Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions August 16th 2025

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles August 16th 2025

The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Saturday, August 16, 2025. The Orioles have a record of 56-66 and are ranked 5th in the AL East. They are currently on a three-game winning streak and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games.

The Astros hold a record of 68-54, leading the AL West. They lost their last game but have a 6-4 record over the past ten games. The game will be played under a retractable roof, so the very hot weather and light breeze will not affect play. Cade Povich will start for the Orioles, while Jason Alexander will pitch for the Astros.

Orioles vs Astros Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
• Venue: Daikin Park in Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +119, Astros Moneyline -141, Orioles Runline +1.5 (-176), Astros Runline -1.5 (+146), Total Over 8.5 (-118), Total Under 8.5 (-103)

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles enter their next game on a high after a 7-0 victory over the Houston Astros. Brandon Young was dominant, pitching eight innings and allowing just one hit. Dylan Carlson and Coby Mayo each hit home runs, contributing to the Orioles’ 13-hit performance.

The Orioles have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. They rank 10th in home runs with 147 and 9th in doubles with 198. Gunnar Henderson leads the team with a .283 batting average, adding depth to their lineup.

The Orioles’ pitching staff can also be a deciding factor. Cade Povich, their starter for the next game, has the potential to control the mound. With the Orioles’ recent performance and key stats, they have a solid chance to win again.

The Astros Can Win If…

The Houston Astros are set to play against the Baltimore Orioles at home. In their most recent game, the Astros faced a tough 7-0 loss against the Orioles. Framber Valdez pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing 9 hits and 4 runs, while the team managed only one hit.

Despite the recent loss, the Astros have shown strength in their lineup. Jeremy Peña leads the team with a .318 batting average, and Christian Walker has contributed 16 home runs. The Astros rank 3rd in the league with a .256 batting average, showing they can bounce back with strong hitting.

The Astros’ pitching staff has also been effective, with the team ranking 8th in ERA at 3.78. Jason Alexander will start for the Astros, holding a 3-1 record. With their solid pitching and batting stats, the Astros have the tools to secure a win in this game.

The Lean

The Astros are favored on the moneyline at -141. With a strong pitching staff ranked 8th in ERA and 1st in strikeouts, they have an edge over the Orioles. The Orioles’ pitching ranks 27th in ERA, which could be a challenge against the Astros’ lineup. My model projects the Astros to win with a score of 5-3.

The total for the game is set at 8.5. Considering the Astros’ solid pitching and the Orioles’ struggles on the mound, the game is likely to stay under. My model predicts a total of 8 runs. The under at 8.5 (-103) is the recommended pick.

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Orioles look to ride momentum after spectacular pitching performance vs. Astros

The Baltimore Orioles pivoted toward development at the deadline, and Friday night in Houston they saw exactly the kind of growth they hoped for. Rookie Brandon Young flirted with perfection in a 7-0 win, giving Baltimore a jolt as this series continues. For a broader look at today’s matchups across the league, skim the MLB previews hub.

Brandon Young’s breakout sets the tone

Young, 26, carried a perfect game into the eighth and needed only 74 pitches to navigate seven spotless frames before an infield hit with two outs in the eighth ended his bid. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out six over eight innings, an emphatic response after allowing six earned runs to Oakland in his previous turn. Interim manager Tony Mansolino praised the accountability and maturity behind the performance, noting how it can propel a young starter forward.

If you’re weighing how Friday’s dominance might shape Saturday wagering, compare projections and angles on today’s MLB picks.

Baltimore’s plan: opener into bulk innings

The Orioles will open with right-hander Rico Garcia before handing the ball to lefty Cade Povich, who is expected to work the bulk. Povich has three quality starts this season and is coming off six strong innings (one run, five strikeouts) against the Athletics, though he remains winless over his past nine starts. He faced Houston once last year, allowing five runs across five innings in a game Baltimore still won 7-5.

For matchup tendencies, bullpen form, and projected lineups across the slate, check the rolling MLB previews collection.

Astros counter with in-form Jason Alexander

Houston turns to right-hander Jason Alexander, who enters with back-to-back scoreless outings, including six shutout frames in a 7-1 win at the Yankees. In five Astros starts this season he’s 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA over 28 2/3 innings. This will be his first career look at the Orioles, and early sequencing should matter: Baltimore’s opener strategy aims to steer the heart of Houston’s order away from favorable splits before Povich settles in.

If you’re refining your approach, brush up on situational concepts—like how openers can change first-five dynamics—in the MLB expert betting guide.

Houston’s uneven offense and the injury backdrop

The Astros were blanked into the ninth for the second time on this homestand, a snapshot of a season marked by inconsistency. Injuries have played a role, most recently to closer Josh Hader, sidelined from throwing for roughly three weeks with a left shoulder capsule strain. Manager Joe Espada highlighted the club’s intent to be aggressive against Young’s strike-throwing profile, but that plan didn’t translate into sustained pressure.

Track how those ebbs and flows show up in final scores and box lines throughout the week via the latest MLB game results.

Keys to Saturday

Baltimore’s path is straightforward: ride early strike throwing, protect Povich with the opener, and continue to convert balls in play. Houston’s counter is patience—force deeper counts, stack traffic, and test the Orioles’ middle relief. Alexander’s ability to steal strikes early may keep the run environment muted until the middle frames.

If you’re looking to upgrade your card for this matchup or others, you can buy picks from red-hot cappers and verify form on the best handicappers leaderboard.

Outlook

Young’s gem was the developmental spark Baltimore wanted. If Povich carries over his command from last week and the opener gambit neutralizes Houston’s top bats early, the Orioles can keep momentum rolling. The Astros, meanwhile, need a more deliberate plan in counts to manufacture the crooked number they’ve been chasing.