Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions May 4th 2025

Padres Look to Sweep Reeling Pirates as Kolek Makes Debut

The San Diego Padres are heating up, and the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates might just be in the wrong place at the wrong time. On Sunday, San Diego will go for a three-game sweep at PNC Park and try to extend their winning streak to five games. Meanwhile, the Pirates are looking to avoid their fourth straight loss—and their ninth in a row against the Padres dating back to last season.

Making his first major league start, Stephen Kolek will take the mound for San Diego, while Pittsburgh counters with left-hander Andrew Heaney, who’s looking to rebound after a rocky outing.

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Kolek Gets the Call in Strategic Rotation Shift

With an off-day-heavy schedule, the Padres were able to run a four-man rotation through the early part of the season. But with a key series looming against the Yankees, manager Mike Shildt is moving back to a five-man setup, giving Kolek the nod in Nick Pivetta’s normal slot.

This isn’t Kolek’s big-league debut—he appeared in 42 games as a reliever last season—but it is his first start in the majors. He’s made five starts for Triple-A El Paso this year and previously worked as a starter in the minors before converting to relief in 2022.

The decision not only gives San Diego’s top arms extra rest but also provides Kolek a prime opportunity to showcase his potential. With a 3-0 career record and 5.21 ERA over 46 2/3 innings in 2024, he’s shown flashes of what he can offer.

For more on Padres stats and player trends, check out the full MLB Team Page.

Heaney Solid But Vulnerable After Scoreless Streak Snapped

The Pirates will rely on Andrew Heaney, who opened the season strong but ran into trouble last time out. After starting the year with a 1.72 ERA and a 20 1/3-inning scoreless streak, he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs in a 9-0 loss on Tuesday.

Heaney was dominant through the first 11 batters of that game but unraveled quickly. He finished without recording a strikeout—a rare stat line for the veteran—and struggled with command, issuing three walks.

Still, Heaney’s full-season ERA stands at a solid 2.50, making him one of the Pirates’ few reliable arms early in 2025. With Pittsburgh’s recent losing streak and offensive inconsistency, Heaney has already found his name floating in early trade chatter.

For in-depth game-by-game projections, the MLB Pick Page provides top plays and performance indicators.

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Padres’ Offense Quiet but Clutch

Even though the Padres were limited to just three hits and two runs on Saturday, they found a way to win. Fernando Tatis Jr., who was hit in the forearm by a pitch Friday, didn’t miss a beat—he doubled in the ninth inning, stole third, and then scored the winning run on a wild pitch.

It’s that kind of heads-up, hustle baseball that’s helped San Diego climb out of its early-season funk. Tatis being back at full speed is a positive sign for a team starting to click offensively.

Want to analyze hitters’ recent trends? Check the MLB Team Page for daily stat leaders and lineup news.

What to Watch in Sunday’s Finale

This game may come down to which pitcher handles pressure better. Kolek will face the test of controlling nerves in his first start, while Heaney will be looking to bounce back from a frustrating loss and avoid falling further into inconsistency.

The Padres are playing with confidence and purpose, while the Pirates continue to struggle both offensively and defensively. It’s a chance for San Diego to stay hot and for Pittsburgh to prove it can still fight back.

Check out pitching form, bullpen usage, and lineup trends with the latest breakdowns on the Expert Betting Guide.

FAQs

Who is starting for the Padres today?
Stephen Kolek is making his first MLB start after pitching in relief during the 2024 season.

Why are the Padres using Kolek now?
They’re adjusting their rotation to keep top starters rested for an upcoming series vs. the Yankees.

How did Heaney pitch in his last outing?
He gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, snapping a 20 1/3-inning scoreless streak.

What’s San Diego’s recent form?
The Padres have won four straight and are looking for a sweep of the Pirates.

How have the Pirates been playing?
They’ve lost six of their last seven and have dropped eight straight to the Padres dating back to last season.

Where can I get expert analysis for this game?
The Expert Betting Guide on ScoresAndStats offers breakdowns on pitching matchups, team trends, and more.