Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions May 2nd 2025

Bullpen Shakeup: Closers Down, Depth Ascends

Arizona’s back end has taken a hit with A.J. Puk landing on the IL with an elbow strain and Justin Martinez sidelined for shoulder fatigue. Shelby Miller closed out Thursday’s 4–2 win over the Mets, and Kevin Ginkel, who worked a clean eighth inning, could see closing opportunities while the club’s depth deputies hold down the fort.

April Resurgence: Kelly’s Strong Form

Merrill Kelly rebounded from one rough outing to post a 2.17 ERA across his other five April starts, striking out eight without a walk in his last outing. His career 2–1 mark with a 2.92 ERA against Philadelphia underscores the confidence the D-backs place in his ability to navigate a potent lineup.

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Lefty Clash: Kelly vs. Luzardo

Kelly’s sinker-curve arsenal thrives on generating grounders, a perfect complement to Arizona’s infield strength. Opposite him, Jesus Luzardo has been stellar since arriving from Miami, working at least five innings in every start and allowing more than two runs only once. Though Luzardo owns a 5.09 ERA in four career outings versus Arizona, his changeup-heavy mix has baffled hitters this season.

Offense & Opportunities

Arizona’s lineup rode momentum from a two-of-three series win over the Mets, averaging four runs per game in that stretch. Philadelphia countered a rough start with a 10–4 win over the Cubs, highlighted by Jose Ramírez’s milestone steal and go-ahead RBI. Both clubs will look for timely hitting to support their starters and tilt early innings in their favor.

Betting Angle

With Kelly’s ground-ball tendencies and Luzardo’s strike-zone control, early under plays on total runs carry appeal before tired arms emerge. For your full breakdown, check out our linked MLB Best Bets.

Scoreline Forecast

Expect a pitchers’ duel early, but Arizona’s infield backing and bullpen depth should tip the balance late.