Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Predictions August 18th 2025

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals August 18th 2025

The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. The game is set for Monday, August 18, 2025, at 6:40 PM. The Cardinals come into this game with a record of 61-64, sitting 4th in the NL Central. They have lost their last five games and are 4-6 in their last ten outings.

The Miami Marlins hold a 59-65 record and are 3rd in the NL East. They won their last game but have struggled with a 3-7 record in their last ten games. The game will be played under a clear sky, but the retractable roof at the stadium may negate any weather effects. Matthew Liberatore will start for the Cardinals, while Eury Pérez will take the mound for the Marlins.

Cardinals vs Marlins Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
• Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
• Date: Monday, August 18, 2025
• Betting Odds: Cardinals Moneyline +115, Marlins Moneyline -136, Cardinals Runline +1.5 (-186), Marlins Runline -1.5 (+154), Total Over 8.0 (-111), Total Under 8.0 (-109)

The Cardinals Can Win If…

The St. Louis Cardinals recently faced the New York Yankees, losing 8-4. Despite the loss, Lars Nootbaar showed strong performance with three hits. Yohel Pozo also contributed with a home run, driving in a run and scoring once.

The Cardinals have a solid batting average, ranking 9th in the league at .249. They also rank 5th in doubles with 213, showing their ability to hit for extra bases. This consistent hitting can be a key factor in their upcoming game.

Matthew Liberatore will be on the mound for the Cardinals. He has a 4.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29. With his ability to control the game, the Cardinals have a chance to secure a win against the Marlins.

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins are coming off a 5-3 win against the Boston Red Sox. Janson Junk pitched seven innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out six. Eric Wagaman, Jakob Marsee, and Dane Myers each hit home runs, showcasing their ability to score with power.

Offensively, the Marlins have a team batting average of .252, ranking them sixth in the league. They also have 207 doubles, which is sixth best, indicating their ability to get runners into scoring position. Their lineup features players like Xavier Edwards, who has a .302 batting average, and Agustín Ramírez, who has hit 18 home runs.

On the mound, Eury Pérez will start with an ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 0.98. His control and ability to limit base runners make him a key player for the Marlins. The team also ranks 12th in home runs given up, showing they can keep the ball in the park and minimize damage from opposing hitters.

The Lean

The Marlins are favored to win with a moneyline of -136. The Cardinals have a moneyline of +115. Given the Marlins’ slightly better batting average and on-base percentage, the recommendation is to pick the Marlins to win. The model projects a score of Marlins 5, Cardinals 4, supporting the Marlins’ moneyline.

The total for the game is set at 8.0 runs. The model projects a combined score of 9 runs. With both teams having mid-tier pitching stats, the recommendation is to take the over at 8.0 (-111). This suggests a higher-scoring game than the line indicates.

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Cardinals turn to Liberatore to reset the tone

The Cardinals hand the opener in Miami to left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who is searching for his first win since June 29 after dropping four straight decisions. This is his first season working exclusively as a starter, and he’s 6-10 with a 4.08 ERA in 22 outings. The transition showed promise early (3.70 ERA over his first 17 starts) but has wobbled lately (5.95 ERA across his last five, none longer than 4 1/3 innings). For full context on tonight’s slate, dive into the MLB previews hub.

What’s driving the slump?

Liberatore’s fastball typically sits around 95 mph for the first three innings before tailing off into the 93–91 range, which has coincided with shorter outings and louder contact the second time through the order. Career flags for this matchup are notable: a 12.00 ERA in six innings against Miami (four appearances) and a road ERA (5.10) that runs nearly a full run higher than at home (4.13). If you’re weighing side or totals, compare projections with today’s market on the MLB picks page.

Marlins counter with Eury Pérez

Right-hander Eury Pérez (5-3, 3.58) gets the ball for Miami. He’s already authored a quality start against St. Louis—one run over six innings with seven strikeouts back in 2023—and his environment splits still lean hard to LoanDepot Park (career 2.00 ERA at home versus 4.38 on the road). After a dominant July (3-1, 1.29 ERA), his August line (4.96 ERA in three starts) has been shakier even as the wins have followed (2-0).

Form guide and momentum

Neither club arrives flying. St. Louis has dropped five straight (all at home), capped by Sunday’s 8-4 loss to the Yankees. Miami just slogged through a 3-8 road trip and returns home looking for a reset. Track how recent swings have affected teams and totals with the rolling log on the MLB results page.

Injury update: Stowers to the IL

The Marlins placed All-Star left fielder Kyle Stowers on the injured list with an oblique strain. He’s expected to miss several weeks, putting the remainder of his season in doubt. It’s a major blow to a breakout campaign that featured 25 homers, 73 RBIs, 21 doubles, three triples and a .912 OPS—top-10 territory in the National League for much of the summer. Miami will need depth options and run prevention to cover that power loss against a contact-oriented Cardinals lineup.

Matchup keys

1. First-pass vs. second-pass Liberatore: If velocity holds early, St. Louis can push him through five; if it dips by the fourth, Oliver Marmol’s bullpen phone may ring fast.
2. Pérez’s home groove: His carry and command tend to play up at home; if the four-seamer gets ahead, his slider/change combo can chase whiffs.
3. Run environment: Miami’s home park has historically muted power; without Stowers, the Marlins may lean even more on pitching and sequencing.

For a deeper dive into how to translate these edges to wagers—sides, totals, F5 plays, and pitcher props—see the MLB expert betting guide.

Betting outlook

Lean low-scoring early if Pérez commands the zone and Liberatore’s first-time-through numbers hold. Live totals could be attractive if Liberatore’s velocity visibly dips by the fourth. Given Miami’s lineup hole without Stowers, the Cardinals’ path likely runs through making Pérez work and leveraging traffic with timely contact.

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