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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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NASCAR fans and bettors, the green flag is dropping on the 2026 season this weekend. That means all three of the sport’s top circuits will be in action live from the Daytona International Speedway. With the new Chase Format, and other changes, in place for the upcoming season, it’s going to be exciting to see how things unfold right out of the gates.
The Craftsman Truck Series kicks off the opening weekend of 2026, with the Fresh From Florida 250 on Friday, February 13. This race can be seen in its entirety on FS1 beginning at 7:30 pm ET.
The O’Reilly Auto Parts Series is up next, and the circuit’s debut race will take place on Valentine’s Day. So, while you are taking your romantic partner out to celebrate, maybe add the United Rentals 300 to your itinerary as it begins at 5pm ET on The CW.
On Sunday, February 15, the sport’s biggest race of the year takes place with the Daytona 500. After Duels on Thursday, some of the Cup Series’ drivers will compete in the other Series. However, the main event of the weekend will begin at 2:30 pm ET and air live on FS1 along with streaming on HBO Max.
If you miss any of this weekend’s races at Daytona International Speedway, we’ve got you covered with our weekly NASCAR results.
So, without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week. Feel free to use any of these for your NASCAR bets this weekend and don’t forget to check out our best handicappers.
NASCAR Picks Today
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: Daytona 500
- Race #: 1
- Date: February 15
- Where: Daytona International Speedway
The Cup Series debuts its new Chase Format this year, along with a scoring system that rewards wins over stages and high finishes. So, we should see right off the bat, which drivers are ready to embrace the changes.
William Byron has won the last two Daytona 500 races, but it’s his teammate Chase Elliott along with Ryan Blaney that are listed as the odds-on favorites to win this weekend’s Super Bowl of NASCAR.
For a complete betting breakdown of this weekend’s Cup Series race, check out our Daytona 500 preview. With that said, for our Cup Series picks this week, we’re not only looking at the Daytona 500 race but also some Cup Series Championship prop bets that offer value and plenty of upside this early into the season.
Daytona 500 Top 5 Finish
- Ryan Blaney (+180)
- Chase Elliott (+180)
- Joey Logano (+220)
- William Byron (+220)
- Denny Hamlin (+250)
- Austin Cindric (+275)
I say this every year, but Daytona and Talladega are the hardest tracks to predict winners and results due to the big wrecks every year. So, this year’s Daytona 500 is no different.
With that in mind, I do like our chances with Top 5 finishes more so than picking a race winner in regards to betting value.
After two straight wins and three consecutive Top 5 finishes in the Daytona 500 (2019-2021), Denny Hamlin’s numbers have fallen off a cliff. He’s crashed out of three of the last seven races at this venue. Yet, call me crazy because I like his chances of finishing in the Top 5 this weekend.
Hamlin has the most Top 5s in the Cup Series at Daytona and was a few laps shy of winning the 2025 Cup Series Championship. I believe he has vengeance on his mind and plenty of motivation to start the season strong.
Now, I am sure some of you are wondering why I’m not taking William Byron who has won the last two Daytona 500 races. Well, it’s simple, name the last driver who has won three Daytona 500s in a row.
Prior to these two wins, Byron had finishes of 34, 38, 26 and 40 in the previous four Daytona 500s. Also, in 16 DIS starts, Byron has eight DNFs which is a 50% rate of crashing out.
If you want a longshot driver to finish in the Top 5, then take Alex Bowman (+400). He was 6th in this race last year, 2nd in 2024, and 5th in 2023. Additionally, Bowman has four Top 6 finishes and six Top 16 finishes in the last seven Daytona races.
Bet: Denny Hamlin (+250)
Daytona 500 Top 10 Finish
- Ryan Blaney (-175)
- Chase Elliott (-175)
- Joey Logano (-160)
- William Byron (-160)
- Denny Hamlin (-150)
- Austin Cindric (-125)
All three drivers that I mentioned for the best Top 5 finish can also be listed in this section, as well. However, their value isn’t as appealing except for Bowman at +140. Both Byron and Hamlin have negative-odds.
Bowman makes for a longshot Top 5 pick and a strong Top 10 bet considering his six Top 16s in the last seven Daytona events.
With that said, there’s one other driver I like even more than Bowman, and that’s Bubba Wallace.
Wallace leads the Cup Series with the best average finish (14.4) at Daytona International Speedway. While he wasn’t won at this track, Wallace has six Top 10s in 17 starts at this track. Even more impressive, Wallace has eight Top 15s in the last 12 DIS races.
Last year saw the talented driver for 23XI racing crash out of both Daytona races. In 2024, he finished 5th in the Daytona 500. I see a similar result for the no.23 car this weekend.
Bet: Bubba Wallace (+130)
Number Of Lead Changes In The Daytona 500
- Over 46.5 (-140)
- Under 46.5 (+110)
Last year, we saw a record number of Next-Gen era lead changes in the Daytona 500 with 56. It surpassed the 52 mark from 2023. Outside of those two totals, there weren’t more than 41 lead changes in the last 10 Daytona 500 races.
If we’re to take the average of the last 10 Daytona 500s, then we get an average of 32.6 lead changes. With the new points system in place, and the Chase Format looming over the regular season, I see this race being more cautious than crazy.
Although we should get a few spectacular crashes, which causes more lead changes, I believe that this year’s Daytona 500 will see 46 or less lead changes. So, take the Under!
Bet: Under 46.5 (+110)
Cup Series Championship Winning Number
- Over 18.5 (-110)
- Under 18.5 (-110)
Over the last eight Championships, we’ve seen the winning number come in Under 18.5 on five occasions: Busch, Elliott, Larson (twice), and Blaney. The three that went Over, came from Joey Logano and his no.22 car.
This year, four of the Top 6 odds-on favorites are Under 18.5 with Larson, Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott. I think that’s a great group of drivers that can also excel under the Chase Format and enough of a reason for me to take the Under in this prop bet.
Bet: Under 18.5 (-110)
Cup Series Championship Winning Manufacturer
- Chevrolet (+115)
- Toyota (+140)
- Ford (+375)
Over the last 10 Cup Series championships, Chevy has four titles, Ford has four titles, and Toyota has two titles. When looking at the all-time mark, Chevy has 44 championships compared to 17 by Ford and three for Toyota.
Now, a big reason for this is that Chevy was the best car in the early days of this sport. So, if we simplify this to when Toyota joined the Cup Series in 2007, then we see Chevy at 11 titles, Ford at 5 and Toyota at 3.
Chevy got back into the winner’s circle with Larson last year, but I really like the value with Ford as a flier due to Logano and Blaney who have won three of the last four titles. However, I am taking Toyota to win it this year. There’s something about Hamlin and Bell that have me optimistic for this manufacturer in 2026.
Bet: Toyota (+140)
NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Picks This Week
- Race: United Rentals 300
- Race #: 1
- Date: February 14
- Where: Daytona International Speedway
Not only will NASCAR’s no.2 circuit follow the scoring and Playoff changes like the Cup Series, but we also get a big name change as Xfinity is no longer the title sponsor. Instead, we’re going to have to say O’Reilly Auto Parts Series when referring to this circuit.
The departure of Connor Zilisch means there are 10 races open for wins by other drivers. That should translate into parity and a more competitive balance throughout the field.
With that said, for our O’Reilly Auto Parts Series picks this week, we’re not only looking at the United Rentals 300 race on Valentine’s Day, but also some O’Reilly Auto Parts Series prop bets that offer value and upside to start off the 2026 season.
United Rentals 300 Race Winner
- Austin Hill (+400)
- Jesse Love (+600)
- Justin Allgaier (+900)
- Sammy Smith (+1200)
- Sheldon Creed (+1400)
It took most of the week before the United Rentals 300 racing odds came out, but nothing surprised me once they did. My NASCAR pick remains unchanged. If anything, I am more excited bout his odds due to the perceived value.
Last year, Jesse Love (+600) won the first race at Daytona and Zilisch won the second one. However, if we’re looking at one driver with a proven resume at this venue, and super speedways in general, then you must look at Austin Hill (+400) as your race winner.
In nine races at this venue, Hill has three wins. A rear issue to his car stopped Hill from winning a fourth straight Daytona opener. He had led 56 of the first 82 laps up to that point and was clearly the best car on the track.
His teammate Love went on to win the race and the Championship last year. And, he’s definitely a contender for the win this weekend, as well. Love is one of the only other drivers that can really contend with Hill at these speedways.
With that said, I like for Hill to bounce back from last year’s debacle to win on Saturday.
Bet: Austin Hill (NA)
United Rentals 300 Top 5 Finish
The Top 5 finish prop bet is a great way to hedge our picks this weekend. And, it’s also a fantastic option to ride along with the Richard Childress Racing teammates of Hill and Jesse Love.
So, we took Hill to win the race, which means we’re going with Love to finish in the Top 5. And, unlike the Cup Series where we didn’t get any value for a Top 5 finish with the pre-race favorites, the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series pre-race favorites are providing us with plenty of betting value for this prop bet.
Jesse Love is one of the best super speedway drivers in the Series. He won this race last year after his teammate Hill went out with car issues. Love followed that up with a 4th in the second Daytona race of the season. He also led laps in both DIS events last year.
Those finishes give me confidence in Love this weekend as the reigning O’Reilly Auto Parts Series champion comes into the season’s opening weekend with a ton of confidence and produces a Top 5 result.
Bet: Jesse Love (+100)
United Rentals 300 Head-To-Head Matchup
- Carson Kvapil (-130)
- Taylor Gray (+102)
Last year, both of these drivers competed in their first full-time season for the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. And, each driver is considered a Playoff contender this year, along with possibly rising up to challenge for the championship.
In 2025, Taylor Gray finished 5th in this opening Daytona race but ended up 30th in the second one. Carson Kvapil finished 4th in this race and 10th in the second DIS event. That 7.0 average finish is the reason why we like Kvapil this weekend in a head-to-head matchup with Gray.
Take Kvapil and his JR Motorsports car to edge out Gray in what should be a tight battle throughout the United Rentals 300 rae.
Bet: Carson Kvapil (-130)
Austin Hill Season Win Total
- Over 3.5 (-150)
- Under 3.5 (+120)
Well, considering I just picked Austin Hill to win this weekend’s Daytona race, I think he easily eclipses the 3.5 win total this year.
Over the last three years as a full-time driver in this Series, Hill has average four wins each season. In fact, over the last four years, Hill has averaged 3.5 wins each year. He’s also finished in the Top 6 for the Championship Standings every year over that span.
I believe that Hill is a real threat to win the O’Reilly Series Championship this year and it starts by picking up at least four victories in 2026.
Bet: Over 3.5 (-150)
Justin Allgaier Season Win Total
- Over 3.5 (-165)
- Under 3.5 (+125)
Justin Allgaier is one year removed from winning his first O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship. And, despite finishing third last year, Allgaier still tallied three wins on the year.
In fact, he’s finished in the Top 3 for the standings eight times in his career. Allgaier has three straight Top 3 finishes on the year and they’re due to winning races along with setting the benchmark for consistency.
Over the last four years, Allgaier has averaged 3 wins each season. He also had a handful of Top 3 finishes where he failed to get the win. With his former teammate Zilisch out of the way, I see Allgaier getting back to at least four wins. Take the Over!
Bet: Over 3.5 (-165)
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Picks This Week
- Race: Fresh From Florida 250
- Race #: 1
- Date: February 13
- Where: Daytona International Speedway
Just like with the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, the Craftsman Truck Series will also be without their top driver from 2025, as Truck champion Corey Heim left the Series only to not have a full-time ride in any circuit. This is clearly an issue with NASCAR that the sport needs to fix as Heim had one of the greatest seasons that I have ever seen in any NASCAR Series.
As for the rest of the Truck Series field, there will be 12 wins up for grabs now that Heim isn’t here. And, that starts with this weekend’s Daytona race.
So, for our Craftsman Truck Series picks of the week, we’re looking at the winner of the Fresh From Florida 250 along with a few driver win totals for the season.
Fresh From Florida 250 Race Winner
- Layne Riggs (+1000)
- Chandler Smith (+1000)
- Ty Majeski (+1200)
- Michael McDowell (+1200)
- Carson Hocevar (+1200)
- Grant Enfinger (+1200)
Nothing like waiting until the last minute before the sportsbooks released their Fresh From Florida 250 odds. And, as expected, we have a pack of drivers stacked up at the top of the boards with odds ranging from +1000 to +1200.
As mentioned above, Corey Heim won 12 of the 25 races on the season. It was truly remarkable. With Heim gone, that means nearly 50% of the races are now up for grabs within the Truck Series field.
Last year, Heim won this Daytona race by leading the final laps and holding off Giovanni Ruggiero and Ty Majeski.
Speaking of the latter, Majeski (+1200) left Daytona with the second most points on the day despite not leading a lap. It was a microcosm of his 2025 season overall.
Majeski has never won at Daytona in his career. Not even in his 2024 Championship winning season. Yet, he has one Top 5 and three Top 10s in five races at this venue. Majeski has four straight Top 15 finishes and a 7.7 average finish over that span.
I think this is the year that Majeski gets his first Daytona checkered flag in the Truck Series and it gets him off to a fantastic start in his quest to contend for another Championship this season.
Bet: Ty Majeski (+1200)
Fresh From Florida 250 Top 5 Finish
- Layne Riggs (+180)
- Chandler Smith (+180)
- Ty Majeski (+220)
- Michael McDowell (+220)
- Carson Hocevar (+220)
- Grant Enfinger (+220)
Among the favorites, Grant Enfinger (+220) is the only driver to have won a Truck race at Daytona. While Michael McDowell (+220) won the Daytona 500 in 2021, he’s never finished in the Top 10 for a Truck Series race. Last year, he was 26th in his first Daytona appearance for this Series.
Enfinger not only won this race in 2020, but he has four Top 5s and five Top 10s in 11 Daytona Truck Series starts. He also has an 11.2 average finish with just one DNF in his 13 years as a Truck Series competitor.
Enfinger was 4th in this race last year, along with a 5th in 2023. So, while not winning since 2020, the veteran is still putting up solid results at Daytona. If you add his 2024 result (17th), then Enfinger is still scoring an 8.6 average finish over the last three years. There aren’t many drivers putting up better stats than that, especially at such a wild venue.
Bet: Grant Enfinger (+220)
Layne Riggs Season Win Total
- Over 3.5 (-135)
- Under 3.5 (+105)
In 25 starts last year, Layne Riggs finished with three wins which was the second highest total in the Truck Series. Additionally, he had six other finishes of second or third that could easily translate into wins this year without Heim dominating the field.
Over his last two seasons as a full-time Truck Series driver, Riggs has 2.5 wins, 10 Top 5s, and 13 Top 10s per year. Keep in mind, he doesn’t even turn 24 until June. So, Riggs is clearly on an upward trajectory and it’s safe to say that he could be the best driver in the Truck Series this year.
Whether you agree with that statement or not, Riggs winning at least four races should be a lock. Nine Top 3 finishes in 25 starts is a great foundation for more wins in 2026.
Bet: Over 3.5 (-135)
Ty Majeski Season Win Total
- Over 2.5 (+100)
- Under 2.5 (-130)
Ty Majeski is my pick to win at Daytona on February 13. So, that means he only needs two more wins to go Over this Total. In 2024, when Majeski won the Championship, he posted three victories. In 2022, he also had two wins.
I won’t skip the fact that Majeski had zero wins last year. However, he still finished second on the season due to his veteran experience and high-level consistency on the track.
I believe those will translate into three wins this year, especially without Heim Time!
Bet: Over 2.5 wins (+100)
Chandler Smith Season Win Total
- Over 1.5 (-145)
- Under 1.5 (+115)
I’m really surprised by this win Total via the sportsbooks. Chandler Smith won two races last year and posted 16 Top 10s in 25 races. He had the third most victories and Top 10s in the field.
Smith has seven wins in his three full-time Truck Series seasons (2021-22, 2025). He also posted two wins in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series in 2024. So, over the last four years, across two Series, Smith averaged at least two victories each season.
I love the Over for Smith this season as he’s a contender for the Championship and should get at least two victories for a 5th straight year in NASCAR.
Bet: Over 1.5 (-145)
Best NASCAR Picks Of The Week
With all of the racing action going on this weekend, and the plethora of NASCAR picks to choose from, I want to highlight some wagers that are my favorite NASCAR picks of the week.
Bubba Wallace Top 10 Finish (+130)
In 17 DIS starts, Wallace has five Top 5s and six Top 10s. He also leads the Cup Series with a 14.4 average finish. In the 11 Daytona races prior to last year, Wallace had nine Top 15s and five Top 10s. He was 5th in the Daytona 500 for 2024, and was runner up in 2022. I love his chances to crack the Top 10 at Daytona on Sunday, February 15.onship.
Jesse Love Top 5 Finish (+100)
Not only is Jesse Love the defending O’Reilly Auto Parts Series champion, but he’s also the defending winner of this race. Additionally, he finished 4th in the second Daytona event last year. These are strong numbers for one of the top drivers in the Series. And, while I like his teammate Hill to win this race, I do find Love to provide us with plenty of value for this NASCAR prop bet.
