Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions May 1st 2025

Guardians vs Twins Game Preview: Momentum Swings as Cleveland Takes Control

What a difference a few days can make. After getting crushed 11-1 in Monday’s series opener against the Minnesota Twins, the Cleveland Guardians have bounced back with two hard-fought victories and now look to complete the turnaround by taking the series finale on Thursday night.

Back-to-back wins—including a walk-off homer from Kyle Manzardo and a go-ahead three-run blast by Bo Naylor—have infused new life into Progressive Field. The Guardians are showing resilience, and they’ll need every bit of it to continue their climb in a competitive American League Central.

To stay on top of the odds for this pivotal division clash, follow live updates on the MLB odds page.

Guardians Finding Clutch Power at the Right Time

Just a few days ago, Cleveland was stumbling. After dropping two straight to the Boston Red Sox at home and opening this series with a demoralizing blowout loss, questions loomed about their offensive depth.

Then came Tuesday, when rookie Kyle Manzardo delivered a ninth-inning walk-off shot for a 2-1 win. It was the kind of moment that often sparks something bigger.

Cleveland followed that with a comeback win Wednesday, highlighted by Bo Naylor’s three-run homer in the seventh inning. Naylor now has homers in back-to-back games and is starting to look like a long-term threat behind the plate.

Manager Stephen Vogt sees these performances as evidence of growth.

“We’re gonna have our ups and downs,” he said postgame. “But I really like the direction this team is going.”

The Guardians are now 5-4 on their longest homestand of the season. A series win over the Twins could turn a streaky stretch into a foundational one.

Twins’ Offense Fizzling After Firestorm Start

On Monday, the Twins’ offense exploded for 11 runs and 17 hits—just one game removed from sweeping a weekend series. Since then? It’s been radio silence.

Over the past two games, Minnesota has managed just 13 hits combined, struck out 13 times on Wednesday, and has largely looked out of sync.

Trevor Larnach has remained productive, hitting .324 with 9 RBIs over his last nine games. But aside from Larnach, the Twins have been searching for answers—especially away from home, where they’re just 4-12 on the season.

Minnesota still has a chance to salvage a split, but they’ll need a stronger approach at the plate and a bounce-back effort from a promising young starter.

Simeon Woods Richardson Returns to the Hill

Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has been one of the quieter success stories for Minnesota this season. With a 2-2 record and a 4.07 ERA, he’s flashed command and confidence, especially in recent outings. In Saturday’s win over the Los Angeles Angels, he allowed just one run across 5 1/3 innings, striking out a season-high seven without issuing a walk.

The 23-year-old says his mindset is simple: “You’ve still got to go about your game plan. It’s 60 feet, 6 inches, no matter who’s in the box.”

Woods Richardson has a bit of history against Cleveland. In three starts last season, he posted a 2.12 ERA—but the Twins lost all three games. While he’s held Jose Ramirez hitless (0-for-8), he’s been tagged for home runs by Bo Naylor, Steven Kwan, and Kyle Manzardo.

To evaluate betting angles for his performance, check detailed analytics in the MLB expert guide.

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Ben Lively Looks to Get Deeper Into Games

Cleveland will counter with Ben Lively, who holds a 1-2 record and a 4.40 ERA through six outings. While he hasn’t posted a quality start yet, the Guardians are 4-2 when he pitches, largely due to timely hitting and solid bullpen support.

His last outing came in Game 1 of a doubleheader against Boston. Lively allowed four runs—including two home runs—over five innings but did just enough to keep Cleveland in contention.

The righty knows improvement is needed.

“I just got to get aggressive and throw competitive pitches no matter what,” Lively said. “Of course I want to go deeper… just got to bear down.”

Lively has minimal experience against the Twins, and the results haven’t been pretty. In two relief appearances, he owns a 9.00 ERA, and Twins hitters like Edouard Julien and Christian Vazquez are a combined 4-for-5 against him.

For full matchup breakdowns and batter vs. pitcher history, visit our MLB team analysis page.

What’s at Stake?

This game offers much more than just a series result.

For Cleveland, a win means momentum. With a young core and rising stars finding their stride, the Guardians can take a critical step forward in what’s shaping up to be a tight divisional race.

For Minnesota, it’s about avoiding a full backslide. A promising road trip has quickly turned sour, and the offense needs to reassert itself before this becomes more than a small slump.

Thursday night could be the tipping point for both teams as May baseball ramps up intensity.

Stat Snapshot: Guardians vs Twins

FAQs

When is the Guardians vs Twins game?
Thursday night at Progressive Field, wrapping up a four-game AL Central series.

Who are the starting pitchers?
Cleveland sends out Ben Lively (1-2, 4.40 ERA), while Minnesota counters with Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 4.07 ERA).

How has Bo Naylor performed lately?
He’s homered in back-to-back games and hit a crucial three-run blast in Wednesday’s win.

Who has had success against Lively?
Twins hitters Edouard Julien and Christian Vazquez are a combined 4-for-5 against him.

What’s the series score?
Cleveland leads 2-1 and will clinch the series with a win.

Where can I get more betting picks for this game?
Head to the MLB Picks Page for expert analysis, line movement, and player props.