Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions May 3rd 2025

Aaron Nola’s Winless Streak Continues: What to Expect as Phillies Face Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola remains one of the most seasoned and respected arms in Major League Baseball, but 2025 hasn’t been kind to him. Despite a recent performance that showed signs of a turnaround, Nola enters his next start still searching for his first win of the season.

As the Phillies prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 2 of a pivotal three-game series, here’s a full breakdown of what fans can expect—and what both teams are bringing to the mound.

1. Aaron Nola’s 2025: A Tale of Two Halves

Aaron Nola signed a $172 million contract extension with the Phillies in late 2023, backing his long-standing role as a cornerstone of the franchise. However, his numbers tell a different story this season.

After going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA last year, Nola has fallen to 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA across six starts in 2025. Though his latest outing—a seven-inning, one-run gem against the Cubs—offered hope, earlier games featured shaky command, including multiple home runs allowed and four-walk outings, which are unusual for the veteran right-hander. Don’t miss out on our Daily Baseball Picks from MLB Expert Handicappers

2. Nola vs. Diamondbacks: A Rocky History

Historically, Nola has struggled against Arizona. He holds a 2-3 record with a bloated 7.31 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks. With Arizona’s lineup heating up, he’ll need to be especially sharp.

3. Brandon Pfaadt: Arizona’s Quiet Ace

While Nola searches for form, Arizona sends Brandon Pfaadt to the mound—a pitcher in red-hot form. Pfaadt is 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA and has won five consecutive starts. He consistently pitches deep into games and has received solid run support.

Although this will be his first career regular-season start against Philadelphia, he’s already made an impression in the postseason. In the 2023 National League Championship Series, he threw 9 2/3 combined innings against the Phillies, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 16.

4. Phillies’ Offensive Surge Could Shift Momentum

While Nola battles on the mound, Philadelphia’s bats are helping keep the team afloat. Kyle Schwarber launched his 10th home run of the season on Friday, tying him for the National League lead with Arizona’s Eugenio Suárez. Max Kepler also added a crucial solo homer in the same game, helping the Phillies secure a 3-2 comeback win.

Philadelphia has now won five of its last six games, with manager Rob Thomson noting the team’s power surge. “The ball is carrying a lot more right now,” he said.

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5. Diamondbacks’ Reinforcements: Ketel Marte Returns

Arizona’s lineup just got a major lift with the return of Ketel Marte from a hamstring injury. Although he went 1-for-4 in his return on Friday, his presence adds depth and balance to the Diamondbacks’ offense.

Meanwhile, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. chipped in with three hits and an RBI, showing that Arizona’s offense can be just as potent as Philadelphia’s if given the opportunity.

6. Matchup Outlook: Key Metrics and Trends

The pitching matchup could define the game. Nola’s recent bounce-back outing provides some optimism, but his overall season numbers and past struggles against Arizona are hard to ignore. On the other hand, Pfaadt’s consistency and dominance, both this season and in the 2023 NLCS, make him a formidable opponent.

7. Managerial Confidence vs. Statistical Reality

Despite the poor record, Phillies manager Rob Thomson continues to back Nola with confidence and trust. “He walks in, puts his hard hat on, and goes to work every day… That’s why I really don’t worry about him that much,” he said.

Yet with every start, the pressure mounts. For Nola, this outing could be the turning point in his season—or a further step into a slump that’s already raising eyebrows across the league.

Final Thoughts

Aaron Nola is at a crossroads in his 2025 campaign. A strong outing could reset the tone of his season, while continued struggles could deepen concerns about his performance post-extension. As the Phillies ride an offensive high and welcome a fierce opponent in the Diamondbacks, all eyes are on the mound Saturday evening.