UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates Odds and Picks

After a week away from UFC action, I am personally ready for the fireworks to be back. UFC 314 was an embarrassment of riches for MMA fans and bettors alike, and by default UFC on ESPN 66 will pale in comparison.

While it is a letdown if you measure it up to that murderer’s row of epic showdowns, it’s still a solid card in its own right, with a headliner between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates taking center stage.

This card was supposed to feature Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr., but we still get a terrific main event, along with several other compelling bouts. If you’re here for UFC picks for each fight, I’ve got you covered, along with the latest odds and analysis.

Where To Watch UFC on ESPN 66?

If you want to watch UFC on ESPN 66 live, tune into ESPN or ESPN+ at 5:00 pm EST this weekend. The main card will air on ESPN+ and ESPN2, starting at 8:00 pm EST.

When Is UFC on ESPN 66?

The next big MMA event arrives this Saturday, April 26th, 2025.

Where Is UFC on ESPN 66?

Want to attend the bouts in person? Head to Missouri. This underrated UFC card rolls out at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City this weekend.

UFC UFC on ESPN 66 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN 66 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

UFC on ESPN 66 is going to be a banger, as it will get some big names like Michel Pereira, Giga Chikadze, and Anthony Smith; not to mention a pretty good main event.

The pricing looks pretty good up top, as the main event is a virtual toss-up, and several other bouts on the main card offer intriguing value. You’re getting nice bang for your buck in the last fight of the night no matter which way you lean, while three other bouts are very nicely priced.

Then the two most lopsided events paint big names such as Smith and Muniz to be obscene underdogs. I don’t know if they’re really appealing bets, but you just never know in mixed martial arts.

The point? UFC on ESPN 66 is set up to be a ton of fun. You can roll with my top picks for each fight, or you can get extra advice via the best handicappers available online.

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UFC on ESPN 66 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC on ESPN 66 starts at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN and ESPN+.

Ian Machado Garry (-125) vs. Carlos Prates (+105)

This is an interesting fight, as you could make a case for either of these guys being close to a title shot. Machado Garry may have the more convincing case, as he has just one loss (15-1) so far and is 8-1 under the UFC banner.

Garry’s lone loss came via Decision last December to Shavkat Rakhmonov, which certainly isn’t cause for hanging one’s head. He enters this one as the betting favorite, and rightfully so, as he’s never been finished, is four years younger than his opponent, and grades out as the more accurate and more impactful striker.

Carlos Prates is no slouch. The 31-year old is incredibly explosive (16 career KOs), and he’s finished each of his last 10 opponents. In fact, he hasn’t lost since 2019.

Ultimately, I will side with the hotter fighter. Prates hasn’t lost in forever and also has a 4.5-inch reach advantage. Given his explosive nature, that should give him a considerable boost.

Bet: Carlos Prates (+105)

Zhang Mingyang (-525) vs. Anthony Smith (+400)

Anthony Smith (38-21) has had a great career. Lionheart has an insane 35 finishes to his name, and he’s pushing for 40 wins before he retires. His recent track record and the early UFC on ESPN 66 betting odds suggest that it won’t be easy to get a win this weekend, though.

Smith is just 2-5 over his last seven fights, and while he historically can end fights in a hurry, he’s stopped someone early just one time during that seven-fight stretch. He’s also got a remarkably soft chin, as he’s eaten 12 knockout losses throughout his career, and has also been submitted four times.

The math sides with Zhang Mingyang (18-6), who is 10 years younger, grades out as the superior striker, and hasn’t had a single victory that didn’t end early. He has more proven finishing ability recently and he has been in far better form with zero losses since 2020.

Even better? Mingyang has looked explosive and dominant in each of his first three UFC bouts – all KO wins. I would bet on another knockout win here.

Bet: Zhang Mingyang (-525)

Michel Pereira (-150) vs. Abus Magomedov (+130)

I’m not chasing value with Anthony Smith at UFC on ESPN 66, but I’d consider doing it with Abus Magomedov. I feel like basically every guy with the last name Magomedov is in play these days, but Abus admittedly isn’t quite as reliable.

That said, Magomedov (27-6-1) could be a solid value bet. He’s 5-2 over his last two bouts, with an impressive submission win coming from his last fight against Bruno Ferreira. He’s the older fights between these two guys, but he sports a massive five-inch reach edge and possesses strong finishing ability.

Ditto for Pereira, who has 11 KOs and nine submissions to his name. The 31-year old is the more impactful striker, but he’s not as effective taking the fight to the ground, and he’s no stranger to being bested quickly (3 losses by stoppage). We saw that firsthand in his last fight, which was a rough TKO loss to Anthony Hernandez.

Of course, Pereira was red hot prior to that defeat, as he’d won seven fights in a row and most of them were against explosive studs like Ihor Potieria and others. 

This is honestly one of the toughest fights to call for this weekend’s card. Ultimately, I am siding with Abus due to the imposing edge in reach. That should allow him to keep Pereira at bay and give him a shot to dictate the pace of this fight.

Bet: Abus Magomedov (+130)

David Onama (-172) vs. Giga Chikadze (+147)

This is a fight of contrasting styles, as David Onama (13-2) is a lethal striker and Giga Chikadze is more technically skilled and offers superior defense. The early odds favor Onama, who has never been finished and has just two Decision defeats on his ledger.

Obama is incredibly explosive, as 11 of his 13 wins have come via stoppage, while he’s also in stellar form with three straight victories and a 5-1 mark over his last six bouts. With no distinct height or reach edge, I tend to favor Onama and think he has an excellent chance of ending this one early with his fists.

Giga Chikadze is a seasoned pro, but he is now 36 years of age and could be headed in the wrong direction after going 1-2 over his last three fights. Giga has never been finished, of course, while losses against sluggers such as Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar are nothing to be ashamed of.

That said, Obama’s defense and striking ability give him the edge. I wouldn’t go as far as guaranteeing Giga’s first ever KO loss, but I expect Onama to be able to inflict a ton of damage and at the very worst win by points.

Bet: David Onama (-175)

Randy Brown (-230) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+195)

One sizable betting favorite I don’t mind rolling with is Randy Brown (19-6), as he has the numbers edge when he takes on an aging Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1).

Brown is six years younger and has a huge 4.5-inch reach advantage in this one. He will also tower over his opponent by four inches and brings much-needed versatility and solid finishing ability to the table. He did lose to Bryant Battle via Decision last time out, but had won three in a row before that.

Dalby is 4-1 over his last five bouts, but at 40 he is undeniably slowing down. A ton of his fights have gone the distance throughout his lengthy career, while he has just one win by early stoppage since 2019.

Dalby’s defense and toughness are impossible to ignore, of course. He’s never been finished and he knows how to inflict and absorb damage. I do think Brown will win, but I highly doubt this is where Dalby’s first career KO comes from.

Bet: Randy Brown (-230)

Ikram Aliskerov (-655) vs. Andre Muniz (+480)

The last fight of the UFC on ESPN 66 main card is a lopsided one, as Andre Muniz (24-6) is expected to lose in convincing fashion. He’s certainly exiting his prime at age 35, while he’s just 1-2 over his last three fights and both of his losses were by stoppage.

Muniz is a talented fighter with a whopping 15 submissions to his name, but he’s taking on an extremely skilled and dominant foe in Ikram Aliskerov (15-2). The Russian has less experience, but so far he’s proven to be just as skilled and just as versatile.

Ikram can win with his fists or on the mat, and he has yet to be submitted. Considering that is likely Muniz’s best path to an upset, I don’t really like his chances. Ikram is younger, more active, and more aggressive.

Muniz’s experience could allow him to hang tight in this one, but I expect Aliskerov to bounce back from an understandable loss to Robert Whittaker. I just wouldn’t bet on this rich moneyline.

Bet: Ikram Aliskerov (-655)

UFC on ESPN 66 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN 66 odds for the Preliminary Card.

While the UFC on ESPN 66 main card looks pretty great, the Prelims aren’t far behind it. We have some pretty big names like Matt Schnell and John Castaneda entering the Octagon, while most of these bouts are reasonably priced.

Seriously, just one fight has anyone favored beyond even -285, which probably tells us it could be tough to get a lot of these right. That said, you can use my UFC on ESPN 66 predictions above, or read on for a bit more analysis.

UFC on ESPN 66 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC on ESPN 66 Prelims will roll out at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Matt Schnell (-255) vs. Jimmy Flick (+215)

It’s a war of attrition when Matt Schnell (16-9) and Jimmy Flick (17-8) face off, as these guys are both aging and have not been in great form.

Schnell has nine career submissions to his name, but that explains his only realistic path to victory. He has not looked great, as he got submitted by Cody Durden back in September and hasn’t won a fight since 2022.

The story is very much the same with Flick. He offers zero KO ability and has been KO’d six times himself. He is the bigger threat on the mat (15 submissions), but it’s not just due to his offense, as he has shockingly never tapped out in his entire MMA career.

Flick’s recent form isn’t any better. He lost to Nathan Maness last June, and is just 1-3 over his last four bouts. That said, this fight is almost definitely going to the floor, and when it does, Flick will have the edge.

Bet: Jimmy Flick (+215)

Chris Gutierrez (-140) vs. John Castaneda (+120)

I feel like John Castaneda has been on every fight card of late, and his bouts keep getting cancelled. The 33-year old has not fought since last June, but we can project him to finally enter the Octagon again as he prepares to battle Chris Gutierrez.

The odds don’t favor Castaneda, but he has a four-inch reach advantage in a fight where he is going to be far more aggressive with takedowns and should be able to hang in terms of striking. Gutierrez definitely packs some serious punch (9 KOs), but he’s not nearly as versatile as Castaneda.

I do respect the resume for Gutierrez. His only two losses in the last six years have come against Pedro Munhoz and Yadong Song – both Decisions – and Castaneda isn’t quite as nasty as them with the fists.

This one is close, but I lean Castaneda due to his versatility and reach advantage.

Bet: John Castaneda (+120)

Da’Mon Blackshear (-400) vs. Alatengheili (+330)

Next up we have a huge favorite in Da’Mon Blackshear (16-7-1), who is expected to take out Alataneheili (17-9-2). Blackshear has a crazy six-inch reach edge, is the far more dangerous striker, and is on par with his opponent in terms of takedown aggressiveness.

Blackshear is also three years younger and is in strong form, riding consecutive submission wins. He is not a big threat with his fists, but he can take this fight to the mat with ease, and he has the clear edge if it gets there.

Alatengheili is 3-1 over his last four fights and has shown an ability to dominate on the ground, but his path to winning runs into Blackshear’s wheelhouse. Because of that, Blackshear feels like an easy call.

Bet: Da’Mon Blackshear (-400)

Malcolm Wellmaker (-115) vs. Cameron Saaiman (-105)

The undefeated Malcolm Wellmaker (8-0) will put his unblemished record on the line this week, as he prepares to battle Cameron Saaiman (9-2). These are two talented young pups, but Wellmaker is the narrowest of favorites due to superior striking numbers.

He’s also never lost and is a lethal striker. He only has four KOs in eight wins, but he’s knocked out three of his last four opponents, so perhaps he is heating up. He is also capable on the mat (two submissions), and he has the reach and height advantage in this one.

Saaiman got off to a nice 9-0 start, but he’s dropped his last two bouts, with one being a rough TKO loss by the hands of Payton Talbott last March. He’s been away from the game for quite a while now, but the 24-year old has nice finishing ability and could easily end up bouncing back with a knockout.

That said, Wellmaker has the reach edge, is just as explosive, and has yet to lose. I don’t see much reason to bet against him yet and you’re getting awesome value with him.

Bet: Malcolm Wellmaker (-115)

Roberto Romero (-114) vs. Timmy Cuamba (-106)

This is another bout with tight odds, as Roberto Romero (8-4-1) hopes to hold off Timmy Cuamba (8-3). These guys have not made big names for themselves to this point, but at 25 and 26 respectively, there is still time.

Romero is the tentative favorite to win, but he’s been shaky lately with a 1-2 mark over his last three fights. In his defense, he’s only been finished once and is a fairly versatile threat, however.

Cuamba has a slightly better record and is barely the underdog here. He has four KOs to his name, but he definitely loses some edge if this fight goes to the ground. He’s also in terrible form with losses in each of his last two fights.

This one is very close, but I lean toward Romero due to superior versatility.

Bet: Roberto Romero (-114)

Joselyne Edwards (-285) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+245)

We get a female-led fight here, with Joselyne Edwards (14-6) being a big favorite to defeat Chelsea Chandler (6-3). Chandler is five years older, has less experience, and grades out as the weaker striker and takedown artist.

Across the board, this is Edwards’ fight to lose. She also has a two-inch reach advantage and has never been knocked out. She did struggle when she upped the competition in recent defeats to Ailin Perez and Nora Cornolle, but this feels like a ‘get back on track’ bout.

Bet: Joselyne Edwards (-285)

Evan Elder (-250) vs. Gauge Young (+210)

The last fight on the UFC on ESPN 66 card has Evan Elder (0-2) as a clear favorite as he goes up against Gauge Young (9-2). They sport identical records, while neither fighter is even 30 years old yet.

Elder is the older fighter, but he does have a two-inch reach advantage and grades out as the more impactful striker. The Phenom has four KOs to his name, although he did get TKO’d by Nazim Sadykhov in February of 2023.

Young has an awesome first name, and he brings solid finishing ability (6 KOs) to the table. He has not faced stiff competition to this point, though, and he will be making his UFC debut. Elder is 2-0 so far in the UFC and is the more versatile fighter, which gives him the slight edge.

I don’t exactly agree with the pricing gap, but I do think Elder is a good bet to get the job done.

Bet: Evan Elder (-250)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Carlos Prates to Win (+105)
• Zhang Mingyang to Win by KO
• Malcolm Wellmaker (-115)

These guys all offer killer value. Wellmaker has a clear edge in his bout and feels way too cheap at -115. He does not have an easy opponent to get through, but I think he should have better odds and is a really good bet to not just get a win, but should get a KO.

Mingyang isn’t someone I am chasing down for a ML bet, but I like his chances to get a KO as well. I don’t have the odds for a Mingyang knockout win, but it’s a wager I’d be searching for.

Prates offers a nice price as the main event underdog. I think he has the edge in his fight, as he’s super tough to take out, has nice finishing ability, and also has a big reach advantage.

I’d roll with these three UFC on ESPN 66 picks before any others, but I stand by all of my predictions for this weekend’s card.

UFC on ESPN 66 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: