New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions May 12th 2025

Paul Skenes vs Mets: Can the Rookie Star Silence New York’s Bats?

When Paul Skenes takes the mound in Queens on Monday night, he won’t just be starting another ballgame—he’ll be stepping into one of the most intense atmospheres in baseball. The Pittsburgh Pirates phenom, already a Rookie of the Year front-runner, will square off against the surging New York Mets in a must-watch matchup.

Both teams are riding the high of Sunday victories, but the energy surrounding this showdown feels different. The Mets are riding a hot streak, leading the NL East with firepower up and down the lineup. Meanwhile, the Pirates are searching for identity and consistency after an emotional managerial change.

If you’re eyeing this matchup for fantasy, betting, or just pure baseball love—this one’s packed with intrigue. Don’t forget to visit our MLB Pick Page and Expert Betting Guide for deeper insight.

Paul Skenes: Big Lights, Bigger Expectations

While Skenes has pitched in NYC before, his appearance on Monday is different. It’ll be his first full-length start in the Big Apple and the first time he’ll be asked to silence one of the hottest lineups in baseball in front of a high-energy, unforgiving crowd.

Let’s talk resume:

• 2024 Record: 3-4
• ERA: 2.77
• Last start: 6 IP, 2 ER in a 2-1 loss to the Cardinals

Skenes has already built a reputation as one of the game’s electric young arms. His All-Star Game appearance last July and a dominant Rookie of the Year campaign have vaulted him into elite territory, despite just entering his sophomore season.

He faced the Mets once last year—seven innings, two runs, and a win. But this Mets team is not last year’s version. The stakes are higher, and Skenes will have to be sharp from pitch one.

Mets Are Rolling: Can Skenes Stop the Momentum?

New York enters this series at 26-15, atop the NL East and among the best offensive teams in the league.

Offensive Juggernaut

Let’s run the numbers:

• .769 OPS (2nd in NL)
• 199 Runs (Top 5)
• 51 Home Runs (Top 5)
• .255 Batting Average

What’s more impressive is how the Mets are winning. It’s not just stars like Francisco Lindor or Brandon Nimmo—it’s the entire lineup. As Lindor himself said:

“It feels good to have that feeling that anybody can get it done.”

The Mets’ ability to manufacture big innings at any time makes them dangerous. Just ask the Cubs, who were torched in the eighth inning of Sunday’s 6-2 loss.

David Peterson: Mets’ Lefty With Something to Prove

While all eyes are on Skenes, don’t overlook Mets starter David Peterson. He’s been solid if unspectacular, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.05 ERA so far this season.

Peterson’s last outing?

• 6 innings
• 4 runs allowed (2 earned)
• 5-1 loss to Arizona

Historically, he’s been decent against Pittsburgh:

• 3 appearances (2 starts)
• 3.48 ERA
• No decisions

Peterson will look to exploit the Pirates’ cold bats early and let the Mets’ explosive lineup go to work. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistent—and that’s often all you need when your offense is top-tier.

You can track this matchup and line movement on our MLB Odds Page.

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Pirates in Transition: A Win That Means More Than Just a W

Pittsburgh may sit last in the NL Central at 14-27, but Sunday’s walk-off win over Atlanta might mark a turning point.

New Manager, New Energy?

Derek Shelton was fired last week following a brutal 7-game skid. Since then:

• Game 1 (Under Don Kelly): 3-2 win vs Braves
• Game 2: 3-2 extra-inning loss
• Game 3: 4-3 walk-off win

That’s competitive baseball. Even with the losing streak, the Pirates showed resilience against the powerful Braves. Joey Bart’s ninth-inning grounder may have only scored one run, but it sparked something in this club.

“Played a good team and won the series, so can’t complain,” Bart said postgame. “Just got to keep moving.”

Could this series against New York solidify a turnaround?

Skenes vs Mets Offense: Key Matchups to Watch

Francisco Lindor vs Skenes

Lindor is the heart of the Mets offense right now. His game-winning homer on Sunday was a tone-setter, and he thrives in prime-time moments. Skenes will need to keep him guessing with elevated heat and sharp breaking pitches.

Pete Alonso vs Fastballs

Skenes’ four-seamer has late life, but if it leaks up, Alonso could make him pay. This is a true power-vs-power matchup—who flinches first?

Joey Bart’s Confidence

If Bart’s confidence at the plate continues, he could be a sneaky asset in the lower half of the Pirates’ order. Don’t be surprised if he delivers again in a key spot.

Want to dig deeper into player stats? Check out full rosters and team metrics on our MLB Team Page.

Betting Angles and Series Outlook

Game 1 Prediction

This game has all the ingredients for a classic pitcher’s duel. Skenes is going to bring the fire, but the Mets lineup is deep and hot. The Pirates’ emotional high from Sunday could carry over—but is it enough?

Prediction:
Mets 4, Pirates 2 — a late rally against the Pittsburgh bullpen proves decisive.

Series Prediction

• Mets win 2 of 3
• Pirates show signs of life, especially in Game 2, but New York’s lineup is too deep to contain all series long.

FAQs

What time is the Mets vs Pirates game?

Game 1 of the series starts Monday night in New York. Check team websites for exact start times.

How has Paul Skenes performed this year?

He’s 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and is considered a favorite for Rookie of the Year.

Who’s the better pitcher in Game 1?

Skenes has the higher ceiling, but Peterson has been steady and could thrive with run support.

Is this Skenes’ first time in New York?

No, but it’s his first full start in NYC. He threw two innings vs the Yankees last September.

What happened to Pirates manager Derek Shelton?

He was fired last week after a seven-game losing streak. Don Kelly is the interim skipper.

Who’s hot for the Mets?

Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo are tearing the cover off the ball, and the Mets are among the league leaders in runs, OPS, and homers.

Final Thoughts: Rookie Spotlight Meets Big Apple Pressure

Paul Skenes has the talent to be one of MLB’s next great aces. Monday night will test not only his stuff—but his composure. Can he handle a red-hot Mets team in front of a roaring New York crowd?

We’ll soon find out. Either way, it’s must-see baseball.