leads the Cup Series with a staggering 3.0 average finish. He won this race in 2022, was 3^rd in 2023, and finish 5^th last year. It’s not out of the question to think he can challenge for the checkered flag on Sunday.

Kyle Larson (+900) has a respectable 8.7 average finish at WWTR and has never finished outside of the Top 12. His best result was in 2023, when he finished 4^th. Last year, Larson was 10^th. He’s led laps in the last two WWTR Cup races.

Larson entered the Playoffs tied atop the standings. He’s fallen to third after a lackluster performance last weekend. The #5 car needs a win to restore his mojo.

Chase Briscoe (+900) dominated at Darlington last weekend leading the most laps, winning stages, and taking the checkered flag. It was an impressive performance to say the least. The win pushed him through to the next round.

That’s a good thing for the #19 team because Briscoe has struggled at WWTR in the past. He has a 25.0 average finish at this venue with a 17^th in last year’s race being his best result. Of the favorites, I would fade his chances at winning this Sunday.

The Best Enjoy Illinois 300 Betting Value

The following Cup Series drivers offer betting value for Sunday’s race based on their current odds, season to date, and previous success at WWTR at Gateway:

Austin Cindric (+1600) offers the best value this weekend, in my opinion. He’s the defending race winner and has an 8.3 average finish at WWTR. Cindric has never finished outside of the Top 13 at this venue.

Currently, Cindric sits 12 points above the cutoff line in the 9^th spot. He needs a strong result this weekend to better his chances of advancing to the Round of 12 in two weeks. I believe the Team Penske driver will get it. He’s at least a Top 10 car and could even finish in the Top 5.

Kyle Busch (+2200) didn’t make the Playoffs for a second year in a row. Yet, he’s still a car to keep an eye on this weekend. Busch crashed out of last year’s race. Prior to that, he won the 2023 WWTR race, and he finished runner up in 2022.

However, with the way Busch has been driving over the last two seasons, I think his value is in a Top 10 finish (+130) rather than a race win.

The Top Enjoy Illinois 300 Longshot

AJ Allmendinger (+15000) is my longshot bet this weekend. Sure, I could go with another Playoff driver like Alex Bowman but Allmendinger finished 10^th in 2023, and 14^th last year.

For me, that means his longshot odds (+600) of finishing in the Top 10 are worthy of a small flier. A 12.0 average finish at WWTR is a solid number.

Enjoy Illinois 300 Predictions

I have said it a few times over the summer, but for me, the opening round of the Playoffs was going to be about a few key drivers: Kyle Larson and Joey Logano.

I think both drivers needed to get off to a strong start in the postseason to regain some momentum and reestablish themselves as true contenders for the Championship.

Between the two, Logano is the more desperate of the two. Larson can finish in the Top 10 and still sit high in the Playoff standings. Logano is fighting to get above the cutoff line.

Over the last few years, Logano has flipped the switch in the Playoffs to win two of the last three Cup Series Championships. While I wouldn’t rule out another run at the title, I will say that it’s going to be harder this year than the last three seasons.

With that said, I am taking Logano to win this race. He leads the field with a 3.0 average finish and has finished in the Top 5 for all three WWTR races. That consistency is too much to pass up for another driver that might be considered a better pre-race favorite.

Bet: Joey Logano (+800)

Enjoy Illinois 300 Top 5 Finish

• Ryan Blaney (-125)
• Christopher Bell (-125)
• Denny Hamlin (+100)
• Joey Logano (+150)
• Kyle Larson (+160)
• Chase Briscoe (+160)
• Tyler Reddick (+220)
• William Byron (+250)

I am rolling with Joey Logano (+150) for this prop bet, as well. The big reason is, he has three Top 5s in all three WWTR appearances. No other driver even has three Top 10s.

In his lone Xfinity appearance at WWTR, he finished runner up. So, that’s four Top 5s in four WWTR appearances spanning two circuits.

So, even if he fails to take the checkered flag, I still believe that Logano can be a Top 5 car.

Bet: Joey Logano (+150)

Enjoy Illinois 300Top 10 Finish

• Ryan Blaney (-330)
• Christopher Bell (-330)
• Denny Hamlin (-280)
• Joey Logano (-225)
• Kyle Larson (-190)
• Chase Briscoe (-190)
• Tyler Reddick (-160)
• William Byron (-150)
• Austin Cindric (-140)

While we could certainly throw some of the favorites into this prop bet, I try to find the optimal marriage of past success and current odds. That presents us with great value. And, the one driver who does that for this race, is Austin Cindric.

Cindric has the third best average finish at 8.3, is competing in the Playoffs, and won this race last year. Furthermore, he’s never finished lower than 13^th at WWTR and has led laps in two of the three Cup Series races at this venue.

Bet: Austin Cindric (-140)

Enjoy Illinois 300 Winning Car Number

• Over 17.5 (-125)
• Under 17.5 (-105)

Although I took Logano to win this race, I am hedging my bets by going with the Under for this prop bet. Cindric (2) and Busch (8), the two last winners, are both Under 17.5; while pre-race favorites Blaney (12), Hamlin (11) and Larson (5) are all Under, as well. Even my longshot driver Allmendinger (16) is just Under the 17.5 mark.

Bet: Under 17.5 (-105)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: Nu Way 200 Sauced by Blues Hog
• Race #: 26th of the season
• Date: September 6
• Where: World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway

This is the first time that the Xfinity Series has competed at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway since 2010. So, we can pretty much throw out all of the past track stats as most of these drivers weren’t even racing back then.  

Saturday’s WWTR at Gateway night race marks the final event of the regular season. Coming into this weekend, there are four Playoff spots that have not been locked up.

With that said, the 12^th and final spot is really the only one that could see a driver below the cutoff line take that place. The 9^th through 11^th positions would be more about seeding. And, if a driver below the cutoff wins this race, then it pushes those three drivers down a peg.

So, all eyes will be on the drivers below the cutoff line like Jeb Burton, Ryan Sieg and Christan Eckes who are fighting for the final spot. Only Burton is close enough to get it without a win. But he would need his cousin Harrison to falter as well.

The JR Motorsports drivers sit atop the betting boards for this race, just as they do with the 2025 Xfinity Series Championship. Yet, I think they will be more cautious this weekend as to not risk anything for the Playoffs. However, that doesn’t mean they can’t win.

Who will capture the 12^th Playoff spot? Will the Xfinity Series get turned upside down due to a driver below the cutoff line winning on Saturday night? Can Connor Zilisch continue his hot streak? feuding cousins play a role in the outcome of this race?

Nu Way 200 Odds

• Connor Zilisch (+260)
• Justin Allgaier (+260)
• Aric Almirola (+400)
• Jesse Love (+900)
• Sheldon Creed (+1000)
• Austin Hill (+1000)
• Sam Mayer (+1000)
• Sammy Smith (+1200)
• Taylor Gray (+1600)
• Brandon Jones (+2000)
• Carson Kvapil (+2000)
• Nicholas Sanchez (+5000)
• Harrison Burton (+10000)
• Jeb Burton (+10000)

Nu Way 200 Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Nu Way 200 on Saturday:

Connor Zilisch (+260) sits in first place for the Xfinity Series standings and needs a respectable finish to capture the regular season title. He’s won three races in a row, six of the last seven, and has 13 consecutive Top 5 finishes.

Justin Allgaier (+260) hasn’t won a race in a few months. That’s because his teammate has been taking all of the checkered flags since then. Nevertheless, Allgaier is one of the only Xfinity drivers to have competed at this track.

He sits 20 points behind Zilisch for the top spot in the standings, and I see that as the carrot dangling in front of him. Allgaier has two Top 6s in the last three Xfinity events.

Aric Almirola (+400) returns to Xfinity racing. This is his 11^th appearance in the circuit. If he would’ve driven a full season, Almirola would’ve been in the Playoffs especially since he won at Phoenix.

Almirola did race at WWTR in the Cup Series, and has a 12.0 average finish with a 5^th place finish in 2022. You combine that with his 60% Top 10 finishing rate this season, and you have a potential contender.

The Best Nu Way 200 Betting Value

The following Xfinity Series drivers offer betting value for Saturday’s race based on their current odds and season to date:

Jesse Love (+900) sits 4^th in the standings but has the most Top 10s (17) out of anyone in the Xfinity Series. And, that includes Zilisch (16), as well.

Love has four Top 5s and eight Top 10s in his last 10 Xfinity races. He finished runner up at Pocono and Iowa. His proven consistency makes him a value play this weekend.

Austin Hill (+1000) sits in 5^th, just one spot behind his teammate Love. Yet, he has three wins on the year and two Top 5s in his last three Xfinity races. Hill is a streaky driver, so if he can get a solid result this weekend, then we could see him go on a run in the Playoffs. I think a Top 10 isn’t out of the question for the #21 car.

Sam Mayer (+1000) is probably the most overlooked driver in the Xfinity Series right now. Most of the attention is on the JR Motorsports or RCR drivers who sit in the Top 5. However, Mayer is third in the standings and he’s done that with just one win, which came at Iowa four races ago.

Over his last 10 races, Mayer has one win, five Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and 10 Top 17s. He’s led laps in most of those races, and had a four-race Top 5 streak snapped last weekend at Portland.

The Top Nu Way 200 Longshot

Harrison Burton (+10000) is my longshot bet of choice and mostly because he’s fighting for the final Playoff spot. However, what I like about his chances is that unlike his cousin Jeb and other drivers below the cutoff line, Burton has three Cup races at WWTR under his belt.

While those races didn’t produce strong results, it’s an experience advantage for a driver that’s coming on strong as of late.

Over his last four races, Burton has an 8.6 average finish. While I think his race-winning chances are slim to none, a Top 5 finish at +1400 odds is candidate material for a very small flier. I do think he finishes no lower than 12^th and will lock up the last Playoff spot.

Nu Way 200 Predictions

Justin Allgaier (+260) is my pick to win this race. Sure, I could go with the hot hand and take Zilisch, but Allgaier is chasing after his teammate for the regular season title and the bonus Playoff points that comes with it.

Zilisch is already locked in as a Championship contender, but the defending Xfinity Series champ Allgaier has been forgotten. I think he reminds everyone this weekend, as to why he won the title last year.

Bet: Justin Allgaier (+260)

Nu Way 200 Top 5 Finish

• Connor Zilisch (-250)
• Justin Allgaier (-250))
• Aric Almirola (-130)
• Jesse Love (+150)
• Sheldon Creed (+175)
• Austin Hill (+175)
• Sam Mayer (+175)

Connor Zilisch is the no-brainer pick here, due to his incredible streak of wins and Top 5s. However, his odds offer no value at all.

Instead, I’m looking at Sam Mayer and his +175 odds to finish in the Top 5. As mentioned above, Mayer has four Top 5s in his last five Xfinity races which includes a win at Iowa over that span and two runner ups.

He sports 12 Top 5s in 25 races, which is just below a 50% rate. With his consistency, and momentum over the last month, I like Mayer to crack the Top 5.

Bet: Sam Mayer (+175)

Favorite NASCAR Picks Of The Week

With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week.

Recap From Last Week

Last week, we picked Hamlin to finish in the Top 5 for the Southern 500, which he came in 7th. We took Zilisch to win the Xfinity Portland race as he did. And, we jumped on the Corey Heim Truck Series championship wager while there was still some value. He went out and won the opening race of the Playoffs.

Let’s see what’s in store for this week.

Austin Cindric Top 10 Finish at WWTR

Austin Cindric boasts of an 8.3 average finish in his three WWTR Cup races. And, that includes winning the 2024 edition of the Enjoy Illinois 300. He’s never finished lower than 13th at this track. At -140 odds, he still offers value considering his recent success. And, if you toss out the Daytona debacle for most of the Cup Series field, then Cindric has an 8.5 average finish over the last three weeks.

Sam Mayer To Finish Top 5 at WWTR

While Zilisch is the man for Top 5 finishes, his -330 odds offer no value. Sam Mayer’s +175 odds offers plenty of value considering he has almost a 50% Top 5 finishing rate on the season, sits third in the Xfinity Driver standings and sports a 5.2 average finish over the last five races of the season, so far. Over that span, he has one win and two runner ups, as well.