Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions May 4th 2025

Blue Jays, Guardians Could Light Up the Scoreboard in Finale

If the first two games of this weekend’s series between the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays are any indication, Sunday’s finale could turn into a home run derby. The teams have combined for six home runs so far, and with two of MLB’s most homer-prone starters taking the mound, the odds of more baseballs leaving the yard are high.

Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee and Toronto’s Bowden Francis will start Sunday’s rubber match, and both have had their share of struggles keeping the ball in the park.

For those following daily betting trends, visit the MLB Odds Page to track live updates and team movement.

Bowden Francis: Home Struggles Continue

Francis has been particularly vulnerable at home. Entering the weekend, he led the entire league with 11 home runs allowed, and his home ERA is a bloated 6.00. The right-hander is 2-1 in three starts at Rogers Centre this season, but his most recent outing was one to forget. In a 10-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday, he gave up five home runs—four solo shots and a three-run blast—across just three innings.

“That was just one of those days where they hit my mistakes right away,” Francis said postgame. He became just the third Blue Jay ever to allow five home runs in a single game.

Francis has been more effective in relief against Cleveland historically, with no homers allowed across 9 2/3 innings in four appearances since 2023.

You can find more team pitching stats and matchups on the MLB Team Page.

Guardians Heating Up at the Right Time

Cleveland enters the series finale having won four of their last five games, and their most recent win was a comeback thriller. Trailing 3-1 in the eighth, Daniel Schneeman launched a solo homer, then stepped up again in the ninth to deliver a go-ahead grand slam in a 5-3 victory.

Schneeman has been on a tear, going 7-for-18 over his last seven games. With Cleveland’s lineup getting contributions up and down the order, Francis could be in for another rough day if his command isn’t sharp.

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Tanner Bibee’s Solo Shot Philosophy

For Bibee, the story is a bit more nuanced. He’s surrendered nine home runs this year—just two fewer than Francis—and while he’s allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts (both wins), two of those came via the long ball.

“Solo homers aren’t going to beat you,” Bibee said after his last outing. “If you give up two solo homers, who cares?”

That strategy seems to be working. Bibee tossed a season-high seven innings in Cleveland’s 2-1 win over Minnesota last Tuesday, striking out five and walking none. However, on the road he’s struggled mightily—giving up seven homers and 13 runs in just 9 2/3 innings across his last two away starts.

He’s had success in Toronto, though, giving up just two runs (on solo homers to Guerrero and Springer) in 13 total innings across two career wins over the Blue Jays.

For expert analysis on pitcher trends like these, the Expert Betting Guide has breakdowns you can’t miss.

Stars to Watch: Guerrero, Springer, and Schneeman

Sunday’s game could be shaped by a few key bats:

• George Springer is batting .482 in 13 home games this season and had two more hits on Saturday.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone deep against Bibee and continues to be a threat in clutch moments.
• Daniel Schneeman, with two homers on Saturday, could be the game-changer Cleveland needs.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on Jose Ramirez, who’s nursing a mild ankle sprain. He may sit out again as the team plays it safe.

Stay tuned for updates on active lineups and projected starters on the MLB Team Page.

FAQs

Who’s pitching for the Blue Jays today?
Bowden Francis, who leads the majors with 11 home runs allowed in 2025.

How has Tanner Bibee performed recently?
He’s been strong at home but shaky on the road, allowing seven homers in his last two away starts.

Is Jose Ramirez expected to play?
He’s day-to-day with a mild ankle sprain and could miss his second straight game.

Which Guardians players are heating up?
Daniel Schneeman, who hit a solo shot and a grand slam in Saturday’s win, is 7-for-18 in his last seven games.

Who has homered off Bibee?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer both hit solo shots off him in 2023.

Where can I find prop picks and previews?
Check out today’s matchups and player props on the MLB Pick Page for predictions and value plays.