Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Predictions August 18th 2025

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles August 18th 2025

The Baltimore Orioles will visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Monday, August 18, 2025, for a night game. The Orioles hold a record of 57-67 and are ranked fifth in the AL East. They come into this game with a one-game winning streak and a 6-4 record over their last ten games.

The Red Sox, with a 68-57 record, sit second in the AL East. They have a strong home record of 41-23 but have lost their last game. The weather forecast for the game is mild with scattered clouds and a light breeze, making it a pleasant evening for baseball.

Orioles vs Red Sox Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
• Venue: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
• Date: Monday, August 18, 2025
• Betting Odds: Orioles Moneyline +103, Red Sox Moneyline -121, Orioles Runline +1.5 (-202), Red Sox Runline -1.5 (+171), Total Over 8.5 (-114), Total Under 8.5 (-106)

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a dominant 12-0 win against the Houston Astros. Dean Kremer was outstanding on the mound, pitching seven innings with seven strikeouts and allowing only three hits. Jordan Westburg led the offense with four hits and five RBIs, while Jackson Holliday and Jeremiah Jackson each contributed with multiple hits and runs.

One reason the Orioles can win is their power hitting. They rank 9th in home runs this season with 150. Their lineup features several players with double-digit home runs, including Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, both with 15 homers each.

The Orioles also have a strong starting pitcher in Trevor Rogers. He has an impressive ERA of 1.43 and a WHIP of 0.81. With Rogers on the mound, Baltimore has a good chance to keep the opposing team’s offense in check.

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Miami Marlins. Despite the loss, Garrett Crochet delivered a strong performance on the mound, pitching seven innings with eight strikeouts. Wilyer Abreu stood out at the plate, hitting a home run and driving in two runs.

Boston’s offense has been a key strength this season. They rank first in doubles with 255 and maintain a batting average of .253, placing them fifth in the league. Their ability to get on base and drive in runs makes them a threat to any pitching staff.

In the upcoming game against the Baltimore Orioles, Dustin May will take the mound for the Red Sox. May has shown potential, as evidenced by his performance against the Astros on August 12th, where he pitched six scoreless innings. With hitters like Trevor Story and Alex Bregman leading the lineup, the Red Sox have the tools to secure a win.

The Lean

The Red Sox are favored to win with a moneyline of -121. They have a stronger batting lineup, ranking 5th in batting average and on-base percentage. The Orioles have a moneyline of +103 and rank lower in these categories. My model projects a score of Red Sox 5, Orioles 4, making the Red Sox the pick to win straight up.

The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Red Sox have a solid pitching staff with a 3.74 ERA, ranking 6th, while the Orioles’ ERA is 4.71, ranking 27th. My model projects a total score of 9 runs. Considering the pitching and hitting stats, I recommend taking the over on the total.

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Injury Watch: Abreu Day-to-Day

Boston right fielder Wilyer Abreu exited Sunday’s 5–3 loss to Miami after feeling a cramp-like tightness in his right calf on a tag-up and score in the seventh. Postgame, Abreu said he doesn’t expect an injured list stint but anticipates sitting out both games vs. Baltimore with an eye toward returning for the upcoming series in New York. If he sits, Boston’s outfield mix will shuffle again as the club navigates a short series against a left-handed starter.

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Recent Form and Series Context

The Red Sox missed a sweep opportunity Sunday, surrendering a ninth-inning lead to the Marlins. Despite the late stumble, the message in the clubhouse emphasized stacking series wins and moving forward into a pivotal week that features two with Baltimore, a Wednesday off day, and then a four-game road set against the Yankees. In the division picture referenced here, Boston begins Monday five games back of the top spot.

Baltimore, meanwhile, arrives trending up. The Orioles have won four of five and took two of three in Houston, bookending the set with 7–0 and 12–0 shutouts. Jordan Westburg keyed Sunday’s rout with four hits, a three-run homer, and a career-high five RBIs. For scouting-style previews of every matchup on the board, hit the rolling hub of MLB game previews.

Probable Pitching Matchup

Red Sox: Dustin May (7–8, 4.67 ERA) makes his third Boston start since arriving at the trade deadline. He has faced the Orioles once (September 2019), posting two scoreless innings in a no-decision. Boston will look for May to provide early-zone strikes and soft contact to set the bullpen up in a short series.

Orioles: Left-hander Trevor Rogers (5–2, 1.43) gets the ball. According to the notes here, he opened his season on the IL with a knee issue, then returned May 24 at Fenway and delivered 6.1 scoreless in a 2–1 Orioles win. He’s 0–2 with a 2.45 ERA across four career starts against Boston, indicating competitive outings even if the decisions didn’t break his way. For angle-building and bankroll discipline, consult the expert MLB betting guide.

What to Watch

1. Fenway balance without Abreu: Boston loses right-field power and an athletic baserunner if he sits. Who absorbs those plate appearances, and how does the lineup’s platoon structure look versus a lefty?
2. First 5 leverage: With Rogers’ prior success in the venue and May still settling into Boston’s rhythm, early scoring (or lack thereof) could define the shape of both games.
3. Orioles’ middle-order thump: Westburg’s heater plus consistent traffic creation has sparked crooked numbers; Boston will try to disrupt timing with early-count strikes and in-zone movement.

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Trend Snapshot

Baltimore’s staff just posted a pair of shutouts at Houston, suggesting form and sequencing are sharp. Boston, despite the late-inning loss Sunday, has emphasized series-by-series momentum. Keep an eye on bullpen usage in Game 1; in a two-game set, reliever leverage quickly snowballs into Game 2. After each contest, you can quickly verify box scores and splits via the rolling archive of MLB game results.

Outlook

Two-game series often hinge on the opener. If Rogers again locates and suppresses hard contact at Fenway, Baltimore’s recent run prevention could carry the day. Conversely, if Boston’s right-handed bats win early counts and May delivers efficient innings, the Red Sox can flip the script and set up the off day with a split or mini-sweep before the four-gamer in the Bronx.