Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions July 20th 2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles July 20th 2025

The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. The game is set for Sunday, July 20, 2025, at 12:10 PM. Fans can catch the action on MASN as the teams play under clear skies with a light breeze.

The Orioles, led by interim manager Tony Mansolino, have a record of 43-54 this season. They are 13 games behind in the AL East. Trevor Rogers will start on the mound for Baltimore, boasting an ERA of 1.53. The Rays, managed by Kevin Cash, hold a 52-47 record and are 5 games back in the division. Ryan Pepiot will pitch for Tampa Bay, carrying an ERA of 3.38 into the game.

Orioles vs Rays Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL
• Date: Sunday, July 20, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +106, Rays Moneyline -125, Orioles Runline +1.5 (-197), Rays Runline -1.5 (+165), Total Over 9.0 (+100), Total Under 9.0 (-120)

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles recently lost to the Tampa Bay Rays, 4-3. Despite the loss, Dean Kremer pitched well, allowing only one run in seven innings. Jordan Westburg stood out with three hits, including a double, showing his ability to get on base.

The Orioles have shown they can hit well, ranking 11th in home runs with 111 this season. They have players like Ryan O’Hearn and Jackson Holliday contributing with solid batting averages and power. Their ability to hit home runs and get extra-base hits gives them a chance to score runs quickly.

Trevor Rogers will start for the Orioles, bringing an impressive ERA of 1.53. His strong pitching can keep the Rays’ hitters in check. With Rogers on the mound and key hitters ready to perform, the Orioles have a good shot at winning the game.

The Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays recently won against the Baltimore Orioles, 4-3. Zack Littell pitched 6 solid innings, allowing 2 earned runs and striking out 3. Key hitters included Ha-Seong Kim, who went 2 for 3, and Chandler Simpson, who contributed with an RBI.

The Rays have a team batting average of .258, ranking second in the league. They lead the league in stolen bases with 127, showcasing their speed on the bases. Their pitching staff has a batting average against of .236, which ranks sixth, showing they can limit opposing hitters.

Junior Caminero is a key player for the Rays, with 25 home runs and 64 RBIs. Yandy Díaz also contributes with a .291 batting average and 57 RBIs. With Ryan Pepiot starting, who holds a 3.38 ERA, the Rays have a good chance to win the next game.

Simpson Sparks Rays as Sweep Looms Over Orioles

The Tampa Bay Rays are making noise out of the All-Star break, and much of the buzz centers around one name: Chandler Simpson. The 24-year-old rookie has quickly become a revelation in the leadoff spot, energizing the lineup with speed, contact, and defensive prowess. On Sunday, the Rays will look to ride that momentum into a series sweep of the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field.

Simpson’s performance on Saturday capped a thrilling 4-3 comeback win. After falling behind 2-1 in the eighth inning, Simpson delivered a game-tying RBI single, then showcased his elite speed by stealing second, advancing to third on a wild pitch, and scoring the go-ahead run on an error. It was a clinic in how to manufacture runs without power — fitting for a player still seeking his first MLB home run, yet already boasting 27 stolen bases.

“He moves the ball around very well and plays to his strengths,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “His speed is great, and he does a great job of putting the bat on the ball.”

Rays Riding Momentum and Rookie Surge

The Rays’ offense hasn’t just leaned on power. With Simpson at the top of the order and Jose Caballero also swiping bags (MLB-leading 32 stolen bases), Tampa Bay has crafted a dynamic lineup built around pressure, contact, and speed. Simpson is batting .316 with 15 RBIs during his 18-game hitting streak, and he’s quickly becoming a spark plug on both sides of the ball.

His defensive play to seal Saturday’s win was just as notable as his offense. He robbed Jackson Holliday of extra bases with a leaping catch at the wall, drawing praise from both teammates and coaches. “I knew he hit it good, and I just wanted to get behind it,” Simpson said. “I had to leap and got it.”

The Rays crushed the Orioles 11-1 on Friday and have limited Baltimore to just four runs in two games since the break, highlighting Tampa’s overall dominance in the series.

Pepiot Set for Bounce-Back Start vs. Baltimore

Looking to close the sweep, the Rays will send Ryan Pepiot (6-7, 3.38 ERA) to the mound. While his last outing against the Boston Red Sox didn’t go as planned — allowing four runs (three earned) in a 4-1 loss — Pepiot has shown he can overpower this Orioles lineup.

He struck out 11 Baltimore batters over eight innings on June 16 in a dominant 7-1 win and owns a 2-1 record with a 4.29 ERA in four career starts versus the O’s.

The Rays will hope Pepiot can replicate that earlier success, especially with the bullpen likely rested after solid outings the last two games.

Orioles Turn to Rogers in Search of Salvage Win

Baltimore will counter with left-hander Trevor Rogers (2-1, 1.53 ERA), who continues to find his rhythm after a delayed start to the season due to a knee injury. Rogers was sharp in his most recent start — a tough-luck loss in which he gave up just one run in 6 2/3 innings to his former team, the Miami Marlins.

Despite that promising performance, Rogers remains winless in his career against Tampa Bay. He faced the Rays on June 18 and lasted just 2 1/3 innings, giving up three runs before receiving a no-decision in a 12-8 loss.

“He’s shown big improvements lately,” said Orioles interim manager Tony Mansolino. “He’s been facing good lineups and holding his own. That tells us a lot about his development.”

What’s at Stake

A win for the Rays would give them a three-game sweep and continued momentum in the AL East chase, where they’re neck-and-neck with teams like the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. It would also extend their post-break win streak and bolster a growing reputation as a team that thrives in the second half.

For Baltimore, salvaging a win before the break becomes crucial. The Orioles have fallen flat in two straight games, and with injuries mounting and pitching inconsistencies resurfacing, a strong showing from Rogers could restore some confidence heading into the next stretch.

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The Lean

The Rays are favored on the moneyline at -125, while the Orioles are at +106. The Rays have a stronger batting average and pitching stats, ranking 2nd in batting average and 10th in ERA. My model projects the Rays to win with a score of 5-4. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Rays to win straight up.

The total line is set at 9.0 with the over at +100 and the under at -120. Considering the Orioles’ high ERA of 4.99 and the Rays’ solid hitting, my model projects a total of 9 runs. This aligns with the set line, so the recommendation is to take the over for this game.