If you were looking at this a few weeks ago, you wouldn’t have thought that coming into this Monday night game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. And that those two losses they suffered would come at the hands of quarterbacks who didn’t even begin the season as a starter for their respective teams.
Also, a quick note: Antonio Brown is out of this game. He tested positive for COVID-19 and as it turns out, he had a fake vaccination card, which was procured for him by his live-in chef. Would it be politically incorrect to laugh about that?
Oh, and here’s an unexplainable trend – the New York Giants have actually covered 12 of their last 14 as a road underdog.
Read our Giants vs. Buccaneers preview for week 11.
Leonard Fournette Props Picks for Week 11
LEONARD FOURNETTE OVER 95.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 95.5 Yards -115 / Under 95.5 Yards -115
The Bucs have the lowest run play percentage of any team in the NFL. And they don’t vary all that much from about 33%. So the idea that they’ll go run-heavy is far-fetched, even though the Giants have not been a stellar team at stopping it (4.5 ypc).
Yet things happen when Fournette is able to move ahead on the ground. the over-under for rushing yards is 64.5, and before Tampa Bay lost these last two games, they went on a four-game win streak in which Fournette exceeded that total every week. When they went to him less, they lost.
That would seem simple, except for the aforementioned pass-run tendency. But you know, Tom Brady hasn’t hesitated to seek out Fournette is the passing game. He’s been targeted 34 times in the last six games. So we can factor in his potential participation in that part of it.
Daniel Jones Props Picks for Week 11
DANIEL JONES OVER 243.5 PASSING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 243.5 Yards -115 / Under 243.5 Yards -115
Jones has not had the good fortune of having all his offensive weapons available at the same time. This week is no exception, as Sterling Shepard is out. Saquon Barkley is officially listed as questionable. And things would change for the Giants if he were able to play.
Of course, there is the fact that the Buccaneers are second-best in the NFL in stopping the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per attempt. Opponents have run the ball 33.9% of the time against Tampa Bay, and that is the lowest percentage in the league. So let’s expect Jones to go airborne against a secondary that has gone through its share of problems.
Kadarius Toney Props Picks for Week 11
KADARIUS TONEY UNDER 42.5 RECEIVING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 42.5 Yards -115 / Under 42.5 Yards -115
Based on ability and upside, Toney would be the first guy I’d look to when thinking about receivers who could be game-changers. But that hasn’t played out on a consistent basis. In two and a quarter games (back-to-back contests, then a quarter where he got hurt against the Rams), he had 303 yards and was targeted 25 times. In all the other games, he’s had a total of 49 yards on eleven targets.
It’s not that he’s just another first-round draft bust. But if I was the opposing defensive coordinator, I would make sure I kept Toney off the board before anyone else.
Mike Evans Props Picks for Week 11
MIKE EVANS TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
MNF Props Odds: -110 to Score TD
He’s caught 41 passes, nine of which have gone for touchdowns. That’s a pretty high percentage (21.9%) – easily the highest of his career, and higher than any of the other leading touchdown-scorers in the NFL (save for Hunter Henry).
Learn how to bet on NFL touchdown props.
Tom Brady Props Picks for Week 11
TOM BRADY OVER 0.5 RUSHING YARDS
MNF Props Odds: Over 0.5 Yards -115 / Under 0.5 Yards -115
For SEO purposes, it’s probably best that we include a Tom Brady prop. But seriously, we find some value here.
In seven of these nine games, Brady has had at least one rushing yard. That includes quarterback sneaks. There are no half-yards in the NFL; any forward progress counts as a yard.
And Brady has averaged 2.7 yards on his 15 carries. That might be better than the Giants’ average in this game.
Come on, give a 44-year-old some credit!
Read our NFL player props betting guide.
