Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions May 14th 2025

Homestand Finale & Urgent Stakes

Milwaukee’s bats have vanished, producing zero runs through the first two games in Cleveland and compiling just three extra‑base hits (all doubles). This marks the second time in May the Brewers have suffered back‑to‑back shutouts, fueling a 4‑8 slide that leaves them five games back in the NL Central. A 30‑minute closed‑door meeting after Tuesday’s 2‑0 defeat underlined the urgency manager Pat Murphy feels: “Our offense has sputtered … we’ve got to get that back.” Victory in the finale would avert the club’s first scoreless series since 2019 and send them home with a shred of momentum.

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Pitching Matchup: Henderson’s Encore vs. Williams’ Momentum

Rookie right‑hander Logan Henderson (1‑0, 1.50 ERA) re‑joins the Brewers after a dazzling debut on April 20 (6 IP, 9 K). Armed with a mid‑90s fastball and sweeper, Henderson dominated Triple‑A Nashville (5‑1, 2.40 ERA) by pounding the top of the zone. He’ll duel Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (3‑2, 4.38 ERA), who blanked Philadelphia over five innings last Friday and anchors a rotation sporting a 0.67 ERA over its past five starts. Williams’ high‑spin curve neutralizes lefties, but he surrendered five runs to Milwaukee last August—motivation to deliver payback.

Brewers’ Offensive Problem: Fear of the Mistake

Milwaukee ranks 28th in slugging (.349) and 27th in OPS (.656). First baseman Rhys Hoskins sees a lineup “afraid to make a mistake,” grinding through at‑bats instead of attacking hittable pitches early. Christian Yelich owns just two RBIs in May, while William Contreras’ hard‑contact rate dipped eight points in the past two weeks. A spark must come from middle‑order production—perhaps an early ambush of Williams’ first‑pitch heaters—to rebuild confidence.

Guardians’ Pitching Surge & Depth Tested

Even after placing Ben Lively on the IL (flexor strain), Cleveland’s starters boast a 2.47 ERA in May behind Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Friday’s hero Williams. The bullpen (2.83 ERA) remains rested thanks to five straight outings of at least five innings from the rotation. Manager Stephen Vogt preaches a “take the baton” mentality, expecting Williams to extend the scoreless streak and give closer Emmanuel Clase another low‑leverage save opportunity.

Betting Angle

Milwaukee’s anemic offense versus Cleveland’s red‑hot pitching begs the question: can the Brewers finally break through? Lean under on total runs through five innings, with prop value on Henderson strikeouts (line 4.5) given his 31 percent whiff rate in Triple‑A. For a single, must‑read betting hub on side, totals and player props, see MLB Betting Picks.