NASCAR Picks This Week: Cup and Xfinity Series Talladega Races

NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge

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On the final weekend of April, NASCAR heads back to the superspeedways for the first time since Daytona, which was the opening weekend of the 2025 season. This weekend, both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series head to Talladega for some high-speed carnage.

The Craftsman Truck Series will be off this weekend after a thrilling race at Rockingham last Friday. It was the first NASCAR event at The Rock in 12 years.

The Xfinity Series will kick off the Talladega weekend festivities with the Ag-Pro 300 on Saturday, April 26. You can watch this race in its entirety on The CW beginning at 4pm ET.

After a week off, the Cup Series returns to action with the Jack Link’s 500 on Sunday, April 27. This Talladega race will begin at 3pm ET on FOX.

Without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this

NASCAR Picks Today

NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week

• Race: Jack Link’s 500
• Race #: 10^th of the season
• Date: April 27
• Where: Talladega Superspeedway

The Cup Series returns to action this weekend after skipping Easter Sunday last week, while the Truck and Xfinity Series competed at Rockingham.

As we return from hiatus, we see that four drivers have won eight of the nine Cup races so far: William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson.

Larson dominated in Bristol two weeks ago as he won the Cup and Xfinity races, while finishing second in the Truck Series race.

All four men sit at the top of the betting boards to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship later this year.

Will we see a different Cup Series Championship contender pick up the victory this weekend at Talladega or will we get a repeat winner this Sunday?

Top Chevrolet Driver at Talladega

• Kyle Busch (+500)
• Chase Elliott (+600)
• William Byron (+650)
• Kyle Larson (+650)
• Ross Chastain (+1000)
• Alex Bowman (+1100)

Right off the top, I’m avoiding Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain from this wager. Busch won this race in 2023, but he has nine finishes of 18^th or worse in his last 11 Talladega appearances.

Larson has never won at Talladega and has five DNFs in his last 14 appearances. Chastain won at Talladega in 2022, but has just two Top 10s in 12 starts. Plus, he has two DNFs in his last three Talladega races.

I think Alex Bowman can be a sneak Top 10 play at Talladega as he was 5^th here last year. But, I don’t see him as the best Chevy driver. I think that comes down to Chase Elliott and William Byron.

Elliott has been successful at Talladega with two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 14.6 average finish. Yet, William Byron, who has yet to win here, is having a better season than his teammate in Elliott.

Furthermore, Byron has won at Daytona the last two years and it’s just a matter of time before he wins at Talladega. With four Top 7s in a row, and the best average finish among full-time Cup drivers, I see Byron finishing as the best Chevy driver at Talladega this Sunday.

Bet: William Byron (+650)

Top Ford Driver at Talladega

• Ryan Blaney (+375)
• Joey Logano (+650)
• Brad Keselowski (+650)
• Austin Cindric (+500)
• Chris Buescher (+900)
• Josh Berry (+1200)

Let’s start by eliminating Chris Buescher and Josh Berry right off the bat. Buescher has a 19.9 average finish with just three Top 10s in 19 Talladega races. Berry has a 26.0 average finish at this track.

Despite having numerous wins, Top 5s, and Top 10s at Talladega, I’m quickly fading both Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.

Logano has just one Top 10 on the season, while scoring six straight finishes of 19^th or worse at Talladega. In fact, he has just one Top 10 in the last 11 races at this venue along with four DNFs in his last nine appearances at this track.

Keselowski has been strong at Talladega over his career even in recent years where he finished runner up in both races at this venue last year. However, Keselowski sits 31^st in the standings this season to date, and has been absolutely abysmal. He has just two Top 15s on the year and has yet to crack the Top 10. Yuck!

I like Austin Cindric better than Keselowski and Logano. Although he’s in 22^nd in the standings, Cindric has two Top 10s this year, which is more than Logano and Keselowski combined. He also has one Top 5 and two Top 10s in six Talladega appearances.

However, I am taking Ryan Blaney for this prop bet. Blaney has three wins, six Top 5s, eight Top 10sm and a 15.9 average finish in 21 Talladega starts. He won this race in 2020, was runner up in 2023’s spring event here, and has led laps in 12 of the last 13 races at this venue.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (+375)

Top Toyota Driver at Talladega

• Denny Hamlin (+375)
• Bubba Wallace (+450)
• Chase Briscoe (+450)
• Christopher Bell (+500)
• Tyler Reddick (+650)
• Ty Gibbs (+900)

Ty Gibbs has a 27.4 average finish at Talladega, so you can easily dismiss him this weekend. I would also avoid Bubba Wallace who has one win, two Top 10s, and a 20.4 average finish in 14 Talladega starts. I think he falls behind other Toyota drivers this Sunday.

Chase Briscoe has better numbers at Talladega than his JGR teammate Christopher Bell, but the latter has had a far better season to date. Yet, I would avoid both of them this weekend for this prop bet.

Tyler Reddick is the defending winner of this race and does have three Top 10s in 10 starts. However, he’s not been much of a factor this season to date.

One man who seems to be a factor each and every week is Denny Hamlin. He sits second in the standings and is in the Top 2 for wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, and average finish this year.

Furthermore, he has six Top 10s in his last 10 Talladega races including two in the last three. He’s also won twice at this venue. When you combined his past Talladega success with his torrid season of four straight Top 5s and three straight Top 2s, it’s hard to pick against him for this NASCAR prop bet.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+375)

NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week

• Race: Ag-Pro 300
• Race #: 11^th of the season
• Date: April 26
• Where: Talladega Superspeedway

There’s no rest for the weary as the Xfinity Series continues its weekly racing. Now, they turn their attention towards the superspeedway of Talladega where anything can happen in the final laps.

Sammy Smith pulled off an impressive win at Rockingham last weekend. He’s the eight different driver to win a Xfinity race this season and the sixth full-time Xfinity driver to win.

Allgaier remains at the top of the betting boards to win the Xfinity Series Championship this season. However, other contenders are closing the gap in a hurry.  

With that said, can Hill or Love repeat as winner on Saturday?  Or, will we get a ninth different winner on the season?

Ag-Pro 300 Odds

• Austin Hill (+280)
• Jesse Love (+600)
• Aric Almirola (+1100)
• Sheldon Creed (+1200)
• Justin Allgaier (+1200)
• Connor Zilisch (+1200)
• Carson Kvapil (+1600)
• Sammy Smith (+1600)
• Sam Mayer (+1800)
• Taylor Gray (+1800)
• Christian Eckes (+2000)
• Ryan Sieg (+2000)

Ag-Pro 300 Favorites

Austin Hill (+280) sits third in the driver standings, but is a huge favorite to win the Ag-Pro 300 on Saturday. Hill has two wins, five Top 5s and six Top 10s on the year so far. He won at Atlanta and Martinsville so far.

With that said, Hill has never won at Talladega before. In fact, his best result is 14^th, which he accomplished twice. Hill has a 21.5 average finish and two DNFs in six appearances. These numbers don’t inspire confidence.

Jesse Love (+600) might not be as big of a favorite as his teammate Hill, but he definitely has a strong chance of winning this Saturday. In two Talladega starts, Love won this race last year and finished 6^th in the fall event. That’s a 3.5 average finish with 28 laps led in each race.

On the season, Love sits 4^th in the standings but has one win, two Top 5s and six Top 10s. He won at Daytona, which shows that last season’s Rookie of the Year is running fast at the superspeedways.

Aric Almirola (+1100) returns to Xfinity racing this weekend. In his four appearances, Almirola has one win, three Top 5s and three Top 10s. In six Talladega appearances, Almirola has one win, one Top 5, and four Top 10s along with an 11.7 average finish. Keep an eye on the #19 car this weekend as he’s also led laps in every start this season.

Ag-Pro 300 Betting Value

Sheldon Creed (+1200) sits 10^th in the standings but offers value this week due to his solid resume at Talladega. Creed has a 9.6 average finish due to two Top 5s, three Top 10s and three straight Top 6 results in five career appearances at this track.

Justin Allgaier (+1200) leads the Xfinity series in the standings as he’s tied for first in wins, but leads in Top 5s, Top 10s and average finish.

With that said, Allgaier has been awful at Talladega in his career. He has 8 DNFs, with two in the last three and six in the last 10. Over that span, he has just one Top 10. Avoid Allgaier this weekend as he will be lucky to sniff a Top 10 finish.

Connor Zilisch (+1200) will make his Xfinity debut at Talladega this weekend. And, there’s one thing that we know about the talented rookie, that’s the fact he isn’t afraid of any track. Zilisch already has one win on the year and is playing with house money for the rest of the regular season. He could be a sleeper on Saturday, if the rook stays out of trouble.

Carson Kvapil (+1600) has just one Talladega appearance and he crashed out of it. The reason why he offers some betting value this weekend is due to his current season. Kvapil sits 5^th in the standings with three Top 5s and four Top 10s.

Sammy Smith (+1600) pulled of a stunning win last weekend in Rockingham, which bumped him to 8^th in the standings. He also won the fall Talladega race last year, which was just his third appearance at this venue. There’s some value with Smith on Saturday.

Ag-Pro 300 Longshot

Harrison Burton (+2800) is my longshot to win the Ag-Pro 300. In four Talladega starts, Burton has one Top 10 and hasn’t competed in a Xfinity race at this track since 2021. However, he’s slowly reacclimating himself with the series as Burton finished third last week in Rockingham.

It was his first Top 5 of the season and his fourth Top 10. Burton sits 12^th in the driver standings and is a fringe Playoff driver after 10 races this year.

I think if he can stay out of trouble, avoid big wrecks, then Burton might just surprise bettors this weekend.

Ag-Pro 300 Predictions

Although Hill is the betting favorite, I actually like Aric Almirola and Jesse Love far more than I do Hill. In fact, I am fading Hill this weekend despite his body of work at superspeedways.

Between Almirola and Love, I’m leaning towards the youngster upstaging the veteran to win the Ag-Pro 300 on Saturday.

As mentioned above, Love has a 3.5 average finish at Talladega in his two starts. He won this race last year and was sixth in the fall Talladega event. Furthermore, Love won at Daytona on the opening weekend of the season and is due for another victory.

At +600 odds, Love still offers solid betting value despite being the second overall odds-on favorite. You can take a flier on Almirola as well, if you believe his strong but limited run will continue.

Bet: Jesse Love (+600)