Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions August 16th 2025

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers August 16th 2025

The Detroit Tigers will visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on Saturday, August 16, 2025. The Tigers hold a record of 72-52, ranking first in the AL Central. They are on a three-game winning streak and have gone 6-4 in their last ten games.

The Twins have a record of 57-65, placing them fourth in the division. They have lost their last two games and have a 5-5 record over their last ten. The game will be broadcast on FOX, and the weather forecast calls for light rain with mild temperatures and calm winds. Casey Mize will start for the Tigers, while Zebby Matthews will take the mound for the Twins.

Tigers vs Twins Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
• Venue: Target Field in Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
• Betting Odds:
  • Tigers Moneyline: -112
  • Twins Moneyline: -105
  • Tigers Runline: -1.5 (+150)
  • Twins Runline: +1.5 (-181)
  • Total Over: 8.5 (-104)
  • Total Under: 8.5 (-117)

The Tigers Can Win If…

The Detroit Tigers are coming off a strong performance against the Minnesota Twins, winning 7-0. Charlie Morton led the way with six scoreless innings, allowing only two hits. Dillon Dingler and Javier Báez contributed with multiple RBIs, helping the team secure the win.

The Tigers’ hitting has been solid this season, with a batting average of .249, ranking 9th in the league. They have hit 158 home runs, placing them 8th in this category. Spencer Torkelson has been a key player with 26 home runs, ranking 10th in the league.

On the mound, Casey Mize will start for the Tigers, bringing an ERA of 3.50 and a record of 11-4. The team’s pitching staff holds a batting average against of .238, which is 8th best in the league. With Mize leading the charge, the Tigers have a strong chance to continue their winning streak.

The Twins Can Win If…

The Minnesota Twins are looking to bounce back after a tough 7-0 loss to the Detroit Tigers. In that game, the Twins struggled at the plate, managing only two hits. Pierson Ohl, the starting pitcher, had a rough outing, allowing seven runs, though only three were earned.

Despite recent losses, the Twins have shown they can perform well. Against the Yankees on August 13th, they secured a 4-1 win with strong performances from Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. Buxton, with a batting average of .279 and 24 home runs this season, remains a key player for the Twins.

The Twins’ ability to hit home runs is a strength, ranking 12th in the league with 141 homers. Their lineup includes power hitters like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, who have 16 home runs each. With Zebby Matthews starting on the mound, the Twins hope to leverage their power hitting to secure a win against the Tigers.

The Lean

The Tigers are favored on the moneyline at -112 against the Twins at -105. The Tigers have a stronger batting average and slugging percentage, ranking 9th and 8th, respectively. The Twins have a higher ERA at 4.26, ranking 23rd. My model projects the Tigers to win with a score of 5-4. Based on these factors, the recommendation is to pick the Tigers to win straight up.

The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs with the over at -104 and the under at -117. The Tigers’ pitching ranks 14th in ERA, while the Twins rank 23rd. Both teams have similar home run stats, but the Tigers have a better batting average. My model projects a total score of 9 runs. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the over 8.5.

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Tigers vs. Twins Preview: Casey Mize Seeks More Length in Minneapolis

The Detroit Tigers aim to keep rolling in Minneapolis on Saturday as Casey Mize looks for a third straight win against the Minnesota Twins. For broader context on this and other matchups, browse the daily slate in the MLB previews hub.

Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize’s To-Do List

Mize enters at 11-4 with a 3.50 ERA, winning both August starts without fully cruising. He beat Minnesota on Aug. 4 despite yielding three solo homers across six innings, then limited the Angels to two runs over five frames on Sunday but needed 91 pitches and logged only one clean inning. Career vs. the Twins, he’s 3-4 with a 4.86 ERA. The emphasis tonight is simple: first-pitch strikes, quicker outs, and keeping any long balls solo.

If you’re weighing side or total angles tied to Mize’s efficiency, you can compare viewpoints in today’s MLB picks.

Minnesota Twins: Zebby Matthews’ Path

Right-hander Zebby Matthews (3-4, 5.11) just solved Detroit on Aug. 5 with five strong innings (one run, six strikeouts). He followed that by limiting the Yankees to three runs over 5 2/3, all on two-out solo shots, while tying his career high with nine strikeouts. The stuff is playing — slider and changeup execution, plus a varied fastball look — but finishing innings has been the sticking point.

To see how top pros rate Matthews’ underlying form, check the Best Handicappers leaderboard.

Recent Form and Series Temperature

Detroit has won five of six and the first two in this series, including a 7-0 win Friday after a five-run first inning. Catcher Dillon Dingler has six RBIs in his past four games, adding depth to the middle of the order. The Tigers now hold a 7.5-game cushion over Cleveland in the AL Central. Minnesota has dropped four of five and needs early traction to avoid another uphill night.

You can review how each club has been closing games and producing inning by inning in the latest MLB game results.

Keys to the Game

• First-pitch command for Mize. Fewer three-ball counts should buy him a sixth or seventh inning and keep Detroit’s bullpen fresh.
• Two-out execution for Matthews. The repertoire has bite; the final pitch of the at-bat will decide whether Tigers rallies end early or extend.
• Early-inning pressure. Detroit ambushed in the first on Friday; if that aggressiveness carries over, Matthews must land put-away pitches the first time through.
• Solo vs. multi-run homers. Both starters have allowed solo damage lately; the team that creates baserunners ahead of contact will flip that script.

Bettor’s Notebook

If you’re building a card around starter props or totals, the tendencies above pair well with Detroit’s recent first-inning profile and Minnesota’s two-out HR pattern. For deeper angles — umpire tendencies, park factors, and pitcher pitch-mix matchups — consult the comprehensive MLB Expert Betting Guide. When you’re ready to commit, premium analysis is available via Buy Picks, and you can cross-check consensus viewpoints in the rolling slate of MLB previews and daily MLB picks.

Outlook

This sets up as an execution game rather than a pure stuff mismatch. If Mize gets ahead and trims his pitch count, Detroit’s current momentum travels. If Matthews lands sliders and changeups in two-strike spots, Minnesota can tilt run prevention back in its favor and finally cash traffic behind the power.