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Liberty vs Wings Prediction: Can Bueckers Power Dallas to a Series Win?
The Dallas Wings host the New York Liberty on Friday night in Arlington, Texas, for the decisive third game of their season series. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET at College Park Center, where the Wings look to snap a three-game losing skid and protect home court.
New York (19-10) won Tuesday’s first leg of the home-and-home set, 85-76, and is favored again behind a rising two-way presence from EuroLeague MVP Emma Meesseman. Dallas (8-22), meanwhile, is hopeful star rookie Paige Bueckers will be available after missing Thursday’s practice with a back strain.
The Liberty are listed at -6.5 on the spread, with a moneyline near -280, while the Wings are at +220. The total sits at 168.5 points.
From Spread to Total, We’ve Got It
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Liberty Can Win If…
Their offense continues to stretch the floor. On Tuesday, the Liberty shot a blistering 12-of-24 from beyond the arc, led by Jonquel Jones and Stephanie Talbot, who each knocked down three triples.
Jones posted a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Meesseman added 13 points in just her second game back in the league since 2022. Her impact has been instant.
“It hasn’t really been any transition period,” Sabrina Ionescu said. “This is Liberty basketball and [Meesseman] fits in.”
New York is still without Breanna Stewart (right knee), but the ball movement and balance on display in Tuesday’s win suggest they can control pace and shot quality even without their superstar forward.
Wings Can Win If…
Paige Bueckers plays — and plays well. The rookie sensation has four straight 20-point outings and dropped 21 points and eight rebounds Tuesday despite tweaking her back mid-game.
“I felt a strain, felt it tighten, so am just getting it worked out,” Bueckers said postgame.
Coach Chris Koclanes sounded cautiously optimistic Thursday, noting: “She should be fine for Friday.”
Even with Bueckers battling injury, the bigger concern was perimeter shooting. Dallas went just 6-of-27 from three, compared to New York’s 50% clip from deep. The Wings need more efficient looks from long range and contributions from healthy bodies like Maddy Siegrist, who returned from injury with 13 points in her first game since June 11.
Myisha Hines-Allen (ankle) is probable and could add some interior toughness that was missing earlier in the week.
Key WNBA Betting Trends
| Trend Type | Dallas Wings | New York Liberty |
|---|---|---|
| ATS Record | 10-18-2 ATS (second-worst in WNBA) | 13-15 ATS |
| Recent Form | 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS last 3 games | 4-2 SU / 3-3 ATS last 6 games |
| Head-to-Head (2025) | Series tied 1-1 (home team won both matchups) | 1-1 vs Dallas, both games decided by 9+ points |
| O/U Record | Over is 3-1 in Wings’ last 4 home games | Under is 5-2 in Liberty’s last 7 overall |
The Lean
Even if Bueckers plays, the Liberty’s floor spacing, depth, and improved perimeter defense give them the edge. Meesseman’s seamless fit has raised the ceiling for New York, and Tuesday’s 3-point clinic could be tough to match for a Dallas team that’s struggled from deep.
Prediction: Liberty 87, Wings 78
Best Bet: Liberty -6.5
Bonus Lean: Over 168.5
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