2025 NASCAR Texas Motor Speedway Wurth 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, May 4, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the Wurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY. This race marks the 11^th of the regular season and the second trip to Texas this season so far.

The first trip to Texas was for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA in March. That road course event was won by Christopher Bell.

The Cup Series was at Talladega last weekend for the Jack Link’s 500, which was won by Austin Cindric. He joins Josh Berry as the two underdogs to win a race this season and virtually lock themselves into a Playoff spot.

This week, Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron and Kyle Larson sit on top of the betting boards as the odds-on favorites to win the Texas NASCAR race. Joining them in the Top 5 favorites are Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Texas odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Wurth 400 predictions for this weekend’s Texas NASCAR Cup Series race.

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Wurth 400 Race Profile

Since 1997, NASCAR’s Cup Series has held a race at the Texas Motor Speedway. The asphalt track itself is a quad oval with the first two turns featuring 20 degrees in banking, the final two turns at 24 degrees in banking, straights of 5 degrees in banking, and a lap distance of 1.5 miles.  

Sunday’s Wurth 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 85 laps
• Final Stage: 127 laps

Sunday’s Wurth 400 will air live on FS1 and begin at 3:30pm ET.

Previous Wurth 400 Winners

Jimmie Johnson holds the record for the most wins in this race with five, which includes winning four straight races from 2012 to 2015. As of this writing, no other active driver has won more than once in this race.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Chase Elliott
• 2023: William Byron
• 2022: Tyler Reddick
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Kyle Busch
• 2019: Kevin Harvick
• 2018: Kevin Harvick
• 2017: Kevin Harvick
• 2016: Carl Edwards
• 2015: Joey Logano

Hendrick Motorsports holds the record for most wins of this race at eight. They’ve won the last two years in a row and three of the last four. Chevrolet has 11 victories in this race. Ford is a distant second with five.

Wurth 400 Odds

Check out the latest Wurth 400 odds:

Two Hendrick Motorsports drivers, William Byron and Kyle Larson, sit on top of the betting boards. They’re followed by Reddick, Hamlin, Blaney and Bell. All four drivers are within a few hundred odds of Byron’s +400 line. The best handicappers are split on who they think will win this race. Keep reading to see how I view this Texas NASCAR race playing out.

Wurth 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Wurth 400:

William Byron +400         

• Driver Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 7

Another upcoming race on the docket and another week of William Byron sitting on top of the Driver Standings. Byron finished 3^rd at Talladega last week and even led 10 laps on the day. It was his third consecutive Top 6 finish.

At Texas Motor Speedway (TMS), Byron has one win, three Top 5s, six Top 10s, and an 11.2 average finish in 10 starts. He has the third best average finish at this track and won the race two years ago. He also has three Top 3s in his last four appearances and a Top 7 finish in all four of those races.

I think Byron is rightfully listed as the odds-on favorite for this race. His last four appearances have proven that the #24 car is one of the best at TMS and that should continue this weekend in the Wurth 400.

Kyle Larson +500

• Driver Standings: 2
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 7

If there’s one driver that can give Byron a run for the checkered flag this weekend, it’s his teammate Kyle Larson. The #5 car sits second in the driver standings just behind Byron. He’s also tied with Byron for the most Top 10s (7) in the field this season so far.

Yet, Larson has more wins and also leads the field in Stage Wins (5), Laps Led (506) and is tied for most Top 5s (6). He edged out Byron last weekend at Talladega to finish 2^nd overall. It’s his second straight Top 2 result as Larson won the Food City 500 in Bristol on April 20.

Like his teammate Byron, Larson has won at Texas in the past. He took the checkered flag in 2021. However, he only has two Top 10s in the last six TMS races. Additionally, Larson has an 18.8 average finish with five DNFs that includes four in his last nine races at this track.

Larson certainly has the potential to win on Sunday, but his recent trends at TMS have me thinking he’s a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling.

Tyler Reddick +700           

• Driver Standings: 6
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

Tyler Reddick is another driver that can challenge Byron this weekend. He won this race in 2022, and was 4^th last year. He’s also second in the field with a 9.3 average finish. Reddick has one win, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s in six TMS appearances.

On the season, Reddick has yet to make a mark on a race. He came close at Darlington last month when he led 42 laps and finished 4^th. Unfortunately, he scored a 16.0 average finish over the last two races.

This could be the weekend that Reddick finally challenges for a checkered flag. He was a breakout driver last year, but has yet to really make his mark on this season so far. And, we’re about 1/3^rd of the way through. I think #45 car will be in the Top 10 for most of the day and has a race-winning ceiling.

Denny Hamlin +900

• Driver Standings: 3
• Win: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6

After a remarkable run of two wins, three Top 2d, and four Top 5s in a row, Denny Hamlin came back down to reality and finished 21^st at Talladega last weekend. Yet, he still sits third in the driver standings and is tied for second in wins, Top 5s, and Top 10s.

In 34 TMS starts, Hamlin has three wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s, and a 13.8 average finish. Over the last five races at this track, Hamlin has one Top 5, three Top 10s and four Top 11s. He last won at TMS in 2019. Even more impressive is that the #11 car has just one DNF in all of those starts.

I like Hamlin to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling.

Ryan Blaney +900 

• Driver Standings: 8
• Win: 0
• Top 5:3
• Top 10: 4

Ryan Blaney enters this weekend’s race sitting 8^th in the standings after falling two spots due to a DNF at Talladega last weekend. The #12 car crashed out of the race, and tallied his 4^th DNF on the year. That’s the same number as his Top 10 results.

Blaney had two consecutive Top 5 finishes before last weekend’s result. And yet, it’s the third time that he’s finished 35^th or worse on the season.

His numbers don’t get better at Texas either. In 16 starts, Blaney has no wins, four Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 17.4 average finish with four DNFs. He crashed out of this race in 2023, and was 33^rd last year. Prior to that, Blaney had a run of five consecutive Top 8 results.

With the way Blaney has been running this year, he’s going to need a late-Summer victory to get into the Playoffs. I don’t see the #12 car challenging for a victory on Sunday. He will be lucky to finish in the Top 10. Avoid Blaney and his overvalued odds this weekend.

Christopher Bell +900

• Driver Standings: 5
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6

Christopher Bell also crashed out of Talladega last weekend and it cost him two spots in the standings as he now sits 5^th overall. Yet, Bell leads the Cup Series with three wins and is tied for the second most Top 5s and Top 10s.

At TMS, Bell has three Top 5s and three Top 10s in six starts. He also has a 13.7 average finish and one DNF over that span as well. Last year, he was 17^th in this race but 4^th in 2023.

I think Bell can crack the Top 10 this weekend. He had three consecutive Top 8 finishes on the year until last weekend at Talladega.

The Best Wurth 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Wurth 400 based on their previous success at Texas Motor Speedway:

Chase Elliott +1800

• Driver Standings: 4
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 6

Chase Elliott is the forgotten man and Hendrick Motorsports right now. He sits well behind his teammates of Byron and Larson, but is still performing better than Alex Bowman. And, yet, nobody is talking about the #9 car.

Elliott finished 5^th at Talladega last weekend, which was his third Top 8 finish in the last four races. He’s never finished outside of the Top 20 so far this year, and has the third best average finish (10.9) among the field.

At TMS, Elliott has one win, three Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 12.2 average finish which is the 4^th best among full time Cup drivers. He won this race last year, and has three Top 11 finishes in the last four races.

I think Elliott can be a Top 10 driver this weekend with a Top 5 ceiling. Unfortunately, I don’t see the #9 car winning the race.

Kyle Busch +2200

• Driver Standings: 16
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 4

Kyle Busch has the same average finish at TMS as Elliott (12.2). Yet, he’s accomplished that in 34 starts along with four wins, 14 Top 5s, and 19 Top 10s. Unfortunately, Busch has two DNFs in his last three appearances. Other than those DNFs, he has one win, two Top 5s, and six Top 10s in the last eight races at this track.

For the season, Busch sits 16^th and has just one Top 10 in his last five races this year. However, Busch has shown more success so far with one Top 5s and four Top 10s than he did last season at this point.

Busch’s value is with his Top 10 odds (+130). I believe he can crack the Top 10 this weekend if he can stay out of trouble.

The Top Wurth 400 Longshot

Erik Jones (+8000) is my longshot choice this weekend. He has three Top 5s and seven Top 10s in 13 TMS starts. His 12.3 average finish is 6^th best and just 0.1 behind Elliott and Busch. His season has been subpar at best so far, which is why he’s such a longshot.

Yet, with a 53.8% Top 10 finishing rate at Texas, I also like his longshot Top 10 odds (+400). This could be worthy of a flier for the risktakers out there.

Texas NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions

My Top 5 drivers this weekend are Byron, Larson, Reddick, Hamlin, and Bell, Elliott or Chase Briscoe.

I haven’t talked much about Briscoe, but he leads the field with a 9.0 average finish at Texas. In four TMS starts, he has one Top 5, three Top 10s, and never finished worse than 15^th. He also has three Top 10s and four Top 15s in the last five races this season.

Anyone of my Top 5 drivers can win this weekend, but we need to wither this list down to our Texas NASCAR bet.

Until Briscoe, Elliott or Reddick win this season, I have a hard time putting confidence or money on them to take the checkered flag. Yet, I like all three to be Top 10 drivers with Top 5 ceilings.

I think this race comes down to Bell, Hamlin, Byron, and Larson. The JGR drivers of Bell and Hamlin have solid numbers at this track, but neither have won here since 2019. In Bell’s case, he’s never won at Texas.

I believe the checkered flag will be won by a Hendrick Motorsports driver. Last weekend, I took William Byron to win at Talladega and he finished third. I have a hard time ignoring his success at this track. He won in 2023, was third last year, and has four straight Top 7 results. I’m taking the #24 car to enter victory lane on Sunday and cement himself as a legitimate contender for the NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Bet: William Byron (+400)

Texas NASCAR Wurth 400 Prop Bets

The following Wurth 400 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Texas

With this prop bet, we’re getting even money on two of the pre-race favorites. These JGR drivers are highly capable of winning on Sunday, but I have them getting edged out by Hendrick Motorsports.

Bell has three Top 5s in six starts and Hamlin has three wins at this track in his career. One of them is bound to crack the Top 3, if not both of them.

Bet: Christopher Bell or Denny Hamlin (+100)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Wurth 400

Tyler Reddick (+125) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet in the Wurth 400. He won this race in 2022, was fourth last year, has three Top 5s in six appearances, and is second among the field with a 9.3 average finish. All of these numbers give me confidence that he’s a Top 5 driver on Sunday.

Bet: Tyler Reddick (+125)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Wurth 400

Chase Elliott (+100) is my pick for the best Top 10 bet. Sure, there are other options, but Elliott has seven Top 10s in 14 TMS starts. He won this race last year and is 4^th with a 12.2 average finish. Additionally, Elliott has a 10.9 average finish on the season.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+100

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+115)
• Toyota (+150)
• Ford (+350)

Toyota has just three wins in this race, while Ford has five. However, Chevy has more than doubled their combined total, with 11 victories including four wins in a row. Take Chevy to win a 5^th straight at Texas Motor Speedway.

Bet: Chevrolet (+115)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+150)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+250)
• 23XL Racing (+500)
• Team Penske (+600)
• RFK Racing (+1400)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1600)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Wood Brothers Racing (+2200)
• Spire Motorsports (+4000)
• Front Row Motorsports (+5000)

This race comes down to Joe Gibbs Racing vs. Hendrick Motorsports, as it does for most weeks. The two have won four of the last five TMS races and they’ve combined for eight victories in 10 races this season so far. I picked Hendrick to win this weekend, but JGR could easily take the checkered flag.

With that said, Hendrick has three of the last four wins at TMS, including two in a row. I like for it to be a third straight victory.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+150)