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Reds vs Pirates Prediction: Will Skenes Deliver a Cy Young Statement?
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park on Thursday, August 7, 2025, to open a four-game NL Central series under clear skies and warm summer conditions. First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET.
The Reds come in at 60-55, holding third place in the division and clinging to NL Wild Card hopes. Meanwhile, the Pirates sit at 49-66 and look to snap a two-game skid behind ace Paul Skenes.
Pittsburgh is favored at -176 on the moneyline, with Cincinnati at +148. The run line sits at Pirates -1.5 (+131), Reds +1.5 (-156). The total is set at 7.0 runs (O -121 / U +100).
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Reds Can Win If…
Brady Singer continues his recent dominance. The 27-year-old righty has won two straight, including a 10-strikeout gem against Atlanta. He’s faced Pittsburgh twice this year, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA.
Offensively, the Reds lean on Elly De La Cruz, who leads the club with 19 homers and 73 RBIs. Spencer Steer’s recent breakout (4 RBIs vs Cubs) adds firepower to a team that ranks 9th in MLB in on-base percentage.
Cincinnati’s path to victory lies in early offense and defensive execution. Their pitching staff allows the 4th-lowest batting average against (.235), giving Singer a fighting chance if the Reds can put up runs early.
“We just keep putting together series wins and giving us a chance to win,” Singer said after his latest outing. “This team’s awesome. I love coming to work with them every day.”
Pirates Can Win If…
Paul Skenes pitches like the Cy Young favorite he is. The 22-year-old righty leads all qualified MLB starters with a 2.02 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92. He’s dominated the Reds in his career: 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings.
His last outing was shakier — 4 ER in 5+ innings vs. Colorado — but the Pirates need him to go deep after the bullpen threw 16.2 innings over three days.
“The bullpen has been taxed… They’ve done a good job keeping us in games,” manager Don Kelly said after their latest loss.
Offensively, the Bucs will look to Andrew McCutchen (11 HR) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.270 AVG) to generate enough support. Nick Gonzales (3-for-4 in the Giants finale) remains a rising threat in the lineup.
Key MLB Betting Trends
Here’s a quick glance at how both teams have performed across key betting metrics:
| Trend Type | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Form | 6-4 in last 10 games | 5-5 in last 10 games |
| Run Line Record | Covered 4 of last 6 wins | Covered 5 of last 7 games |
| Total (O/U) | Under is 5-1 in last 6 games | Over is 4-2 in last 6 road games |
| Pitching Strength | 5th in batting average against (.238) | 4th in batting average against (.235) |
The Lean
This is a prime bounce-back spot for Paul Skenes, and Pittsburgh’s pitching edge is too strong to ignore. Singer has been sharp lately, but he doesn’t have the same overpowering ceiling. My model gives Pittsburgh a 61% win probability.
Prediction: Pirates 4, Reds 3
Best Bet: Pirates ML (-176)
Bonus Lean: Under 7.0 (+100)
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